Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Jackson, MS

November 1, 2018Leake County, Scott County, Smith County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 1, 2018, 3:53 AM CDT for Leake County, Scott County, Smith County, Mississippi. It was in force for 85 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 1, 2018, 3:53 AM CDT (08:53 UTC)
Expired
Nov 1, 2018, 5:18 AM CDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Leake County, MS, Scott County, MS, Smith County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 1, 4:22 AM CDTTSTM WND DMG7 N Morton, MSSWATH OF TREES DOWN IN THE FORKVILLE AREA, POSSIBLE TORNADO.
Nov 1, 4:23 AM CDTTORNADO7 Nnw Forest, MSCORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 7 NNW FOREST. AN EF1 TORNADO DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2018. NUMEROUS BROKEN AND SNAPPED PINE TREE LIMBS WERE INITIALLY NOTED ALONG GORDON ROAD WHICH IS WE
Nov 1, 4:29 AM CDTTORNADO2 Sw Polkville, MSCORRECTS TIME OF PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 2 SW POLKVILLE. TORNADO BEGAN IN THE FOREST JUST EAST OF RANKIN/SMITH COUNTY LINE. MOST DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES AS IT TRAVELED EAST-NORTHEAST FOR NEARLY 4 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF POLKVILLE. SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE
Nov 1, 4:56 AM CDTTSTM WND DMG10 Ssw Lake, MSA LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SMITH COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2018. ITS ASSOCIATED WIND GUST RESULTED IN SEVERAL SNAPPED SOFTWOOD TREES MAINLY ALONG COUNTRY ROAD 515.
Nov 1, 5:01 AM CDTTORNADO9 Ssw Lake, MSCORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 9 SSW LAKE. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED AN EF1 TORNADO, WHICH MOVED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS RURAL NORTHEAST SMITH COUNTY TO ACROSS RURAL SOUTHEAST SCOTT COUNTY. THIS TORNADO CAUSED LARGE TREE LIMBS A
Nov 1, 5:01 AM CDTTORNADO9 Ssw Lake, MSA LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED AN EF1 TORNADO, WHICH MOVED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS RURAL NORTHEAST SMITH COUNTY TO ACROSS RURAL SOUTHEAST SCOTT COUNTY. THIS TORNADO CAUSED LARGE TREE LIMBS AND TRUNKS TO SNAP. A LARGE PINE TREE THAT SNAPPED

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 29 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Oct 31, 11:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPC9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2018-11-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 97 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2018-11-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 118 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
97 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1135 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
215 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

374 
WUUS54 KJAN 010853
SVRJAN
MSC079-123-129-011030-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0409.181101T0853Z-181101T1030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
353 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Leake County in central Mississippi...
  Smith County in central Mississippi...
  Scott County in central Mississippi...

* Until 530 AM CDT.

* At 353 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Newport to near Rockport, moving east at 40
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Forest, Carthage, Morton, Edinburg, Harperville, Raleigh,
  Taylorsville, Homewood, Ludlow, Renfroe, Pulaski, Forkville,
  Branch, Thomastown, White Oak, Tuscola, Steele, Hillsboro, Madden
  and Singleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central,
southeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3204 8966 3205 8973 3237 8973 3257 8978
      3264 8973 3293 8973 3293 8932 3180 8932
      3178 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 268DEG 34KT 3287 8979 3183 9015 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DL
2 follow-up statements
614 
WWUS54 KJAN 010957 RRA
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
457 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSC079-123-129-011030-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0409.000000T0000Z-181101T1030Z/
Leake MS-Smith MS-Scott MS-
457 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN LEAKE...SMITH AND EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

At 457 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Stallo to Taylorsville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Forest, Edinburg, Harperville, Raleigh, Taylorsville, Homewood,
Tuscola, Renfroe, Steele, Hillsboro, Madden, Pineville, Burns, Walnut
Grove, Mize, Lake, Sebastopol, Sylvarena and Standing Pine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for central,
southeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3234 8958 3293 8947 3293 8932 3180 8932
      3178 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 268DEG 34KT 3289 8908 3185 8945 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM
578 
WWUS54 KJAN 011018
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
518 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSC079-123-129-011028-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0409.000000T0000Z-181101T1030Z/
Leake MS-Smith MS-Scott MS-
518 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LEAKE...SMITH AND
EASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for central,
southeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3234 8958 3293 8947 3293 8932 3180 8932
      3178 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1015Z 268DEG 34KT 3290 8887 3186 8924 

$$

JM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 1, 1:15 AM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 1:15 AM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
115 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion. Also made slight adjustments
to the short-term forecast through Thursday night to account for
trends in cold front timing.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF discussion:
The main concern for this TAF period is a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms aligned north to south across the region. This line
of thunderstorms will quickly push east through the TAF sites,
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions and wind gusts of up to 25 to 30
kts. There is a chance for stronger gusts if a severe thunderstorm
impacts any of the TAF sites. Storms will clear from west to east,
departing the KGLH area by around 10Z Thursday and the TAF sites
in eastern Mississippi by 14Z. A few showers may linger for a few
hours. Otherwise expect a lingering MVFR stratus deck and westerly
winds through the remainder of the period. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening update discussion:

