Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

.AVIATION...11/00Z TAF CYCLE

Convection wl cont to expand in coverage and track SEWD acrs
central and eventually SE AR later this evening. Large hail and
gusty winds possible with the stronger storms. VFR conds this
evening, wl eventually bcm MVFR overnight. Expect lower conds in
heavier storms. Improving conds expected later Sun as a front
moves thru and NW winds incrs to arnd 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to
20 kts. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 301 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

The main concern for the short term is obviously the chance for
severe weather this evening and overnight.

Regional radar imagery shows some convection has initiated in
western Arkansas and back into eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.
The Arkansas convection is likely aided by orographic lift as low
level flow is perpendicular to the Ouachitas, while the Oklahoma
convection has sprouted up on the leading edge of upper height
falls and low level moisture flux. This is also colocated with
the steepest model forecast mid-level lapse rates.

With time the OK convection will propagate east-southeastward
through Arkansas, generally paralleling the I-40 corridor to the
south to the Little Rock metro, and further southeast towards Pine
Bluff, etc. Storms should be more isolated in nature early on,
but will coalesce into a linear storm mode as convection spreads
southeast through the evening and overnight hours. Initially the
threat is expected to be large hail, primarily for areas in SPC's
slight risk area in Arkansas west of Russellville or thereabouts.
Sufficient CAPE through the hail growth region coupled with strong
mid-level lapse rates will support severe sized hail. As the
evening wears on and storms transitions to a more linear mode, the
wind threat will become more prominent. The tornado threat for
this event is pretty low, albeit it not zero.

High-res CAMs suggest that convection/rainfall will clear out of
the forecast area pretty quickly late tonight. However other
models hold on to precip chances through mid-Sunday morning as the
upper low driving this system swings through southern Missouri
and northeast Arkansas. Trended more towards that solution but
would not be surprised to see very little rain after about 3am-5am
Sunday morning.

Rather tranquil weather will round out the short term after
rainfall clears the area Sunday morning.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

At the beginning of the period, longwave pattern will still be
fairly amplified with a cutoff low centered over the northern Great
Lakes region and a ridge centered over the western conus. At the
surface, cool high pressure will be predominant, with northerly
winds keeping temperatures below seasonal averages.

Mid to late week, the upper flow will become more zonal. At the
surface, a Pacific cold front will approach the region. Rain chances
will return to the forecast by Friday as the front slows down, upper
flow gradually shifts to the southwest, and several upper level
impulses move through and interact with the boundary.

Temperatures will warm back above average as the surface flow shifts
around to the south late in the week.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
334 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
overnight hours, primarily over central and southern Arkansas.
The main threats will be strong winds and damaging hail. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Subfreezing temperatures are in the forecast, mainly across
northern and west-central Arkansas the first half of next week.
Sheltered valley areas will be most susceptible to seeing a
freeze.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Severe storm
reports are requested.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44

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