Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Louisville, KY

527 
WWUS53 KLMK 312341
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
641 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC003-009-171-312351-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-180531T2345Z/
Monroe KY-Allen KY-Barren KY-
641 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MONROE...
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN AND SOUTHERN BARREN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM
CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3681 8620 3692 8616 3686 8581 3671 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 289DEG 33KT 3677 8585 

$$

EBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
552 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 552 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Will end Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 for the remaining few
counties, as the convection has shifted into the very southern tier
of the Commonwealth. Cells continue to develop back across western
Kentucky, so even as the severe threat diminishes we will have to
continue to monitor the hydro threat, for possible southward
expansion (or shifting) of the Flash Flood Watch.

Issued at 450 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Squall line has pushed through the Bluegrass, allowing us to drop
all but the southernmost tier of counties from Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 136. Moderate stratiform rain continues across the Bluegrass
region, and will slow the recovery of any flooded areas from earlier
this afternoon, so flood warnings and advisories continue into early
evening.

Main convective focus is across south-central Kentucky, where strong
surface-based CAPE is still present, as well as around 1300 J/kg of
downdraft CAPE. We'll handle that with warnings rather than a Watch
extension that will end up completely beyond the original watch.

Otherwise keeping an eye on the next round of convection across
western Kentucky, as that will continue at least some threat of
severe weather, and a bigger threat of flash flooding well into the
night.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 31 2018

...Severe Weather Through This Evening Including Flash Flooding...

Several clusters and lines of strong to severe thunderstorms
occurring across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky
today. The storms have had a history of producing damaging winds,
bringing down power lines and trees. Torrential rainfall has led to
flash flooding in some areas.

In the near term, the heart of the forecast concerns is over the
next several hours. Environment certainly remains supportive of
strong to severe storms in the next 2-3 hours as the long-lived line
of storms continues east of I-65. While some areas have been
convectively overturned, enough instability recover may lead to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Much more uncertainty resides in how the evening forecast will play
out. The HRRR has been very consistent in showing additional
convective initiation across southern IL, western KY in the 3-4
hours and then this propagate toward south-central and central
Kentucky late this afternoon through the evening. This seems
reasonable given that those areas have seen little thunderstorm
activity and have plenty of instability to work with. Additional,
shear is expected to be on the increase in the evening, so despite
some waning instability, better shear will maintain the severe
threat there.

Flash Flooding will also be a concern across most of the area. The
environment is certainly supportive of excessive rainfall given
PWATs are running 1.7 to near 2.0 inches and dewpoints remain in the
low 70s. The earlier storms produced flooding across the Bluegrass.
Flash Flood guidance is about 2.0 inches in 1 hour, but in areas
that picked up high amounts already, those values aren't necessarily
representative and are lower.

Hi-res models are consistent showing a swath of 2-4 inches locally
across central KY and perhaps up into southern IN. This is due to
the several rounds of storms. With this in mind, went with a Flash
Flood Watch through this evening.

Tonight - Friday

Storms will be on the decrease late tonight giving way to scattered
showers and isolated storms overnight but severe storms are not
expected. The current storms should push an effective boundary into
Tennessee. Most of Friday is expected to be less active but another
front drops through from the north in the afternoon/evening hours.
It could fire up a few thunderstorms but aren't expected to be
severe. Highs will be in the 80s.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Drier and less humid conditions are expected on Saturday. Highs are
expected to top out in the 80s.  For Saturday night and into Sunday,
another quick moving upper level disturbance is forecast to cross
the region. This feature will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The best chances for rainfall would be
late Saturday night and through Sunday morning with a drier
conditions arriving Sunday evening. Lows Saturday night look to cool
into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday staying in the lower 80s.

Next week looks to be less active. The model consensus was used to
show mostly dry conditions Monday through Friday in the northwest
flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Temperatures will
gradually warm from near normal to well above normal through the
week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms will work across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky through this evening.
Currently, strongest line moving into HNB now will affect SDF and
LEX by mid afternoon. Damaging wind gusts primary threat but also
hail and flash flooding.

Additional storm development is possible toward 7-8 pm EDT but is
less certain depending on how afternoon storms evolve.

Overnight, storms are expected to end giving way to just showers.
Some potential for fog where heaviest rain falls as winds are likely
to be light, though convective debris clouds may preclude fog
development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for INZ076-
     077-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-071-074-076>078-
     081-082.

&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...ZT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 /246 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail will be possible in the
strongest storms. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Friday
afternoon and evening. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible late Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

DM/MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE LEBANON           37.58N 85.21W
05/31/2018                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER CLOSED SHORTLINE PIKE NEAR HIGHWAY 68.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE SAINT MARY         37.64N 85.30W
05/31/2018                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER CLOSED A SECTION OF ST. ROSE
            ROAD.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE LEBANON           37.59N 85.18W
05/31/2018                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING HUNDLEY LANE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
656 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LORETTO           37.62N 85.37W
05/31/2018                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ON LORETTO ROAD.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW LEBANON           37.57N 85.26W
05/31/2018                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED IN LEBANON, AND IN
            OTHER PARTS OF MARION COUNTY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE RICH POND          36.93N 86.46W
05/31/2018  M55 MPH          WARREN             KY   MESONET

            MEASURED BY KY MESONET AT THE WKU FARM.

&&

MRC