Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS North Platte, NE

July 16, 2018Blaine County, Brown County, Cherry County, Nebraska

NWS North Platte, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2018, 8:46 PM CDT for Blaine County, Brown County, Cherry County, Nebraska. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2018, 8:46 PM CDT (01:46 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2018, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS North Platte, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Cherry County, NE

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2061 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1480 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

468 
WUUS53 KLBF 170146
SVRLBF
NEC009-017-031-170230-
/O.NEW.KLBF.SV.W.0193.180717T0146Z-180717T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service North Platte NE
846 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Cherry County in north central Nebraska...
  Southwestern Brown County in north central Nebraska...
  Northwestern Blaine County in north central Nebraska...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 845 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 16 miles northwest
  of Elsmere, or 25 miles southwest of Ainsworth, moving southeast at
  20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Elsmere, Purdum, Moon Lake, Willow Lake State Wildlife Management
  Area, Long Lake State Wildlife Management Area and Koshopah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4219 9987 4201 10025 4206 10028 4209 10027
      4209 10029 4239 10046 4249 10025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 326DEG 17KT 4238 10030 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Taylor

2 follow-up statements

582 
WWUS53 KLBF 170210
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
910 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEC009-017-031-170230-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-180717T0230Z/
Cherry NE-Brown NE-Blaine NE-
910 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...SOUTHWESTERN BROWN AND NORTHWESTERN BLAINE
COUNTIES...

At 909 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of
Elsmere, or 24 miles northeast of Thedford, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Elsmere, Purdum, Moon Lake, Willow Lake State Wildlife Management
Area, Long Lake State Wildlife Management Area and Koshopah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4219 9987 4201 10025 4206 10028 4209 10027
      4209 10029 4239 10046 4249 10025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 349DEG 18KT 4225 10027 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Taylor

146 
WWUS53 KLBF 170232
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
932 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEC009-017-031-170242-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-180717T0230Z/
Cherry NE-Brown NE-Blaine NE-
932 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...
SOUTHWESTERN BROWN AND NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
North Platte.

LAT...LON 4219 9987 4201 10025 4206 10028 4209 10027
      4209 10029 4239 10046 4249 10025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 326DEG 17KT 4216 10019 

$$

Taylor

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 6:13 PM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 6:13 PM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure anchored
over the southern tip of Nevada with a secondary high noted over the
sern CONUS. Active flow continued across the northern tier of states
and southern Canada this morning. A closed low was noted over
western Ontario with a nice 50KT jet streak extending from northern
Minnesota into northern Quebec. Upstream of this feature and
associated trough of low pressure, a tandem of shortwaves were
noted. The first over swrn Idaho and a second off the southern
Oregon coast. At the surface, weak high pressure was present over
northeastern Nebraska this afternoon. A weak stationary front
extended across the panhandle with southerly winds west of this
feature and calm or light easterly winds east of this feature. Skies
were partly cloudy and temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from
82 at Ainsworth to 89 at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tonight and Tuesday...Precipitation chances and the
severe threat are the main forecast challenges over the next 24
hours. The shortwave disturbance, currently over southern Idaho will
track into Wyoming late this afternoon, emerging onto the Wyoming
plains early this evening. Convection is expected to initiate in
advance of this feature and track east, then southeast into the low
level jet overnight. The latest NAM12 and GFS, as well as the WARW
develop a robust MCS over the northern panhandle, tracking this
south into swrn Nebraska overnight. Model timing has been in decent
agreement between the GFS and NAM12 solutions which favor a "late
show". However, the WARW and HREF ensembles develop convection
across the Black Hills, forcing this into the nwrn CWA late this
afternoon into the early evening hours. If convection were to fire
early on, it would be more discrete in nature with large hail and
winds being the main threats. This is supported by very steep mid
level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 35 to 40 KTS. Later in the
evening as convection morphs into a MCS, winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats. The concern with heavy rain lies with fcst
PWATS which are north of 1.5 inches in advance of the expected
convection. On Tuesday, precipitation will linger in the southern
and eastern forecast area during the morning hours, with drying
conds developing in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tuesday night through Thursday...A second, stronger
disturbance, will track across southern Montana and northern Wyoming
Tuesday afternoon. This feature will approach eastern Wyoming and
the Nebraska panhandle early Tuesday evening. As the disturbance
approaches a surface trough of low pressure, located in eastern
Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday evening, showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Once again, storms will track east and
southeast into the nose of the low level jet. Rich low level
moisture, with PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches will be present across
western and north central Nebraska Tuesday night. This will
facilitate the threat for heavy rain. Since timing will be mainly
during the late evening and overnight hours, not real confident
about the threat for widespread severe storms Tuesday night.
Precipitation will linger in the eastern forecast area Wednesday
morning before pushing out by midday. The upper level shortwave
trough, will slowly track across the Dakotas on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in advance of this feature,
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Good subsidence will develop
behind the exiting H5 wave with dry conditions expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...The upper level disturbance will
drift east and deepen as it approaches the southern Great Lakes
late in the week. This will allow ridging across the western CONUS
to amplify Friday through Saturday night. Warmer temperatures and
dry conditions are expected with highs reaching the upper
80s/lower 90s for Friday and Saturday. An upper level trough will
ride across southwestern into south central Canada Saturday night
into Monday. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday. Will keep pops fairly
low ATTM as the main forcing will be focused over the Dakotas. The
upper level trough will force a cold front through the forecast
area Sunday night with highs falling off to the lower to middle
80s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread this evening and
move south-southeast, generally affecting all of western and most
of north central Nebraska. Storm activity should exit southwest
Nebraska around 12z-14z Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 3:13 PM CDT, 5 hours 33 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 /213 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into northwest Nebraska
late this evening, generally after 9 PM MDT. Some storms will be
capable of producing large hail, strong winds, and very heavy
rain. The storms will spread southeast across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska overnight, where the primary threats are
damaging wind and heavy rain. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will accompany any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. A severe
storm capable of producing hail and strong winds cannot be ruled
out, however the primary threats are prolonged heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday nights.
Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding severe weather potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening and tonight,
primarily for areas west of Highway 83. Any severe weather or
rainfall report is appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:12 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
712 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018  M74 MPH          CHERRY             NE   ASOS

