Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS North Platte, NE

253 
WWUS53 KLBF 170045
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

NEC031-161-170115-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-180717T0115Z/
Cherry NE-Sheridan NE-
645 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY AND EAST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTIES...

At 645 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 26 miles south of
Gordon, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Big Hill and Billys Lake. 

This includes Highway 61 near mile marker 183.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4245 10218 4251 10187 4233 10172 4229 10220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 342DEG 15KT 4245 10201 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure anchored
over the southern tip of Nevada with a secondary high noted over the
sern CONUS. Active flow continued across the northern tier of states
and southern Canada this morning. A closed low was noted over
western Ontario with a nice 50KT jet streak extending from northern
Minnesota into northern Quebec. Upstream of this feature and
associated trough of low pressure, a tandem of shortwaves were
noted. The first over swrn Idaho and a second off the southern
Oregon coast. At the surface, weak high pressure was present over
northeastern Nebraska this afternoon. A weak stationary front
extended across the panhandle with southerly winds west of this
feature and calm or light easterly winds east of this feature. Skies
were partly cloudy and temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from
82 at Ainsworth to 89 at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tonight and Tuesday...Precipitation chances and the
severe threat are the main forecast challenges over the next 24
hours. The shortwave disturbance, currently over southern Idaho will
track into Wyoming late this afternoon, emerging onto the Wyoming
plains early this evening. Convection is expected to initiate in
advance of this feature and track east, then southeast into the low
level jet overnight. The latest NAM12 and GFS, as well as the WARW
develop a robust MCS over the northern panhandle, tracking this
south into swrn Nebraska overnight. Model timing has been in decent
agreement between the GFS and NAM12 solutions which favor a "late
show". However, the WARW and HREF ensembles develop convection
across the Black Hills, forcing this into the nwrn CWA late this
afternoon into the early evening hours. If convection were to fire
early on, it would be more discrete in nature with large hail and
winds being the main threats. This is supported by very steep mid
level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 35 to 40 KTS. Later in the
evening as convection morphs into a MCS, winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats. The concern with heavy rain lies with fcst
PWATS which are north of 1.5 inches in advance of the expected
convection. On Tuesday, precipitation will linger in the southern
and eastern forecast area during the morning hours, with drying
conds developing in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Tuesday night through Thursday...A second, stronger
disturbance, will track across southern Montana and northern Wyoming
Tuesday afternoon. This feature will approach eastern Wyoming and
the Nebraska panhandle early Tuesday evening. As the disturbance
approaches a surface trough of low pressure, located in eastern
Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday evening, showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Once again, storms will track east and
southeast into the nose of the low level jet. Rich low level
moisture, with PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches will be present across
western and north central Nebraska Tuesday night. This will
facilitate the threat for heavy rain. Since timing will be mainly
during the late evening and overnight hours, not real confident
about the threat for widespread severe storms Tuesday night.
Precipitation will linger in the eastern forecast area Wednesday
morning before pushing out by midday. The upper level shortwave
trough, will slowly track across the Dakotas on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in advance of this feature,
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Good subsidence will develop
behind the exiting H5 wave with dry conditions expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...The upper level disturbance will
drift east and deepen as it approaches the southern Great Lakes
late in the week. This will allow ridging across the western CONUS
to amplify Friday through Saturday night. Warmer temperatures and
dry conditions are expected with highs reaching the upper
80s/lower 90s for Friday and Saturday. An upper level trough will
ride across southwestern into south central Canada Saturday night
into Monday. This will lead to an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday. Will keep pops fairly
low ATTM as the main forcing will be focused over the Dakotas. The
upper level trough will force a cold front through the forecast
area Sunday night with highs falling off to the lower to middle
80s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread this evening and
move south-southeast, generally affecting all of western and most
of north central Nebraska. Storm activity should exit southwest
Nebraska around 12z-14z Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 /213 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into northwest Nebraska
late this evening, generally after 9 PM MDT. Some storms will be
capable of producing large hail, strong winds, and very heavy
rain. The storms will spread southeast across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska overnight, where the primary threats are
damaging wind and heavy rain. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will accompany any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. A severe
storm capable of producing hail and strong winds cannot be ruled
out, however the primary threats are prolonged heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday nights.
Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding severe weather potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening and tonight,
primarily for areas west of Highway 83. Any severe weather or
rainfall report is appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             5 WSW RUSHVILLE         42.69N 102.56W
07/16/2018  M1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL, LOTS OF RAIN.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018  M60 MPH          CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
707 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018                   CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 1 TO 2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN OVER IN TOWN.

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
708 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             4 N GORDON              42.86N 102.20W
07/16/2018  E0.88 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH
            VISIBILITY AROUND 100 FEET.

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     GORDON                  42.81N 102.20W
07/16/2018  M76.00 MPH       SHERIDAN           NE   AWOS

            SUSTAIN AT 54MPH

0642 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SE GORDON             42.74N 102.12W
07/16/2018  E70.00 MPH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH STORM. POWER IS OUT.

0656 PM     HAIL             5 WSW RUSHVILLE         42.69N 102.56W
07/16/2018  M1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL, LOTS OF RAIN.

0704 PM     HAIL             VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018                   CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 1 TO 2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN OVER IN TOWN.

0704 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018  M60.00 MPH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCOLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
712 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
07/16/2018  M74 MPH          CHERRY             NE   ASOS

&&

CCOLE