Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1114 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure anchored
over the southern tip of Nevada with a secondary high noted over the
sern CONUS. Active flow continued across the northern tier of states
and southern Canada this morning. A closed low was noted over
western Ontario with a nice 50KT jet streak extending from northern
Minnesota into northern Quebec. Upstream of this feature and
associated trough of low pressure, a tandem of shortwaves were
noted. The first over swrn Idaho and a second off the southern
Oregon coast. At the surface, weak high pressure was present over
northeastern Nebraska this afternoon. A weak stationary front
extended across the panhandle with southerly winds west of this
feature and calm or light easterly winds east of this feature. Skies
were partly cloudy and temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from
82 at Ainsworth to 89 at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tonight and Tuesday...Precipitation chances and the
severe threat are the main forecast challenges over the next 24
hours. The shortwave disturbance, currently over southern Idaho will
track into Wyoming late this afternoon, emerging onto the Wyoming
plains early this evening. Convection is expected to initiate in
advance of this feature and track east, then southeast into the low
level jet overnight. The latest NAM12 and GFS, as well as the WARW
develop a robust MCS over the northern panhandle, tracking this
south into swrn Nebraska overnight. Model timing has been in decent
agreement between the GFS and NAM12 solutions which favor a "late
show". However, the WARW and HREF ensembles develop convection
across the Black Hills, forcing this into the nwrn CWA late this
afternoon into the early evening hours. If convection were to fire
early on, it would be more discrete in nature with large hail and
winds being the main threats. This is supported by very steep mid
level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 35 to 40 KTS. Later in the
evening as convection morphs into a MCS, winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats. The concern with heavy rain lies with fcst
PWATS which are north of 1.5 inches in advance of the expected
convection. On Tuesday, precipitation will linger in the southern
and eastern forecast area during the morning hours, with drying
conds developing in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tuesday night through Thursday...A second, stronger
disturbance, will track across southern Montana and northern Wyoming
Tuesday afternoon. This feature will approach eastern Wyoming and
the Nebraska panhandle early Tuesday evening. As the disturbance
approaches a surface trough of low pressure, located in eastern
Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday evening, showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Once again, storms will track east and
southeast into the nose of the low level jet. Rich low level
moisture, with PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches will be present across
western and north central Nebraska Tuesday night. This will
facilitate the threat for heavy rain. Since timing will be mainly
during the late evening and overnight hours, not real confident
about the threat for widespread severe storms Tuesday night.
Precipitation will linger in the eastern forecast area Wednesday
morning before pushing out by midday. The upper level shortwave
trough, will slowly track across the Dakotas on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in advance of this feature,
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Good subsidence will develop
behind the exiting H5 wave with dry conditions expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...The upper level disturbance will
drift east and deepen as it approaches the southern Great Lakes
late in the week. This will allow ridging across the western CONUS
to amplify Friday through Saturday night. Warmer temperatures and
dry conditions are expected with highs reaching the upper
80s/lower 90s for Friday and Saturday. An upper level trough will
ride across southwestern into south central Canada Saturday night
into Monday. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday. Will keep pops fairly
low ATTM as the main forcing will be focused over the Dakotas. The
upper level trough will force a cold front through the forecast
area Sunday night with highs falling off to the lower to middle
80s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Overnight, widespread thunderstorms are expected to move east-
southeast, generally affecting all of southwestern Nebraska, south
of highway 2. Storm activity should exit southwest Nebraska
around 12z-14z Tuesday morning. Additonal thunderstorm activity
is possible Tuesday evening west of highway 61.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 /213 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into northwest Nebraska
late this evening, generally after 9 PM MDT. Some storms will be
capable of producing large hail, strong winds, and very heavy
rain. The storms will spread southeast across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska overnight, where the primary threats are
damaging wind and heavy rain. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will accompany any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. A severe
storm capable of producing hail and strong winds cannot be ruled
out, however the primary threats are prolonged heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday nights.
Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding severe weather potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening and tonight,
primarily for areas west of Highway 83. Any severe weather or
rainfall report is appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1134 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEZ035-036-057-059-170515-
Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
1134 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR...KEITH...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
AM CDT/1115 PM MDT/...

At 1134 PM CDT/1034 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 18 miles east of Arthur to
11 miles northeast of Keystone to near Lemoyne. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Paxton, Sarben, Lemoyne, Keystone, Roscoe, Kingsley Dam,
Flatts, Nevens, Broganville, Lake View Campground, Big Bald Hill and
Diamond Bar Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 80 and 107.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 128 and 138, and between mile
markers 182 and 186.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 122 and 154.

LAT...LON 4137 10108 4102 10126 4102 10177 4131 10191
      4141 10147 4161 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 336DEG 23KT 4155 10134 4131 10141 4125 10178

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TSTM WND GST     THEDFORD                41.98N 100.57W
07/16/2018  M58 MPH          THOMAS             NE   AWOS

            WINDS GUSTING TO 58 MPH OR HIGHER SINCE 1124 PM

&&

CCOLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1218 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NEZ037-170600-
Logan NE-
1218 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL 100
AM CDT...

At 1218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northeast of Gandy to 6 miles
northeast of Ringgold. Movement was south at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Gandy, Logan, Tarboz Lake, Shanklin Bluff and Hoagland.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 221 and 236.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 107 and 116.

LAT...LON 4150 10028 4140 10048 4146 10071 4163 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 354DEG 30KT 4157 10030 4155 10066

CDC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NEZ036>038-059-170615-
Custer NE-McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHERN
LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL
115 AM CDT...

At 1234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Dunning to near Gandy to
near Tryon. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Arnold, Logan, Finchville, Pleasant Hill and Milldale.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 236 and 269.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 20 and 25.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 97 and 106.

LAT...LON 4151 9981 4126 10013 4131 10081 4152 10091
      4140 10049 4151 10027 4164 10027 4173 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 317DEG 25KT 4170 10018 4151 10043 4154 10090

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NEZ036-057-059-170630-
McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEITH...WESTERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT/1230 AM
MDT/...

At 1250 AM CDT/1150 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of
Ringgold to 8 miles south of Sutherland Reservoir State Recreation
Area. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
North Platte, Sutherland, Hershey, Dickens, Sutherland Reservoir
State Recreation Area, Lake Maloney State Recreation Area, North
Platte Airport, Coker, O'Fallons, Birdwood and Somerset.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 19.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 149 and 181.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 66 and 88.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4071 10099 4110 10132 4152 10091 4098 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 334DEG 29KT 4139 10085 4099 10115

CDC