Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

736 
WWUS54 KLZK 110302
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
902 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

ARC053-110311-
/O.CAN.KLZK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180311T0330Z/
Grant AR-
902 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
southeastern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3390 9124 3370 9162 3406 9229 3406 9223
      3413 9223 3434 9195 3398 9139 3397 9135
      3396 9136 3395 9135 3396 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 308DEG 28KT 3406 9217 3420 9197 3402 9166 

$$

ARC025-041-043-069-079-110330-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180311T0330Z/
Cleveland AR-Desha AR-Drew AR-Jefferson AR-Lincoln AR-
902 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...WEST CENTRAL DESHA...NORTHEASTERN
DREW...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 901 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Kedron to near Pine Bluff to near Grady, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluff...                     Dumas...
Star City...                      Gould...
Grady...                          Mitchellville...
Watson...                         Winchester...
Whitefield...                     Woodville...
Douglas...                        Nebo...
Feenyville...                     Cottondale...
Omega...                          Linwood...
Cane Creek State Park...          Madding...
Mills...                          Kedron...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 9124 3370 9162 3406 9229 3406 9223
      3413 9223 3434 9195 3398 9139 3397 9135
      3396 9136 3395 9135 3396 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 308DEG 28KT 3406 9217 3420 9197 3402 9166 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

62

375 
WWUS54 KLZK 110317
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
917 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

ARC025-041-043-069-079-110330-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180311T0330Z/
Cleveland AR-Desha AR-Drew AR-Jefferson AR-Lincoln AR-
917 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CST
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...WEST CENTRAL DESHA...NORTHEASTERN
DREW...SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 917 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Kedron to near Linwood to near
Gould, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
Dumas...                          Star City...
Gould...                          Grady...
Mitchellville...                  Watson...
Winchester...                     Nebo...
Feenyville...                     Whitefield...
Omega...                          Linwood...
Cane Creek State Park...          Mills...
Woodville...                      Douglas...
Garrett Bridge...                 Tarry...
Gourd...                          Florence...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 9124 3370 9162 3400 9218 3414 9199
      3418 9170 3398 9139 3397 9135 3396 9136
      3395 9135 3396 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 270DEG 30KT 3399 9205 3413 9183 3398 9152 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

62

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

.AVIATION...11/00Z TAF CYCLE

Convection wl cont to expand in coverage and track SEWD acrs
central and eventually SE AR later this evening. Large hail and
gusty winds possible with the stronger storms. VFR conds this
evening, wl eventually bcm MVFR overnight. Expect lower conds in
heavier storms. Improving conds expected later Sun as a front
moves thru and NW winds incrs to arnd 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to
20 kts. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 301 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

The main concern for the short term is obviously the chance for
severe weather this evening and overnight.

Regional radar imagery shows some convection has initiated in
western Arkansas and back into eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.
The Arkansas convection is likely aided by orographic lift as low
level flow is perpendicular to the Ouachitas, while the Oklahoma
convection has sprouted up on the leading edge of upper height
falls and low level moisture flux. This is also colocated with
the steepest model forecast mid-level lapse rates.

With time the OK convection will propagate east-southeastward
through Arkansas, generally paralleling the I-40 corridor to the
south to the Little Rock metro, and further southeast towards Pine
Bluff, etc. Storms should be more isolated in nature early on,
but will coalesce into a linear storm mode as convection spreads
southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Initially the
threat is expected to be large hail, primarily for areas in SPC's
slight risk area in Arkansas west of Russellville or thereabouts.
Sufficient CAPE through the hail growth region coupled with strong
mid-level lapse rates will support severe sized hail. As the
evening wears on and storms transitions to a more linear mode, the
wind threat will become more prominent. The tornado threat for
this event is pretty low, albeit it not zero.

High-res CAMs suggest that convection/rainfall will clear out of
the forecast area pretty quickly late tonight. However other
models hold on to precip chances through mid-Sunday morning as the
upper low driving this system swings through southern Missouri
and northeast Arkansas. Trended more towards that solution but
would not be surprised to see very little rain after about 3am-5am
Sunday morning.

Rather tranquil weather will round out the short term after
rainfall clears the area Sunday morning.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

At the beginning of the period, longwave pattern will still be
fairly amplified with a cutoff low centered over the northern Great
Lakes region and a ridge centered over the western conus. At the
surface, cool high pressure will be predominant, with northerly
winds keeping temperatures below seasonal averages.

Mid to late week, the upper flow will become more zonal. At the
surface, a Pacific cold front will approach the region. Rain chances
will return to the forecast by Friday as the front slows down, upper
flow gradually shifts to the southwest, and several upper level
impulses move through and interact with the boundary.

Temperatures will warm back above average as the surface flow shifts
around to the south late in the week.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
334 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
overnight hours, primarily over central and southern Arkansas.
The main threats will be strong winds and damaging hail. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Subfreezing temperatures are in the forecast, mainly across
northern and west-central Arkansas the first half of next week.
Sheltered valley areas will be most susceptible to seeing a
freeze.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Severe storm
reports are requested.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
817 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             WATSON CHAPEL           34.19N  92.07W
03/10/2018  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800015

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
823 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

ARZ043-054>056-110245-
Hot Spring-Grant-Saline-Jefferson-
823 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN SALINE AND EAST CENTRAL HOT SPRING
COUNTIES...

At 821 PM CST, strong thunderstorms were located in Grant County,
moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan, Tull, Prattsville, Poyen, Lamont, Cane Creek, Jenkins Ferry
State Park, Dogwood, East End, Sulphur Springs, Belfast, Ain, Cross
Roads in Grant County, Fenter, Sardis, Jefferson, Slabtown, Prague,
Buie and Ico.

LAT...LON 3436 9275 3455 9240 3439 9215 3425 9217
      3420 9211 3406 9223 3406 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 287DEG 30KT 3420 9238

Cross

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
826 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW HARRIS BRAKE      34.98N  92.80W
03/10/2018                   PERRY              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN... BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 9 AND 300.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800016

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
826 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW HARRIS BRAKE      34.98N  92.80W
03/10/2018                   PERRY              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN... BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 9 AND 300.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800016

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
828 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             TULL                    34.45N  92.58W
03/10/2018  E1.75 INCH       GRANT              AR   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800017

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
835 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

ARZ064-065-069-110300-
Drew-Lincoln-Desha-
835 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DESHA...
NORTHEASTERN DREW AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 835 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Mills, or 11 miles west of Dumas, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dumas, Mitchellville, Winchester, Omega, Mills, Garrett Bridge,
Pendleton, Gourd, Calhoun, Florence, Tyro, Rose Hill, Reedville,
Yukon, Garnett, Coleman, Pickens in Desha County and Avery.

LAT...LON 3371 9176 3388 9184 3402 9143 3402 9142
      3400 9140 3399 9140 3398 9138 3376 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 249DEG 13KT 3383 9168

Cross