Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 403, NWS Jackson, MS
NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 1, 2018, 2:37 AM CDT for 5 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 53 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 1, 2018, 2:37 AM CDT (07:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2018, 3:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, MS
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Carroll County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Leflore County, MS
The radar
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 3:13 AM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Ssw Valley Hill, MS | CORRECTS TIME OF PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 1 SSW VALLEY HILL. TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE JUST BEHIND THE GREENWOOD-LEFLORE AIRPORT. |
| Nov 1, 3:22 AM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | North Carrollton, MS | MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON MONTGOMERY RD AND WILLIAMSON ST, ALONG WITH A TREE DOWN ON A VEHICLE ON MONTGOMERY AND A TREE ON A HOUSE ON WILLIAMSON. |
| Nov 1, 3:23 AM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | North Carrollton, MS | POWERLINES DOWN AND OUTAGES ON WILLIAMSON ST. |
| Nov 1, 3:25 AM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Nne North Carrollton, MS | MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. |
| Nov 1, 3:25 AM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | 2 Ese Carrollton, MS | TREE DOWN AT A HOME BLOCKING A DRIVEWAY. |
| Nov 1, 3:40 AM CDT | TSTM WND DMG | 5 Sse Grenada, MS | NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AREA SOUTH OF GRENADA...REPORTED BY GRENADA EOC. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 36 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:07 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 381 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -22 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 535 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 220 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 262 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.8
The text
As transmitted.
657
WUUS54 KJAN 010737
SVRJAN
MSC015-043-051-053-083-010830-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0403.181101T0737Z-181101T0830Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
237 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Holmes County in central Mississippi...
Carroll County in north central Mississippi...
Western Grenada County in north central Mississippi...
Leflore County in north central Mississippi...
Eastern Humphreys County in central Mississippi...
* Until 330 AM CDT.
* At 237 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Itta Bena to near Thornton, moving northeast at
45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
Itta Bena around 240 AM CDT.
Howard around 250 AM CDT.
Tchula and Money around 255 AM CDT.
Avalon around 300 AM CDT.
Leflore around 305 AM CDT.
Seven Pines around 310 AM CDT.
Black Hawk, Holcomb and Emory around 315 AM CDT.
Coila and Bew Springs around 320 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Carrollton, Schlater, Morgan City and Cruger.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central and
north central Mississippi.
LAT...LON 3323 8980 3301 9045 3362 9045 3372 9020
3372 9014 3375 9014 3383 8995 3382 8993
3384 8993 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 232DEG 41KT 3354 9040 3307 9040
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
TW2 follow-up statements
962
WWUS54 KJAN 010801
SVSJAN
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
301 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
MSC053-010811-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0403.000000T0000Z-181101T0830Z/
Humphreys MS-
301 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central and
north central Mississippi.
LAT...LON 3323 8980 3303 9038 3324 9030 3367 9033
3372 9020 3372 9014 3375 9014 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 232DEG 41KT 3368 9018 3321 9018
$$
MSC015-043-051-083-010830-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0403.000000T0000Z-181101T0830Z/
Holmes MS-Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Leflore MS-
301 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN HOLMES...CARROLL...WESTERN GRENADA AND EASTERN LEFLORE
COUNTIES...
At 301 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Money to near Tchula, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
These severe storms will be near...
Avalon and Money around 305 AM CDT.
Leflore around 310 AM CDT.
Black Hawk, Holcomb and Seven Pines around 315 AM CDT.
Emory around 320 AM CDT.
Grenada, Coila and Bew Springs around 325 AM CDT.
North Carrollton around 330 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Cruger
and Carrollton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central and
north central Mississippi.
LAT...LON 3323 8980 3303 9038 3324 9030 3367 9033
3372 9020 3372 9014 3375 9014 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 232DEG 41KT 3368 9018 3321 9018
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
TW334
WWUS54 KJAN 010816 RRA
SVSJAN
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
316 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
MSC083-010826-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0403.000000T0000Z-181101T0830Z/
Leflore MS-
316 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LEFLORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central and
north central Mississippi.
LAT...LON 3323 8980 3310 9019 3331 9011 3346 9012
3346 9010 3360 9010 3361 9012 3365 9010
3368 9013 3375 9014 3382 8996 3382 8993
3384 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 232DEG 41KT 3378 9003 3331 9003
$$
MSC015-043-051-010830-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0403.000000T0000Z-181101T0830Z/
Holmes MS-Carroll MS-Grenada MS-
316 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HOLMES...CARROLL AND WESTERN GRENADA COUNTIES...
At 316 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Holcomb to Black Hawk, moving northeast at 45
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
These severe storms will be near...
Holcomb around 320 AM CDT.
Bew Springs around 325 AM CDT.
Grenada and North Carrollton around 330 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Carrollton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central and
north central Mississippi.
