Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Storms have redeveloped over southern Indiana and will proceed
southeast across central Kentucky this evening. Though there is some
convective inhibition behind the earlier storms east of Interstate
65, there is still strong flow aloft and strong low level shear
ahead of a surface boundary over southern Indiana. SPC has issued a
Tornado Watch for southern Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of the
storms, though the watch will likely be able to be gradually
canceled early from north to south as the storms move through.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered storms, some severe, will continue to develop this evening
ahead of a cold front stretching from Indiana to the Ozarks. Will
account for these storms in the first few hours of the TAFs.

The overnight hours after the storms will be quiet with VFR
conditions, though southwest breezes will stay up around 7 knots.

On Saturday a secondary front dropping down from a surface low over
northern Indiana will cause scattered afternoon storms to develop
once again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...13
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
732 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-212345-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
732 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /632 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 294 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area around or shortly after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
904 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ041-042-048-049-057-210130-
Bourbon-Fayette-Jessamine-Clark-Madison-
904 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLARK...JESSAMINE...
SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON...NORTHERN MADISON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 903 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Highlands to Veterans Park to 7
miles north of Harrodsburg. Movement was southeast at 40 to 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Richmond, Nicholasville, Winchester, Meadowthorpe,
Thoroughbred Acres, Cardinal Hill, Cadentown, Northland and
Highlands.

Heavy rain is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3781 8416 3772 8443 3791 8470 3792 8469
      3797 8460 3818 8447 3819 8444 3806 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 294DEG 44KT 3814 8448 3795 8452 3786 8480

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             TOMPKINSVILLE           36.70N 85.69W
07/20/2018  M4.00 INCH       MONROE             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VERIFIED PHOTO ON TWITTER. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ090>092-210130-
Floyd-Clark-Harrison-
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND FLOYD COUNTIES...

At 907 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from 13 miles
northeast of Carefree Town to 8 miles northeast of Corydon. Movement
was east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jeffersonville, New Albany, Clarksville, Sellersburg, Galena,
Palmyra, Greenville, Crandall, Saint Joseph, and Starlight.

Frequent lightning is occurring. Lightning can strike 10 miles away
from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or
vehicle.

LAT...LON 3845 8585 3832 8566 3829 8568 3827 8574
      3829 8578 3828 8582 3827 8584 3824 8584
      3827 8614 3839 8625 3839 8626 3841 8625
      3841 8626 3842 8626 3842 8600 3845 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 277DEG 43KT 3841 8623 3831 8602

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             LANESVILLE              38.24N 85.99W
07/20/2018  E0.50 INCH       HARRISON           IN   PUBLIC

&&

SSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             1 W CENTRAL BARREN      38.37N 86.11W
07/20/2018  E1.75 INCH       HARRISON           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALONG HANCOCK CHAPEL
            ROAD.

&&

CCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             2 SE MIDDLEBURG         37.32N 84.79W
07/20/2018  E2.50 INCH       CASEY              KY   PUBLIC

&&

SSC