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms have been blossoming in the
vicinity of the Arklatex and the Sabine River Valley so far this
evening, generally as expected. One, potentially important, trend
is very robust convection anchoring across southwestern LA, and
this convection may be impeding optimal moisture advection
farther north. This could result in severe weather potential
being more limited across portions of the Arklamiss Delta, but it
will likely not affect the previously-delineated ENHANCED severe
thunderstorm potential late tonight along and south of I-20 (at
least across most the relevant MS counties in our warning area).
We will examine trends a bit longer and may adjust our severe
outlook graphic to represent implications of mentioned trend. Our
00Z JAN sounding was not yet very impressive from an instability
perspective (MLCAPE values less than 500 j/kg), but confidence is
high that instability will increase over the heart of the region
when the meat of the trough axis (and associated numerous showers
and thunderstorms) arrive. Shear will improve, as well, by that
time and deliver enough cape/shear juxtaposition to keep damaging
winds (including some tornadoes) a valid concern. Still looks like
the predominate convective model will be more-or-less linear,
although the latest hires model guidance suggests we cannot
completely let our guard down against pre-line isolated
supercells. Of course, any supercells would have more potential
for strong tornadoes (especially along and west of I-55).

Otherwise, the most worrisome convection is advancing toward the
region steadily and looks to advance eastward through the
forecast area by 7 to 8 am. Our timing graphics have recently been
adjusted to best represent our current thinking in this regard. We
will be doing a special sounding at JAN at 6 UTC (i.e., shortly
after midnight) to best assess atmospheric instability and shear
in advance of convection. Finally, tornado watch #418 is in effect
for mainly our LA parishes through 4 am. Current expectations are
that the worst of the storms will be east of this watch before 4
am and it is very likely the Storm Prediction Center will be
issuing another tornado watch to cover a large portion of MS
counties by (or before) midnight. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Through tomorrow...

The main focus through the near term forecast period will continue
to be the severe weather and flash flooding threat tonight into
tomorrow morning. The synoptic pattern features ridging along the
Atlantic Coast with a potent shortwave trough ejecting out of the
Desert Southwest and into the southern Great Plains. This has
resulted in southwest flow aloft over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley with an elongated quasi-stationary frontal boundary at the
surface draped from northeast Texas into northern Arkansas. The
advancing shortwave trough will help induce surface cyclogenesis
along the frontal boundary by early this evening with a deepening
low tracking across central Arkansas into far west Tennessee
overnight. The resulting mass response will strengthen low-level flow
and shear helping to organize a robust QLCS that will move through
the ArkLaMiss overnight.

Severe weather threat: warm air advection showers and thunderstorms
are already ongoing across the Delta with additional convective
development ongoing along the Gulf Coast. There is a low end threat
that a few of these storms could become marginally severe late this
afternoon through the early evening hours as they quickly move north
through the Delta. However, the primary severe weather threat will
be associated with the aforementioned QLCS which is progged to move
into northeast Louisiana/southeast Arkansas around 9-10pm tonight. A
stout 40-50kt low-level jet will help strengthen 0-1km shear and
helicity with 30-40kts and 300-400 m2/s2 respectively. In fact, the
majority of the effective shear will reside in the lowest 1km with 0-
6km deep layer shear of 50kts. Marine layer air with 65 to near 70
degree dewpoints will reside along and south of the I-20 corridor
and will help foster 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE despite the typical
nocturnal instability minimum. These CAPE values will be more than
sufficient for severe weather owing to the substantial shear in
place. Some degree of uncertainty remains with respect to convective
evolution, however the overall thinking is that convection will
organize into a QLCS upstream over portions of Texas and Louisiana
before moving through the area. There has been consistent support
from hi-res CAM guidance that a cluster of supercells ahead of the
QLCS could develop over central Louisiana and move northeast along
and south of the I-20 corridor. The greatest potential for
tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, will exist with this
activity. The main threat with the QLCS itself will be for damaging
winds up to 70mph and embedded tornadoes, especially where bowing
segments become aligned with the 0-3km shear vectors and with any
strong MCVs that are able to form. Went ahead and expanded the
enhanced area further east to the I-59 corridor given latest model
trends and collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center. The
severe storms should be exiting eastern Mississippi into Alabama by
7-8am tomorrow morning.