LAT...LON 3323 8980 3310 9019 3331 9011 3346 9012
3346 9010 3360 9010 3361 9012 3365 9010
3368 9013 3375 9014 3382 8996 3382 8993
3384 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 232DEG 41KT 3378 9003 3331 9003
TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
TWWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 1, 1:15 AM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 1:15 AM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 115 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... .UPDATE... Updated for 06Z aviation discussion. Also made slight adjustments to the short-term forecast through Thursday night to account for trends in cold front timing. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: The main concern for this TAF period is a line of strong to severe thunderstorms aligned north to south across the region. This line of thunderstorms will quickly push east through the TAF sites, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions and wind gusts of up to 25 to 30 kts. There is a chance for stronger gusts if a severe thunderstorm impacts any of the TAF sites. Storms will clear from west to east, departing the KGLH area by around 10Z Thursday and the TAF sites in eastern Mississippi by 14Z. A few showers may linger for a few hours. Otherwise expect a lingering MVFR stratus deck and westerly winds through the remainder of the period. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Evening update discussion: Strong to locally severe thunderstorms have been blossoming in the vicinity of the Arklatex and the Sabine River Valley so far this evening, generally as expected. One, potentially important, trend is very robust convection anchoring across southwestern LA, and this convection may be impeding optimal moisture advection farther north. This could result in severe weather potential being more limited across portions of the Arklamiss Delta, but it will likely not affect the previously-delineated ENHANCED severe thunderstorm potential late tonight along and south of I-20 (at least across most the relevant MS counties in our warning area). We will examine trends a bit longer and may adjust our severe outlook graphic to represent implications of mentioned trend. Our 00Z JAN sounding was not yet very impressive from an instability perspective (MLCAPE values less than 500 j/kg), but confidence is high that instability will increase over the heart of the region when the meat of the trough axis (and associated numerous showers and thunderstorms) arrive. Shear will improve, as well, by that time and deliver enough cape/shear juxtaposition to keep damaging winds (including some tornadoes) a valid concern. Still looks like the predominate convective model will be more-or-less linear, although the latest hires model guidance suggests we cannot completely let our guard down against pre-line isolated supercells. Of course, any supercells would have more potential for strong tornadoes (especially along and west of I-55). Otherwise, the most worrisome convection is advancing toward the region steadily and looks to advance eastward through the forecast area by 7 to 8 am. Our timing graphics have recently been adjusted to best represent our current thinking in this regard. We will be doing a special sounding at JAN at 6 UTC (i.e., shortly after midnight) to best assess atmospheric instability and shear in advance of convection. Finally, tornado watch #418 is in effect for mainly our LA parishes through 4 am. Current expectations are that the worst of the storms will be east of this watch before 4 am and it is very likely the Storm Prediction Center will be issuing another tornado watch to cover a large portion of MS counties by (or before) midnight. /BB/ Prior discussion below: Through tomorrow... The main focus through the near term forecast period will continue to be the severe weather and flash flooding threat tonight into tomorrow morning. The synoptic pattern features ridging along the Atlantic Coast with a potent shortwave trough ejecting out of the Desert Southwest and into the southern Great Plains. This has resulted in southwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi River Valley with an elongated quasi-stationary frontal boundary at the surface draped from northeast Texas into northern Arkansas. The advancing shortwave trough will help induce surface cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary by early this evening with a deepening low tracking across central Arkansas into far west Tennessee overnight. The resulting mass response will strengthen low-level flow and shear helping to organize a robust QLCS that will move through the ArkLaMiss overnight. Severe weather threat: warm air advection showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Delta with additional convective development ongoing along the Gulf Coast. There is a low end threat that a few of these storms could become marginally severe late this afternoon through the early evening hours as they quickly move north through the Delta. However, the primary severe weather threat will be associated with the aforementioned QLCS which is progged to move into northeast Louisiana/southeast Arkansas around 9-10pm tonight. A stout 40-50kt low-level jet will help strengthen 0-1km shear and helicity with 30-40kts and 300-400 m2/s2 respectively. In fact, the majority of the effective shear will reside in the lowest 1km with 0- 6km deep layer shear of 50kts. Marine layer air with 65 to near 70 degree dewpoints will reside along and south of the I-20 corridor and will help foster 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE despite the typical nocturnal instability minimum. These CAPE values will be more than sufficient for severe weather owing to the substantial shear in place. Some degree of uncertainty remains with respect to convective evolution, however the overall thinking is that convection will organize into a QLCS upstream over portions of Texas and Louisiana before moving through the area. There has been consistent support from hi-res CAM guidance that a cluster of supercells ahead of the QLCS could develop over central Louisiana and move northeast along and south of the I-20 corridor. The greatest potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, will exist with this activity. The main threat with the QLCS itself will be for damaging winds up to 70mph and embedded tornadoes, especially where bowing segments become aligned with the 0-3km shear vectors and with any strong MCVs that are able to form. Went ahead and expanded the enhanced area further east to the I-59 corridor given latest model trends and collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center. The severe storms should be exiting eastern Mississippi into Alabama by 7-8am tomorrow morning. Flash flooding threat: an anomalously moist airmass with PWATs near 2" (90th percentile) and impressive integrated water vapor transport (IVT values in the 99th percentile) will aid in efficient rainfall rates. Widespread 1-2" of rain will be likely with localized amounts of 3-4" possible. This rain will fall in a short amount of time, however dry antecedent conditions will preclude a greater flash flood threat. Will continue to advertise a limited risk area wide in the HWO/graphics, but the higher totals are anticipated to occur south of the I-20 corridor. The cold front will