Severe Thunderstorm Warning 415, NWS Jackson, MS

773 
WWUS54 KJAN 011050
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
550 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSC069-075-099-101-011100-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0415.000000T0000Z-181101T1100Z/
Newton MS-Kemper MS-Neshoba MS-Lauderdale MS-
550 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...WESTERN KEMPER...EASTERN NESHOBA AND
WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

At 549 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles north of Electric Mills to Lauderdale, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Newton...western Kemper...eastern Neshoba and western
Lauderdale Counties, including the following locations... Chunky.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for east central
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3223 8893 3292 8899 3292 8896 3293 8868
      3223 8868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 274DEG 45KT 3286 8846 3254 8849 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
115 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion. Also made slight adjustments
to the short-term forecast through Thursday night to account for
trends in cold front timing.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF discussion:
The main concern for this TAF period is a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms aligned north to south across the region. This line
of thunderstorms will quickly push east through the TAF sites,
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions and wind gusts of up to 25 to 30
kts. There is a chance for stronger gusts if a severe thunderstorm
impacts any of the TAF sites. Storms will clear from west to east,
departing the KGLH area by around 10Z Thursday and the TAF sites
in eastern Mississippi by 14Z. A few showers may linger for a few
hours. Otherwise expect a lingering MVFR stratus deck and westerly
winds through the remainder of the period. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening update discussion:

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms have been blossoming in the
vicinity of the Arklatex and the Sabine River Valley so far this
evening, generally as expected. One, potentially important, trend
is very robust convection anchoring across southwestern LA, and
this convection may be impeding optimal moisture advection
farther north. This could result in severe weather potential
being more limited across portions of the Arklamiss Delta, but it
will likely not affect the previously-delineated ENHANCED severe
thunderstorm potential late tonight along and south of I-20 (at
least across most the relevant MS counties in our warning area).
We will examine trends a bit longer and may adjust our severe
outlook graphic to represent implications of mentioned trend. Our
00Z JAN sounding was not yet very impressive from an instability
perspective (MLCAPE values less than 500 j/kg), but confidence is
high that instability will increase over the heart of the region
when the meat of the trough axis (and associated numerous showers
and thunderstorms) arrive. Shear will improve, as well, by that
time and deliver enough cape/shear juxtaposition to keep damaging
winds (including some tornadoes) a valid concern. Still looks like
the predominate convective model will be more-or-less linear,
although the latest hires model guidance suggests we cannot
completely let our guard down against pre-line isolated
supercells. Of course, any supercells would have more potential
for strong tornadoes (especially along and west of I-55).

Otherwise, the most worrisome convection is advancing toward the
region steadily and looks to advance eastward through the
forecast area by 7 to 8 am. Our timing graphics have recently been
adjusted to best represent our current thinking in this regard. We
will be doing a special sounding at JAN at 6 UTC (i.e., shortly
after midnight) to best assess atmospheric instability and shear
in advance of convection. Finally, tornado watch #418 is in effect
for mainly our LA parishes through 4 am. Current expectations are
that the worst of the storms will be east of this watch before 4
am and it is very likely the Storm Prediction Center will be
issuing another tornado watch to cover a large portion of MS
counties by (or before) midnight. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Through tomorrow...

The main focus through the near term forecast period will continue
to be the severe weather and flash flooding threat tonight into
tomorrow morning. The synoptic pattern features ridging along the
Atlantic Coast with a potent shortwave trough ejecting out of the
Desert Southwest and into the southern Great Plains. This has
resulted in southwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley with an elongated quasi-stationary frontal boundary at the
surface draped from northeast Texas into northern Arkansas. The
advancing shortwave trough will help induce surface cyclogenesis
along the frontal boundary by early this evening with a deepening
low tracking across central Arkansas into far west Tennessee
overnight. The resulting mass response will strengthen low-level flow
and shear helping to organize a robust QLCS that will move through
the ArkLaMiss overnight.

Severe weather threat: warm air advection showers and thunderstorms
are already ongoing across the Delta with additional convective
development ongoing along the Gulf Coast. There is a low end threat
that a few of these storms could become marginally severe late this
afternoon through the early evening hours as they quickly move north
through the Delta. However, the primary severe weather threat will
be associated with the aforementioned QLCS which is progged to move
into northeast Louisiana/southeast Arkansas around 9-10pm tonight. A
stout 40-50kt low-level jet will help strengthen 0-1km shear and
helicity with 30-40kts and 300-400 m2/s2 respectively. In fact, the
majority of the effective shear will reside in the lowest 1km with 0-
6km deep layer shear of 50kts. Marine layer air with 65 to near 70
degree dewpoints will reside along and south of the I-20 corridor
and will help foster 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE despite the typical
nocturnal instability minimum. These CAPE values will be more than
sufficient for severe weather owing to the substantial shear in
place. Some degree of uncertainty remains with respect to convective
evolution, however the overall thinking is that convection will
organize into a QLCS upstream over portions of Texas and Louisiana
before moving through the area. There has been consistent support
from hi-res CAM guidance that a cluster of supercells ahead of the
QLCS could develop over central Louisiana and move northeast along
and south of the I-20 corridor. The greatest potential for
tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, will exist with this
activity. The main threat with the QLCS itself will be for damaging
winds up to 70mph and embedded tornadoes, especially where bowing
segments become aligned with the 0-3km shear vectors and with any
strong MCVs that are able to form. Went ahead and expanded the
enhanced area further east to the I-59 corridor given latest model
trends and collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center. The
severe storms should be exiting eastern Mississippi into Alabama by
7-8am tomorrow morning.

