Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Louisville, KY

479 
WGUS73 KLMK 312111
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
511 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC021-155-167-229-312200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180531T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mercer KY-Marion KY-Washington KY-Boyle KY-
511 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MERCER...CENTRAL MARION...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BOYLE
COUNTIES...

At 510 PM EDT, local law enforcement reported some roads closed due 
to high water. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. The 
heaviest of the rains are over, but it will take some time for flood 
waters to recede. Please heed any road closure signs.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Danville, Harrodsburg, Lebanon, Springfield, Junction City, Loretto,
Mackville, Brumfield, Burkes Spring and Alum Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 8467 3762 8466 3762 8469 3759 8472
      3753 8489 3753 8500 3755 8500 3755 8503
      3751 8504 3759 8544 3773 8540 3775 8537
      3775 8483 3768 8468 3766 8471 3765 8468
      3764 8469 3764 8468 3765 8465

$$

RJS

709 
WGUS73 KLMK 312157
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
557 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC021-155-167-229-312206-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180531T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mercer KY-Marion KY-Washington KY-Boyle KY-
557 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MERCER...CENTRAL
MARION...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BOYLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM
EDT...

The heavy rain has ended, but several rivers/creeks likely are 
slowly receding. Thus an areal flood warning has been issued to 
replace the Flash Flood Warning. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3764 8467 3762 8466 3762 8469 3759 8472
      3753 8489 3753 8500 3755 8500 3755 8503
      3751 8504 3759 8544 3773 8540 3775 8537
      3775 8483 3768 8468 3766 8471 3765 8468
      3764 8469 3764 8468 3765 8465

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
115 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

The 12z sounding from ILN and a recent AMDAR sounding out of SDF
showed an inversion between 950 and 850 mb with decent lapse rates
above. This elevated instability in conjunction with a weak
shortwave moving through is aiding the development of scattered
thunderstorms across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.
Other than lightning and brief downpours, small hail is possible.
This activity should begin to weaken as the morning hours goes on.

Upstream across southeast Missouri, a convective complex exists and
could be the focus for the first round of thunderstorms across our
area by mid afternoon. The recent runs of the HRRR are handling the
current activity pretty well and was leaned on for the update. As we
get into the afternoon, the moisture rich environment (low 70s
dewpoints) should allow for 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and then
with the approaching impulse from Missouri, this should trigger
additional convection. The current thinking is that this will be
across southern IN and north central KY. Storms would then drop
south/east during the late afternoon. Additional storm development
is possible across western KY and southwest IN that would then move
into central KY later this evening.

The Enhanced Risk was adjusted eastward with the morning update to
include more of our forecast area and looks good for the area. The
main hazards are damaging winds, but hail and heavy rain are still
threats. A tornado threat still exists if line segments get oriented
perpendicular to the 0-3km bulk shear vectors.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 31 2018

....Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Tonight...

Complicated and low confidence forecast today and tonight as models
struggle to come to an agreement with convective solutions. To start
off the morning, some models indicate scattered showers and storms
firing up near 09z across parts of western KY. Observed 31.00z 500mb
temperatures over southwestern MO indicate slightly cooler
temperatures than surrounding upper air sites, and SPC 700-400mb
differential vorticity advection has shown some positive values over
western IL/KY this morning, so it's possible a very subtle shortwave
could be present near the southern MO/IL border at this hour and
could aid in the development of precipitation later this morning. In
any case, will keep isolated to scattered PoPs in the forecast this
morning to account for the potential. All of that activity, if it
forms, should push east of the CWA by 16-17z.

Attention then turns to this afternoon and evening, where the threat
for strong to severe storms remains possible. Much of the storm
activity we see during this timeframe will be highly dependent on
how the current shortwave and convection over Oklahoma/Kansas
evolves. Some high-res models that are currently handling that
convection well are the 3km NAM and HRRR, but both show conflicting
scenarios for convective evolution this afternoon and evening. It's
possible we may end up with a couple rounds of storms (one this
afternoon, another after sunset). Deep layer shear begins to
increase after 20z as the shortwave over Oklahoma approaches, so
convection (if it develops) during the late afternoon and evening
will have 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear to work with. Assuming the
atmosphere recovers from any potential morning convection, we should
see moderate to high instability in place for storms. The
combination of shear and instability will support strong to severe
storms, which should mainly be in the form of multi-cell clusters
and linear/bowing segments. Isolated activity, including supercells,
would be more likely west of the CWA with initial convection before
storms become outflow dominant and turn linear. The main severe
weather threat with these storms would be damaging wind gusts and
heavy rainfall. Large hail may be possible in some of the stronger
embedded or isolated cells that move into our area. Low level shear
will remain weak through the duration of the event, so the tornado
threat should be low... but a quick spin-up can't be ruled out where
lingering outflow or differential heating boundaries interact with
storms. Additionally, 0-3km bulk shear may exceed 30kts this
evening, and should the 0-3km shear vector be line-normal to bowing
segments, a brief spin-up tornado could be possible.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Cloudy conditions are likely early Friday in the wake of expected
convective activity from the short term period.  Scattered showers
and some thunderstorms may be ongoing across southern KY in the
morning.  Some scattered redevelopment is possible in the afternoon
hours, with the best chances mainly south of the WK and BG Parkways.
Overall, the forecast has not changed dramatically with 30-40 PoPs
in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower-mid 80s across the
region.  Showers and storms are expected to diminish quite rapidly
after sunset with lows Friday night cooling into the mid-upper 60s.