Flash flooding threat: an anomalously moist airmass with PWATs near
2" (90th percentile) and impressive integrated water vapor transport
(IVT values in the 99th percentile) will aid in efficient rainfall
rates. Widespread 1-2" of rain will be likely with localized amounts
of 3-4" possible. This rain will fall in a short amount of time,
however dry antecedent conditions will preclude a greater flash
flood threat. Will continue to advertise a limited risk area wide in
the HWO/graphics, but the higher totals are anticipated to occur
south of the I-20 corridor.

The cold front will lag behind the line of storms and will move
through the area during the day Thursday into the evening hours. A
few isolated/scattered showers could continue behind the front as
the trough axis and vorticity maximum move through. These showers
will be most likely over the Hwy 82 corridor. Cold air advection
behind the front will also help keep temperatures cooler tomorrow as
well. /TW/

Thursday night through next Tuesday...

The mid/upper trough axis will swing east through the Lower
Mississippi River Valley Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile,
high pressure at the surface will build into the forecast area as
well. Noticeably cooler drier air will advect into the CWA in the
process under northwest flow, with clouds gradually exiting the
region as the aforementioned trough axis does likewise through the
course of the day Friday. After cooler drier conditions Thursday
night through Friday, surface winds will begin to swing around
from the south Saturday into Sunday, as another front approaches
from the west late Sunday night. Still, quiet and fairly pleasant
weather is expected from Thursday night through at least Sunday,
with conditions steadily warming through the upcoming weekend.

In the Sunday night through Tuesday timeframe, rain chances
currently look to increase across the region.  This will be as a
result of the before mentioned cold front pushing into the region.
There could be a window during this period where the potential
exists for severe storms over at least a portion of the CWA.
However, given continuing inconsistencies in model run-to-run
solutions, and periodic disagreements in models, no mention of this
potential will be made into the HWO or associated graphics. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  48  61  43 /  60  24  11   5
Meridian      72  50  61  43 /  95  32  14   5
Vicksburg     67  47  63  44 /  56  21   9   6
Hattiesburg   75  52  63  44 /  97  28  11   3
Natchez       68  48  64  46 /  57  18   8   4
Greenville    65  46  63  43 /  56  20  11   9
Greenwood     68  45  61  43 /  61  22  12   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/19/BB
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 4:47 PM CDT, 11 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-041-042-012200-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Sharkey-Yazoo-
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms expected across the area starting this
evening in the ArkLaMiss Delta. These will track east through the
region overnight, exiting the eastern part of the outlook area
during tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat,
but tornadoes will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into
tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one
to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall
in a short amount of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ030>033-038-039-044>046-058-012200-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Clarke-
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late Tonight through early Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Late Tonight through early Thursday

Severe thunderstorms expected across the area starting this
evening in the ArkLaMiss Delta. These will track east through the
region overnight, exiting the eastern part of the outlook area
during tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat,
but tornadoes will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into
tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one
to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in
a short amount of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-047-053-059-060-012200-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Warren-Claiborne-
Jefferson-Adams-
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight
and persist into tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the
main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest
threat for tornadoes will be across Northeast Louisiana, and
portions of central, west central, and southwest Mississippi,
where some strong tornadoes
are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into
tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one
to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall
in a short amount of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ037-012200-
Attala-
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Late Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms expected across the area starting this
evening in the ArkLaMiss Delta. These will track east through the
region overnight, exiting the eastern part of the outlook area
during tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat,
but tornadoes will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into
tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one
to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall
in a short amount of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late
tonight.

MSZ043-048-054-061-012200-
Madison MS-Hinds-Copiah-Franklin MS-
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late Tonight

The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight
and persist into early tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are
the main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest
threat for tornadoes will be across Northeast Louisiana, and
portions of central, west central, and southwest Mississippi,
where some strong tornadoes are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into early
tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one
to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall in
a short amount of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through early Thursday.