lag behind the line of storms and will move through the area during the day Thursday into the evening hours. A few isolated/scattered showers could continue behind the front as the trough axis and vorticity maximum move through. These showers will be most likely over the Hwy 82 corridor. Cold air advection behind the front will also help keep temperatures cooler tomorrow as well. /TW/ Thursday night through next Tuesday... The mid/upper trough axis will swing east through the Lower Mississippi River Valley Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will build into the forecast area as well. Noticeably cooler drier air will advect into the CWA in the process under northwest flow, with clouds gradually exiting the region as the aforementioned trough axis does likewise through the course of the day Friday. After cooler drier conditions Thursday night through Friday, surface winds will begin to swing around from the south Saturday into Sunday, as another front approaches from the west late Sunday night. Still, quiet and fairly pleasant weather is expected from Thursday night through at least Sunday, with conditions steadily warming through the upcoming weekend. In the Sunday night through Tuesday timeframe, rain chances currently look to increase across the region. This will be as a result of the before mentioned cold front pushing into the region. There could be a window during this period where the potential exists for severe storms over at least a portion of the CWA. However, given continuing inconsistencies in model run-to-run solutions, and periodic disagreements in models, no mention of this potential will be made into the HWO or associated graphics. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 48 61 43 / 60 24 11 5 Meridian 72 50 61 43 / 95 32 14 5 Vicksburg 67 47 63 44 / 56 21 9 6 Hattiesburg 75 52 63 44 / 97 28 11 3 Natchez 68 48 64 46 / 57 18 8 4 Greenville 65 46 63 43 / 56 20 11 9 Greenwood 68 45 61 43 / 61 22 12 9 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && TW/NF/19/BB
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 4:47 PM CDT, 9 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-041-042-012200- Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Sharkey-Yazoo- 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tonight Severe thunderstorms expected across the area starting this evening in the ArkLaMiss Delta. These will track east through the region overnight, exiting the eastern part of the outlook area during tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in a short amount of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight. MSZ030>033-038-039-044>046-058-012200- Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba- Kemper-Clarke- 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Late Tonight through early Thursday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Late Tonight through early Thursday Severe thunderstorms expected across the area starting this evening in the ArkLaMiss Delta. These will track east through the region overnight, exiting the eastern part of the outlook area during tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in a short amount of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through Thursday. LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-047-053-059-060-012200- Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA- Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Warren-Claiborne- Jefferson-Adams- 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Enhanced TIMING...Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tonight The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight and persist into tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest threat for tornadoes will be across Northeast Louisiana, and portions of central, west central, and southwest Mississippi, where some strong tornadoes are possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in a short amount of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight. MSZ037-012200- Attala- 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Late Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tonight Severe thunderstorms expected across the area starting this evening in the ArkLaMiss Delta. These will track east through the region overnight, exiting the eastern part of the outlook area during tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in a short amount of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region late tonight. MSZ043-048-054-061-012200- Madison MS-Hinds-Copiah-Franklin MS- 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Enhanced TIMING...Late Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Late Tonight The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight and persist into early tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest threat for tornadoes will be across Northeast Louisiana, and portions of central, west central, and southwest Mississippi, where some strong tornadoes are possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in a short amount of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through early Thursday. MSZ049>052-055>057-062>066-072>074-012200- Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Late Tonight through Thursday morning SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Enhanced TIMING...Late Tonight through early Thursday morning The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight and persist into tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest threat for tornadoes will be across Northeast Louisiana, and portions of central, west central, and southwest Mississippi, where some strong tornadoes are possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in a short amount of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through Thursday morning. 50 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. *FLOODING* Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely. Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible. Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely. Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 31, 10:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 1048 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018 LAZ016-023>025-010415- Tensas LA-Madison LA-Catahoula LA-Franklin LA- 1048 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN TENSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN CATAHOULA AND CENTRAL FRANKLIN PARISHES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT... At 1048 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm near Wisner, or 17 miles southeast of Winnsboro, moving north at 50 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Winnsboro, Wisner, Newlight, Crowville, Cooter Point, Sicily Island and Gilbert. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees. && A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for northeastern Louisiana. LAT...LON 3179 9143 3180 9176 3226 9173 3225 9127 TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 195DEG 44KT 3193 9159 DL
Local storm report, Nov 1, 1:59 AM CDT, 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
159 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE JONESVILLE 31.62N 91.79W
11/01/2018 CONCORDIA LA PUBLIC
POWERLINES DOWNED ON WILDSVILLE ROAD AND
TREES DOWNED ON HIGHWAY 84. POSSIBLE
TORNADO.
