Severe Thunderstorm Warning 381, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
544 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

.AVIATION...
ISOl to SCT TSRA developing across the forecast area and expect
convection to become more widespread through the evening hours
with strong gusty winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes possible.
Convection to wind down from west to east after about 09Z
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Scattered showers developing across southern Arkansas early
this afternoon. Lots of low clouds are keeping temperatures
in the 60s to lower 70s in most areas.

18z sounding from KLIT showing about 1300 J/kg of surface
based CAPE, with some capping noted. Perfect loaded gun
sounding, with release of more pronounced convection/storms
in the next few hours. This will happen in central/southern
sections and lifting into the northern counties this evening.

Main upper level feature/cold front still lagging to the
west, and that will come into play toward midnight. Another
round of storms will arrive in western Arkansas from eastern
Oklahoma/northeast Texas. From there, storms will sweep
eastward across the state, and should weaken as atmosphere
becomes less unstable.

While instability will be marginal during the event, wind fields
assocaited with the incoming upper system will be out of this
world. Shear values/turning of winds will increase markedly
through the evening, making wind damage and isolated tornadoes
more likely.

Another aspect of the event will be the rain. From central
into northeast Arkansas, a swath of two to three inch amounts
is expected through dawn Saturday. Given this much rain, flash
flooding could occur in places.

All precipitation will sweep to the east Saturday morning, with
rapid clearing behind the upper system. Breezy conditions will be
noted, with mild air still in place and above average temperatures
in the forecast.

It will remain mild Saturday night/Sunday, but a new cold front
will push through the area. This will bring much cooler air in the
extended period.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

Expect a much cooler start to your work week with nearly zonal
flow. There remains the chance for slight pops on Monday lingering
across North Arkansas. Temperatures will be coolest on
Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s by
Tuesday night. The weather will be pretty benign until Friday when
the next storm system will approach from the plains. Substantial
precipitation will be possible with this system next weekend. Stay
tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...19 / Long Term...57
Aviation...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
440 AM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
440 AM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some patchy fog will be possible across northern portions of the
area...with a few areas seeing visibilities dropping to less than
1 mile at times.

Thunderstorms will become more numerous late this afternoon
through the overnight period...with the confidence in seeing some
severe weather increasing during that timeframe. Any storm that
develop will have the potential to become strong to severe late
this afternoon through this evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat expected...with tornadoes also possible. Some large
hail may also be seen.

The best chances for seeing severe weather will be across the
southwestern half of the area...or generally along and southwest
of a line from Clarksville to Little Rock to Monticello. The
threat for seeing severe weather will be more isolated further
northeast of this line.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast...with locally
higher amounts possible. This may lead to some isolated flash
flooding.

Expect the threat for thunderstorms and severe weather to decrease
late tonight through early Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

62/44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
439 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018

ARZ032-044-302330-
Pulaski AR-Faulkner AR-
439 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FAULKNER AND
EASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CST...

At 438 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Geyer Springs, or near Southwest Little Rock, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    North Little Rock...
Sherwood...                       Jacksonville...
West Little Rock...               Maumelle...
Downtown Little Rock...           North Little Rock Airport...
Little Rock AFB...                Southwest Little Rock...
Wrightsville...                   Argenta...
Otter Creek...                    Gravel Ridge...
Ironton...                        Olmstead...
Protho Junction...                Lakewood...
Camp Robinson...                  Geyer Springs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 9208 3458 9225 3458 9230 3461 9235
      3463 9235 3463 9238 3467 9245 3493 9240
      3502 9240 3501 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 217DEG 32KT 3468 9231

Cavanaugh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
543 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018

ARZ022-023-031-010030-
Pope AR-Van Buren AR-Conway AR-
543 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...NORTH
CENTRAL CONWAY AND SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CST...

At 542 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Happy Bend, or near Morrilton, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jerusalem...                      Happy Bend...
Cleveland...                      Hattieville...
St. Vincent...                    Blick...
Appleton...                       Brock Creek Campground...
Blackwell...                      Wonderview...
Economy...                        Kenwood...
Macedonia in Conway County...     Mountain Man Trailhead...

LAT...LON 3519 9277 3520 9290 3558 9297 3556 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 180DEG 25KT 3522 9282

Cavanaugh