Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Louisville, KY

946 
WWUS53 KLMK 312133
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
433 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC001-003-053-057-169-171-207-312200-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180531T2200Z/
Clinton KY-Russell KY-Monroe KY-Allen KY-Cumberland KY-Metcalfe KY-
Adair KY-
433 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL...MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN...
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN METCALFE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 431 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from 7 miles southwest of Jamestown to near Lamb, moving 
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Tompkinsville, Albany, Jamestown, Burkesville, Leslie, Gamaliel,
Fountain Run, Littrell, Desda and Cartwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8614 3682 8581 3684 8574 3686 8574
      3694 8545 3699 8521 3696 8494 3692 8496
      3686 8506 3677 8501 3670 8502 3662 8499
      3662 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 320DEG 22KT 3691 8516 3656 8582 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EBW

769 
WWUS53 KLMK 312147
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
447 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC001-169-312157-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180531T2200Z/
Metcalfe KY-Adair KY-
447 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN METCALFE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3664 8614 3682 8581 3684 8574 3682 8558
      3684 8558 3687 8560 3685 8556 3687 8551
      3694 8545 3693 8523 3698 8509 3696 8494
      3692 8496 3686 8506 3677 8501 3670 8502
      3662 8499 3662 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 283DEG 20KT 3688 8506 3673 8598 

$$

KYC003-053-057-171-207-312200-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180531T2200Z/
Clinton KY-Russell KY-Monroe KY-Allen KY-Cumberland KY-
447 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL...MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

At 447 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Cabell to 11 miles east of Scottsville, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Tompkinsville, Albany, Jamestown, Burkesville, Leslie, Gamaliel,
Fountain Run, Littrell, Desda and Cartwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8614 3682 8581 3684 8574 3682 8558
      3684 8558 3687 8560 3685 8556 3687 8551
      3694 8545 3693 8523 3698 8509 3696 8494
      3692 8496 3686 8506 3677 8501 3670 8502
      3662 8499 3662 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 283DEG 20KT 3688 8506 3673 8598 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EBW

057 
WWUS53 KLMK 312157
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
457 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC003-053-057-171-207-312205-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180531T2200Z/
Clinton KY-Russell KY-Monroe KY-Allen KY-Cumberland KY-
457 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN
RUSSELL...MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and torrential rain are still ongoing with these thunderstorms.

Extremely heavy rain is occurring with these storms. Flash flooding 
is the main threat. 

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3664 8614 3682 8581 3684 8574 3682 8558
      3684 8558 3687 8560 3685 8556 3687 8551
      3694 8545 3693 8523 3698 8509 3696 8494
      3692 8496 3686 8506 3677 8501 3670 8502
      3662 8499 3662 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 270DEG 22KT 3685 8501 3670 8593 

$$

EBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
451 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Squall line has pushed through the Bluegrass, allowing us to drop
all but the southernmost tier of counties from Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 136. Moderate stratiform rain continues across the Bluegrass
region, and will slow the recovery of any flooded areas from earlier
this afternoon, so flood warnings and advisories continue into early
evening.

Main convective focus is across south-central Kentucky, where strong
surface-based CAPE is still present, as well as around 1300 J/kg of
downdraft CAPE. We'll handle that with warnings rather than a Watch
extension that will end up completely beyond the original watch.

Otherwise keeping an eye on the next round of convection across
western Kentucky, as that will continue at least some threat of
severe weather, and a bigger threat of flash flooding well into the
night.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 31 2018

...Severe Weather Through This Evening Including Flash Flooding...

Several clusters and lines of strong to severe thunderstorms
occurring across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky
today. The storms have had a history of producing damaging winds,
bringing down power lines and trees. Torrential rainfall has led to
flash flooding in some areas.

In the near term, the heart of the forecast concerns is over the
next several hours. Environment certainly remains supportive of
strong to severe storms in the next 2-3 hours as the long-lived line
of storms continues east of I-65. While some areas have been
convectively overturned, enough instability recover may lead to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Much more uncertainty resides in how the evening forecast will play
out. The HRRR has been very consistent in showing additional
convective initiation across southern IL, western KY in the 3-4
hours and then this propagate toward south-central and central
Kentucky late this afternoon through the evening. This seems
reasonable given that those areas have seen little thunderstorm
activity and have plenty of instability to work with. Additional,
shear is expected to be on the increase in the evening, so despite
some waning instability, better shear will maintain the severe
threat there.

Flash Flooding will also be a concern across most of the area. The
environment is certainly supportive of excessive rainfall given
PWATs are running 1.7 to near 2.0 inches and dewpoints remain in the
low 70s. The earlier storms produced flooding across the Bluegrass.
Flash Flood guidance is about 2.0 inches in 1 hour, but in areas
that picked up high amounts already, those values aren't necessarily
representative and are lower.

Hi-res models are consistent showing a swath of 2-4 inches locally
across central KY and perhaps up into southern IN. This is due to
the several rounds of storms. With this in mind, went with a Flash
Flood Watch through this evening.

Tonight - Friday

Storms will be on the decrease late tonight giving way to scattered
showers and isolated storms overnight but severe storms are not
expected. The current storms should push an effective boundary into
Tennessee. Most of Friday is expected to be less active but another
front drops through from the north in the afternoon/evening hours.
It could fire up a few thunderstorms but aren't expected to be
severe. Highs will be in the 80s.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Drier and less humid conditions are expected on Saturday. Highs are
expected to top out in the 80s.  For Saturday night and into Sunday,
another quick moving upper level disturbance is forecast to cross
the region. This feature will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The best chances for rainfall would be
late Saturday night and through Sunday morning with a drier
conditions arriving Sunday evening. Lows Saturday night look to cool
into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday staying in the lower 80s.

Next week looks to be less active. The model consensus was used to
show mostly dry conditions Monday through Friday in the northwest
flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Temperatures will
gradually warm from near normal to well above normal through the
week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms will work across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky through this evening.
Currently, strongest line moving into HNB now will affect SDF and
LEX by mid afternoon. Damaging wind gusts primary threat but also
hail and flash flooding.

Additional storm development is possible toward 7-8 pm EDT but is
less certain depending on how afternoon storms evolve.

Overnight, storms are expected to end giving way to just showers.
Some potential for fog where heaviest rain falls as winds are likely
to be light, though convective debris clouds may preclude fog
development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for INZ076-
     077-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-071-074-076>078-
     081-082.

&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...ZT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 /246 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail will be possible in the
strongest storms. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Friday
afternoon and evening. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible late Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

DM/MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
459 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MITCHELLSBURG       37.62N 84.95W
05/31/2018                   BOYLE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MITCHELLSBURG ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
502 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S BURGIN              37.71N 84.76W
05/31/2018                   MERCER             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER HWY 33 SOUTH BETWEEN PRISON AND
            NORTH POINT TRAINING CENTER.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
503 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE HARRODSBURG       37.73N 84.83W
05/31/2018                   MERCER             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF WATER OVER THE HWY 127 BYPASS
            SOUTH OF HARRODSBURG.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
511 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N CARLISLE            38.38N 84.03W
05/31/2018                   NICHOLAS           KY   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

MDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
514 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE FINNEY             36.94N 86.07W
05/31/2018                   BARREN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD ON JOE MORRIS RD NEAR
            FINNEY RD.

&&

KAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
517 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N LEBANON             37.62N 85.25W
05/31/2018                   MARION             KY   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING.

&&

RJS