Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Louisville, KY

044 
WWUS53 KLMK 312016
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
416 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC087-312025-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-180531T2030Z/
Green KY-
416 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GREEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3730 8543 3730 8544 3732 8544 3739 8551
      3745 8531 3744 8529 3726 8523 3725 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 253DEG 24KT 3734 8534 

$$

KYC217-312030-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-180531T2030Z/
Taylor KY-
416 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY...

At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Campbellsville,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Campbellsville, Taylor County Airport, Bengal, Arista, South
Campbellsville, Saloma, Hobson, Wrights, Elk Horn and Durhamtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 8543 3730 8544 3732 8544 3739 8551
      3745 8531 3744 8529 3726 8523 3725 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 253DEG 24KT 3734 8534 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 31 2018

...Severe Weather Through This Evening Including Flash Flooding...

Several clusters and lines of strong to severe thunderstorms
occurring across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky
today. The storms have had a history of producing damaging winds,
bringing down power lines and trees. Torrential rainfall has led to
flash flooding in some areas.

In the near term, the heart of the forecast concerns is over the
next several hours. Environment certainly remains supportive of
strong to severe storms in the next 2-3 hours as the long-lived line
of storms continues east of I-65. While some areas have been
convectively overturned, enough instability recover may lead to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Much more uncertainty resides in how the evening forecast will play
out. The HRRR has been very consistent in showing additional
convective initiation across southern IL, western KY in the 3-4
hours and then this propagate toward south-central and central
Kentucky late this afternoon through the evening. This seems
reasonable given that those areas have seen little thunderstorm
activity and have plenty of instability to work with. Additional,
shear is expected to be on the increase in the evening, so despite
some waning instability, better shear will maintain the severe
threat there.

Flash Flooding will also be a concern across most of the area. The
environment is certainly supportive of excessive rainfall given
PWATs are running 1.7 to near 2.0 inches and dewpoints remain in the
low 70s. The earlier storms produced flooding across the Bluegrass.
Flash Flood guidance is about 2.0 inches in 1 hour, but in areas
that picked up high amounts already, those values aren't necessarily
representative and are lower.

Hi-res models are consistent showing a swath of 2-4 inches locally
across central KY and perhaps up into southern IN. This is due to
the several rounds of storms. With this in mind, went with a Flash
Flood Watch through this evening.

Tonight - Friday

Storms will be on the decrease late tonight giving way to scattered
showers and isolated storms overnight but severe storms are not
expected. The current storms should push an effective boundary into
Tennessee. Most of Friday is expected to be less active but another
front drops through from the north in the afternoon/evening hours.
It could fire up a few thunderstorms but aren't expected to be
severe. Highs will be in the 80s.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Drier and less humid conditions are expected on Saturday. Highs are
expected to top out in the 80s.  For Saturday night and into Sunday,
another quick moving upper level disturbance is forecast to cross
the region. This feature will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The best chances for rainfall would be
late Saturday night and through Sunday morning with a drier
conditions arriving Sunday evening. Lows Saturday night look to cool
into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday staying in the lower 80s.

Next week looks to be less active. The model consensus was used to
show mostly dry conditions Monday through Friday in the northwest
flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Temperatures will
gradually warm from near normal to well above normal through the
week.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms will work across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky through this evening.
Currently, strongest line moving into HNB now will affect SDF and
LEX by mid afternoon. Damaging wind gusts primary threat but also
hail and flash flooding.

Additional storm development is possible toward 7-8 pm EDT but is
less certain depending on how afternoon storms evolve.

Overnight, storms are expected to end giving way to just showers.
Some potential for fog where heaviest rain falls as winds are likely
to be light, though convective debris clouds may preclude fog
development.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for INZ076-
     077-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-071-074-076>078-
     081-082.

&&

Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...ZT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-010800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
346 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 /246 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail will be possible in the
strongest storms. An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Friday
afternoon and evening. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible late Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

DM/MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW SMITHFIELD         38.41N 85.29W
05/31/2018  M60 MPH          HENRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT    38.18N 84.90W
05/31/2018  M60 MPH          FRANKLIN           KY   ASOS

            ASOS STATION FFT, CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT.

&&

KAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE LOUISVILLE        38.27N 85.71W
05/31/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ALONG RIVER ROAD JUST NE OF
            DOWNTOWN.

&&

KAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE EMINENCE          38.34N 85.16W
05/31/2018  M53 MPH          SHELBY             KY   MESONET

            MEASURED GUST FROM KY MESONET SITE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE SAINT MATTHEWS    38.23N 85.63W
05/31/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED AT HIKES POINT, LOUISVILE TREE DOWN
            ON GARAGE.

&&

KAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
353 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW MILLVILLE         38.12N 84.88W
05/31/2018  M52 MPH          FRANKLIN           KY   MESONET

            MEASURED AT KY MESONET SITE.

&&

MRC