MSZ049>052-055>057-062>066-072>074-012200-
Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
447 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late Tonight through Thursday morning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late Tonight through early Thursday morning

The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase late tonight
and persist into tomorrow morning. Damaging wind gusts are the
main threat, but tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest
threat for tornadoes will be across Northeast Louisiana, and
portions of central, west central, and southwest Mississippi,
where some strong tornadoes are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is also possible late tonight into
tomorrow morning across the outlook area. Rainfall totals of one
to four inches with locally higher amounts possible, could fall
in a short amount of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday morning.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 1, 2:59 AM CDT, 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FERRIDAY                31.63N 91.55W
11/01/2018                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED IN FERRIDAY.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Nov 1, 3:07 AM CDT, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW VICKSBURG          32.30N 90.91W
11/01/2018                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON WARRENTON ROAD.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Nov 1, 3:09 AM CDT, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE VICKSBURG         32.34N 90.85W
11/01/2018                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWNED AT 450 OLD HIGHWAY 27.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Nov 1, 3:33 AM CDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW RUSSUM            31.82N 91.05W
11/01/2018                   JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS HIGHWAY 552 NEAR HIGHWAY
            61.

&&

DC
Local storm report, Nov 1, 3:45 AM CDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW JACKSON            32.33N 90.22W
11/01/2018  M51 MPH          HINDS              MS   ASOS

&&

DC
Local storm report, Nov 1, 3:51 AM CDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CRYSTAL SPRINGS         31.99N 90.36W
11/01/2018                   COPIAH             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN CRYSTAL SPRINGS.

&&

DC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 1, 1:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAdams, Claiborne, Jefferson90 min
Nov 1, 1:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Sharkey, Warren63 min
Nov 1, 1:46 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar, Humphreys, Issaquena, Sharkey, Sunflower, Washington59 min
Nov 1, 1:53 AM CDTTornado WarningJANAdams, Jefferson42 min
Nov 1, 2:00 AM CDTTornado WarningJANIssaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo45 min
Nov 1, 2:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Franklin, Jefferson, Warren54 min
Nov 1, 2:22 AM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANFranklin, Jefferson53 min
Nov 1, 2:26 AM CDTTornado WarningJANAdams, Franklin49 min
Nov 1, 2:29 AM CDTTornado WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Hinds, Warren47 min
Nov 1, 2:34 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCopiah, Hinds, Lincoln86 min
Nov 1, 2:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCarroll, Grenada, Holmes, Humphreys, Leflore53 min
Nov 1, 2:39 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHolmes, Humphreys, Madison, Warren, Yazoo66 min
Nov 1, 2:41 AM CDTTornado WarningJANHinds, Madison, Warren49 min
Nov 1, 3:05 AM CDTTornado WarningJANCopiah, Lincoln42 min
Nov 1, 3:07 AM CDTTornado WarningJANHolmes, Madison, Yazoo40 min
Nov 1, 3:21 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison, Rankin84 min
Nov 1, 3:24 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCarroll, Choctaw, Grenada, Montgomery, Webster51 min
Nov 1, 3:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Holmes62 min
Nov 1, 3:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJefferson Davis, Lawrence, Simpson88 min
Nov 1, 3:34 AM CDTTornado WarningJANMadison, Rankin38 min
Nov 1, 3:56 AM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANRankin15 min
Nov 1, 4:01 AM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANMarion20 min
Nov 1, 4:19 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLamar56 min
Nov 1, 4:23 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMarion39 min
Nov 1, 4:26 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChoctaw, Clay, Oktibbeha, Webster49 min
Nov 1, 4:29 AM CDTTornado WarningJANLeake, Scott27 min
Nov 1, 4:32 AM CDTTornado WarningJANScott, Smith41 min
Nov 1, 4:34 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Choctaw, Winston35 min
Nov 1, 4:36 AM CDTTornado WarningJANForrest, Lamar21 min
Nov 1, 4:40 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington50 min
Nov 1, 4:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANKemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Newton66 min
Nov 1, 4:54 AM CDTTornado WarningJANJasper, Newton, Scott, Smith54 min
Nov 1, 5:03 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJasper72 min
Nov 1, 5:04 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJones56 min
Nov 1, 5:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha67 min
Nov 1, 5:12 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNoxubee, Winston63 min
Nov 1, 5:12 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANForrest, Lamar39 min
Nov 1, 5:20 AM CDTTornado WarningJANNoxubee, Winston35 min
Nov 1, 5:27 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANJones2 hr
Nov 1, 5:38 AM CDTTornado WarningJANKemper, Lauderdale67 min
Nov 1, 5:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClarke64 min
Nov 1, 5:46 AM CDTTornado WarningJANLowndes, Oktibbeha40 min
Nov 1, 5:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANKemper, Lauderdale68 min
Nov 1, 6:18 AM CDTTornado WarningJANClarke, Lauderdale35 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.