Flash flooding threat: an anomalously moist airmass with PWATs near
2" (90th percentile) and impressive integrated water vapor transport
(IVT values in the 99th percentile) will aid in efficient rainfall
rates. Widespread 1-2" of rain will be likely with localized amounts
of 3-4" possible. This rain will fall in a short amount of time,
however dry antecedent conditions will preclude a greater flash
flood threat. Will continue to advertise a limited risk area wide in
the HWO/graphics, but the higher totals are anticipated to occur
south of the I-20 corridor.

The cold front will lag behind the line of storms and will move
through the area during the day Thursday into the evening hours. A
few isolated/scattered showers could continue behind the front as
the trough axis and vorticity maximum move through. These showers
will be most likely over the Hwy 82 corridor. Cold air advection
behind the front will also help keep temperatures cooler tomorrow as
well. /TW/

Thursday night through next Tuesday...

The mid/upper trough axis will swing east through the Lower
Mississippi River Valley Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile,
high pressure at the surface will build into the forecast area as
well. Noticeably cooler drier air will advect into the CWA in the
process under northwest flow, with clouds gradually exiting the
region as the aforementioned trough axis does likewise through the
course of the day Friday. After cooler drier conditions Thursday
night through Friday, surface winds will begin to swing around
from the south Saturday into Sunday, as another front approaches
from the west late Sunday night. Still, quiet and fairly pleasant
weather is expected from Thursday night through at least Sunday,
with conditions steadily warming through the upcoming weekend.

In the Sunday night through Tuesday timeframe, rain chances
currently look to increase across the region.  This will be as a
result of the before mentioned cold front pushing into the region.
There could be a window during this period where the potential
exists for severe storms over at least a portion of the CWA.
However, given continuing inconsistencies in model run-to-run
solutions, and periodic disagreements in models, no mention of this
potential will be made into the HWO or associated graphics. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  48  61  43 /  60  24  11   5
Meridian      72  50  61  43 /  95  32  14   5
Vicksburg     67  47  63  44 /  56  21   9   6
Hattiesburg   75  52  63  44 /  97  28  11   3
Natchez       68  48  64  46 /  57  18   8   4
Greenville    65  46  63  43 /  56  20  11   9
Greenwood     68  45  61  43 /  61  22  12   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/19/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061-020945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-
Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ030-032-033-038-044-045-050-055-056-063-064-020945-
Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Leake-Neshoba-Scott-Simpson-Smith-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through daybreak

Severe thunderstorms will remain possible through around daybreak
with the threat shifting to the east thereafter. Damaging wind
gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding will also possible through around
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning.

MSZ029-062-020945-
Webster-Lincoln-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through daybreak

Localized flash flooding will also possible through around
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ031-039-046-020945-
Lowndes-Noxubee-Kemper-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through daybreak

Severe thunderstorms will remain possible through around, or
shortly after, daybreak with the threat shifting to the east
thereafter. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes
will also cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding will also possible through around
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region through mid
morning today.

MSZ051-065-072-073-020945-
Newton-Covington-Marion-Lamar-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through daybreak

Severe thunderstorms are expected through around, or shortly
after, daybreak with the threat shifting to the east thereafter.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes are also a
possibility.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding will also possible through around
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region through mid
morning.

MSZ052-057-066-020945-
Lauderdale-Jasper-Jones-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through daybreak

Severe thunderstorms are expected through around, or shortly
after, daybreak with the threat shifting to the east thereafter.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes are also a
possibility.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding will also possible through around
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region through mid
morning today.

MSZ058-020945-
Clarke-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through mid morning

Severe thunderstorms will remain possible through around, or
shortly after, daybreak with the threat shifting to the east
thereafter. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes
will also cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding will also possible through shortly after
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region through mid
morning today.

MSZ074-020945-
Forrest-
438 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms are expected through around, or shortly
after, daybreak with the threat shifting to the east thereafter.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes are also a
possibility.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding will also possible through shortly after
daybreak as rainfall totals range from one to four inches before
heavy rain moves to the east later this morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region through mid
morning today.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BELZONI                 33.18N 90.49W
11/01/2018                   HUMPHREYS          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN AT THE JAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE JACKSON            32.36N 90.17W
11/01/2018                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWNED AT BROADMOOR DRIVE.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW FLORENCE           32.14N 90.16W
11/01/2018                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWERLINES DOWNED AT 600 BLOCK OF
            WHITE ROAD SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW WATERPROOF         31.89N 91.47W
11/01/2018                   TENSAS             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES ON HIGHWAY
            573.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW GEORGETOWN        31.94N 90.22W
11/01/2018                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED ALONG HIGHWAY 27 IN
            BETWEEN HOPEWELL AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BRANDON           32.23N 90.04W
11/01/2018                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWNED ON HIGHWAY 468 NEAR THE LIVE
            OAKS SUBDIVISION. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

DC