For Saturday, latest guidance still suggestive of a dry and slightly
less humid day.  We'll start off the day with partly cloudy skies
with highs ranging from the lower 80s in the Bluegrass and mid-upper
80s in the I-65 corridor and points west.  For Saturday night and
into Sunday, another quick moving upper level disturbance is
forecast to cross the region.  This feature will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms to the area.  The best chances for
rainfall would be late Saturday night and through the day on Sunday
with a drier conditions arriving Sunday evening.  Lows Saturday
night look to cool into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday
staying in the lower 80s.

As we move into next week, the latest guidance continues to indicate
that the Ohio Valley will remain in a northwesterly flow with a
large area of high pressure building into the region.   This set up
should result in drier, cooler, and less humid conditions that what
we've seen over the last week.   A few week perturbations will work
through the region Monday night and into Tuesday.  However, the
trend for now is to keep things dry during the period.  Though, we
suspect that some light PoPs may be required here in later
forecasts.

By midweek, we should see some more ridging attempt to build in from
the west.  However, that may be hampered a bit by a deep cut off low
in the NE US.  This would keep our flow, quite northerly for early
June and keep temperatures a bit below normal through at least
Thursday.  The latest blends keep highs in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s over the bluegrass region with highs in the low-mid 80s in
the I-65 corridor and points west.  Overnight will likely dip into
the upper 50s to low 60s through the period.

Looking a little further down the road, dry weather and warmer
weather may attempt to build further east by late week.  Much of the
heat and dry conditions will remain fully entrenched across the
central Plains.  A series of mid-level perturbations will work
eastward within the northerly stream of the jet and this may
suppress the ridge a little further south and west over time.  This
would set up the Ohio Valley for a northwest flow type regime with
a threat of MCS's dropping in from the northwest by next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms will work across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky through this evening.
Currently, strongest line moving into HNB now will affect SDF and
LEX by mid afternoon. Damaging wind gusts primary threat but also
hail and flash flooding.

Additional storm development is possible toward 7-8 pm EDT but is
less certain depending on how afternoon storms evolve.

Overnight, storms are expected to end giving way to just showers.
Some potential for fog where heaviest rain falls as winds are likely
to be light, though convective debris clouds may preclude fog
development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...ZT
Short Term...DM
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...ZT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 /246 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail will be possible in the
strongest storms. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Friday
afternoon and evening. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible late Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

DM/MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
140 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYZ063-064-311915-
Hart-Green-
140 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREEN AND SOUTHEASTERN HART
COUNTIES...

At 140 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Munfordville, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensburg, Monroe, Bloyd, Lobb, Donansburg, Whickerville, Grab,
Newt, Pierce and Gresham.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3718 8569 3717 8574 3731 8581 3742 8556
      3737 8549 3730 8544 3730 8543 3725 8539
      3724 8539 3724 8540 3723 8541 3722 8537
      3721 8537 3715 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 250DEG 17KT 3725 8570

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N VALLEY STATION      38.12N 85.86W
05/31/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN.

&&

KAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
241 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYZ053-054-065-311915-
Marion-Taylor-Larue-
241 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LARUE...
MARION AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 241 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Campbellsville, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Raywick, Saint Joseph, Attilla, Spurlington, Belltown,
Jessietown, Badger, Saloma and Mac.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3747 8559 3765 8531 3739 8519 3737 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 250DEG 17KT 3744 8553

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
243 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LOUISVILLE INTL AIRPORT 38.17N 85.74W
05/31/2018  M59 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   ASOS

            ASOS STATION SDF, LOUISVILLE INTL AIRPORT.

&&

KAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N SPEARS              37.96N 84.45W
05/31/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON ARMSTRONG MILL
            AND DELONG IN LEXINGTON. LINES DOWN ACROSS A
            CAR WITH PEOPLE INSIDE.

&&

CRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOUISVILLE INTL AIRPORT 38.17N 85.74W
05/31/2018  M59 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM LOUISVILLE INTL AIRPORT. ASOS STATION
            SDF, LOUISVILLE INTL AIRPORT.

&&

KAC