Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1056 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1056 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

After conferring with SPC, dropped counties from the northern part
of the watch behind the main line. Ahead of the line an isolated
tornado is still a possibility from any individual cells, but the
main threat is transitioning to a straight-line wind scenario with
the line along the Ohio River that will drop south through central
Kentucky. General flooding will be less of a threat with the
progressive line moving nearly perpendicular to its orientation, but
local water issues in the torrential rains within the line itself
will still be possible.

Issued at 950 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

500 mb jet streak continues to provide a focus for storm development
this evening. Starting to see some training in areas where southwest
flow is meeting up with outflow from earlier cells.  Still plenty of
instability in the warm sector ahead of that boundary, so the severe
threat will continue generally south of the I-64 corridor for a few
more hours. Decided to cancel a row of counties on the northern part
of the watch, but no other changes this package.

Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Storms have redeveloped over southern Indiana and will proceed
southeast across central Kentucky this evening. Though there is some
convective inhibition behind the earlier storms east of Interstate
65, there is still strong flow aloft and strong low level shear
ahead of a surface boundary over southern Indiana. SPC has issued a
Tornado Watch for southern Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of the
storms, though the watch will likely be able to be gradually
canceled early from north to south as the storms move through.

Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Threat Will Continue...

Line/cluster of storms moving into the Bluegrass is starting to
trail cells in an east-west orientation. This will likely increase
the flood threat over the next few hrs, generally along/just south
of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Will have to closely watch southern Indiana heading into early
evening, as storms continue to re-develop over SE Indiana with good
evidence of a boundary trailing SW toward Louisville. Environment in
this area is especially favorable for tornadoes given LCL heights
around 750m and bullseyes of 0-1km shear and helicity. The only real
limiting factor is the debris cloudiness from earlier storms, but
with clear skies along and west of I-65, would expect the atmosphere
to recover quickly.

Bottom line is that this event is not over, and all need to remain
weather aware!

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered storms, some severe, will continue to develop this evening
ahead of a cold front stretching from Indiana to the Ozarks. Will
account for these storms in the first few hours of the TAFs.

The overnight hours after the storms will be quiet with VFR
conditions, though southwest breezes will stay up around 7 knots.

On Saturday a secondary front dropping down from a surface low over
northern Indiana will cause scattered afternoon storms to develop
once again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...13
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
732 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-212345-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
732 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /632 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 294 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area around or shortly after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1007 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             2 NE ANCHORAGE          38.29N 85.51W
07/20/2018  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO SAW TREE BRANCHES AND LEAVES DOWN.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1011 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW SAINT MATTHEWS     38.23N 85.66W
07/20/2018  M60 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   ASOS

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1021 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ035-036-040-210245-
Scott-Woodford-Franklin-
1021 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WOODFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 1020 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 17 miles south of Owenton to near
Frankfort. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds around 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms...along with very heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Midway, Stamping Ground, Slickway, Harvieland, Elmville,
Duckers, Millville, Watkinsville and Elsinore.

LAT...LON 3814 8458 3814 8459 3811 8491 3829 8497
      3837 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 278DEG 30KT 3829 8490 3814 8485

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             3 E ANCHORAGE           38.27N 85.49W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

&&

SSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ082-210315-
Clinton-
938 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY...

At 938 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Albany, moving
east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Cartwright, Snow, Savage, Highway, Ida, Marlow, Rolan, Decide
and Browns Crossroads.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3669 8526 3678 8523 3679 8502 3675 8500
      3673 8502 3671 8501 3670 8502 3669 8502
      3667 8500 3667 8501 3666 8500 3663 8500
      3662 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 283DEG 26KT 3673 8518

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1104 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MCQUADY            37.72N 86.49W
07/20/2018  E51 MPH          BRECKINRIDGE       KY   MESONET

            BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY KY MESONET SITE.

&&

MRC