&&

CCOLE

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 7:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEZ004-170115-
Sheridan NE-
633 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 632 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hay Springs, moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hay Springs, Highway 250 crossing the Niobrara River, Intersection of
Highway 87 and Antelope Road and Walgren Lake State Recreation Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 79 and 81.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 28 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4268 10277 4270 10246 4243 10237 4244 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 355DEG 8KT 4262 10258

CDC

Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
736 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GORDON                  42.81N 102.20W
07/16/2018                   SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

            THREE LARGE TREES DOWN IN TOWN FROM STRONG WINDS

&&

THORNE

Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
742 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018                   CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF A 14 INCH TREE SPLIT IN HALF. REPORTS OF POWER
            OUTAGES WITH DOWNED POWER POLES.

&&

THORNE

Local storm report, Jul 16, 7:56 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
756 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     1W VALENTINE            42.88N 100.56W
07/16/2018  M59 MPH          CHERRY             NE   MESONET

            MESONET STATION E3958, VALENTINE 1W.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 16, 8:24 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             9 SW WOOD LAKE          42.55N 100.36W
07/16/2018  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE

The office that day

Everything else NWS North Platte, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Cherry	45 min
Jul 16, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Cherry, Sheridan	47 min
Jul 16, 7:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Sheridan	42 min
Jul 16, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Brown, Cherry	47 min
Jul 16, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Cherry, Sheridan	51 min
Jul 16, 9:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Grant	44 min
Jul 16, 9:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Grant	50 min
Jul 16, 10:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Arthur, Grant, Hooker	40 min
Jul 16, 10:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Thomas	41 min
Jul 16, 10:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Arthur, Hooker	47 min
Jul 16, 10:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Thomas	52 min
Jul 16, 11:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Thomas	44 min
Jul 16, 11:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Blaine, Cherry, Thomas	44 min
Jul 16, 11:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Keith	41 min
Jul 16, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Logan, McPherson, Thomas	49 min
Jul 16, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Keith, Lincoln	48 min
Jul 16, 11:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Deuel, Garden, Keith	46 min
Jul 17, 12:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Logan	42 min
Jul 17, 12:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Perkins	51 min
Jul 17, 12:35 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Logan	40 min
Jul 17, 12:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Lincoln	39 min
Jul 17, 1:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Lincoln	47 min
Jul 17, 1:26 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Lincoln	88 min
Jul 17, 1:46 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Boyd, Holt	3 hr
Jul 17, 1:52 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LBF	Boyd, Holt	3 hr
Jul 17, 2:01 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LBF	Boyd	3 hr
Jul 17, 2:15 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Chase, Hayes, Lincoln, Perkins	3 hr
Jul 17, 2:10 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LBF	Sheridan	14 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.