&&
DCLocal storm report, Nov 1, 2:28 AM CDT, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 ENE LARTO 31.44N 91.72W
11/01/2018 CONCORDIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
POWERLINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 129 IN MONTEREY.
POSSIBLE TORNADO.
&&
DCLocal storm report, Nov 1, 2:29 AM CDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE JONESVILLE 31.62N 91.79W
11/01/2018 CONCORDIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 3
ESE JONESVILLE. POWERLINES DOWNED ON
WILDSVILLE ROAD AND TREES DOWNED ON HIGHWAY
84. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
&&
DCLocal storm report, Nov 1, 2:33 AM CDT, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0205 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW NATCHEZ 31.56N 91.40W
11/01/2018 ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR
POWERLINES AND TELEPHONE LINES AND TREES
DOWNED IN THE CITY. RESCUES ONGOING.
POSSIBLE TORNADO.
&&
DCThe office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 1:30 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Adams, Claiborne, Jefferson | 90 min |
| Nov 1, 1:42 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Issaquena, Sharkey, Warren | 63 min |
| Nov 1, 1:46 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Bolivar, Humphreys, Issaquena, Sharkey, Sunflower, Washington | 59 min |
| Nov 1, 1:53 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Adams, Jefferson | 42 min |
| Nov 1, 2:00 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Issaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo | 45 min |
| Nov 1, 2:06 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Claiborne, Franklin, Jefferson, Warren | 54 min |
| Nov 1, 2:22 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Franklin, Jefferson | 53 min |
| Nov 1, 2:26 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Adams, Franklin | 49 min |
| Nov 1, 2:29 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Claiborne, Copiah, Hinds, Warren | 47 min |
| Nov 1, 2:34 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Copiah, Hinds, Lincoln | 86 min |
| Nov 1, 2:39 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Holmes, Humphreys, Madison, Warren, Yazoo | 66 min |
| Nov 1, 2:41 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Hinds, Madison, Warren | 49 min |
| Nov 1, 3:05 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Copiah, Lincoln | 42 min |
| Nov 1, 3:07 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Holmes, Madison, Yazoo | 40 min |
| Nov 1, 3:21 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Madison, Rankin | 84 min |
| Nov 1, 3:24 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Carroll, Choctaw, Grenada, Montgomery, Webster | 51 min |
| Nov 1, 3:28 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Attala, Holmes | 62 min |
| Nov 1, 3:32 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Simpson | 88 min |
| Nov 1, 3:34 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Madison, Rankin | 38 min |
| Nov 1, 3:53 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Leake, Scott, Smith | 85 min |
| Nov 1, 3:56 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Rankin | 15 min |
| Nov 1, 4:01 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Marion | 20 min |
| Nov 1, 4:19 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Lamar | 56 min |
| Nov 1, 4:23 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Marion | 39 min |
| Nov 1, 4:26 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Choctaw, Clay, Oktibbeha, Webster | 49 min |
| Nov 1, 4:29 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Leake, Scott | 27 min |
| Nov 1, 4:32 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Scott, Smith | 41 min |
| Nov 1, 4:34 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Attala, Choctaw, Winston | 35 min |
| Nov 1, 4:36 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Forrest, Lamar | 21 min |
| Nov 1, 4:40 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Covington | 50 min |
| Nov 1, 4:54 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Kemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Newton | 66 min |
| Nov 1, 4:54 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Jasper, Newton, Scott, Smith | 54 min |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Jasper | 72 min |
| Nov 1, 5:04 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Jones | 56 min |
| Nov 1, 5:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha | 67 min |
| Nov 1, 5:12 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Noxubee, Winston | 63 min |
| Nov 1, 5:12 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Forrest, Lamar | 39 min |
| Nov 1, 5:20 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Noxubee, Winston | 35 min |
| Nov 1, 5:27 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Jones | 2 hr |
| Nov 1, 5:38 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Kemper, Lauderdale | 67 min |
| Nov 1, 5:41 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Clarke | 64 min |
| Nov 1, 5:46 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Lowndes, Oktibbeha | 40 min |
| Nov 1, 5:52 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Kemper, Lauderdale | 68 min |
| Nov 1, 6:18 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | JAN | Clarke, Lauderdale | 35 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.