Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as
a strong upper level disturbance tracks through. A few
thunderstorms may become severe with damaging winds, small hail,
heavy rain, and perhaps an isolated tornado the threats. Chances
for on and off showers will remain in the forecast tonight through
Sunday. Lows will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 70s this
weekend. A mainly dry and warmer pattern is expected next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Main focus through 21/22z will remain maintenance/intensity of
quasi-linear line segment nearing the I-69 corridor as of 19z.
Several brief bowing segments and mesovorts noted but nothing
reported with line so far. Effective shear values of 25-30 knots
enough for this organization though activity now pushing east into
a more stable environment as warm sector erodes with front now
occluded. Will carry the Tornado Watch through the late aftn into
ne IN/sc Lower MI with possible extension east into nw OH if QLCS
strengthens. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, best chances over the next 2 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Vigorous vertically stacked low in southeast WI will wobble slowly
southeast into southern Lake MI tonight and over the local area on
Saturday. Deep moisture associated with this feature and series of
vort maxes to rotate around the upper low will keep showers and
chances for isolated storms in the forecast during this time.
Greater coverage and intensity is expected late this aftn/early eve
and again Saturday afternoon thanks to daytime heating. Strong-
severe storms are not expected tonight-Saturday, though will have
to keep an eye out for funnel clouds/landspouts Saturday afternoon
given the ambient vorticity near the low. Overcast/moist airmass
limits diurnal temp ranges otherwise with lows in the 60s tonight
and highs mid 70s tomorrow.

Shower coverage/chances the gradually diminish into Saturday night
and Sunday as main circulation and stronger deformation forcing
shifts off to the south. Drier air and some subsidence may also work
in by Sunday, especially across northern portions of the forecast
area. Temps will likely be a few degrees warmer on Sunday with highs
generally in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

A rather typical late July week is expected with seasonable temps
and mainly dry conditions. Did retain very low PoPs for afternoon
showers on Monday and Tuesday southeast of US 24 given close
proximity to a leftover trough axis. Otherwise temps warm a bit into
Tuesday-Wednesday before broad troughing redevelops over the Great
Lakes supporting slightly cooler temps and low humidity by Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Thunderstorms with sig restrictions and potentially some stronger
wind gusts will be the primary concern this afternoon as a strong
vort max and occluded front traverse northern IN. Latest radar and
hi-res guidance hints at main impacts between 1730 and 1930z at
KSBN and between 1930-22z at KFWA. These thunderstorms may become
severe. VFR to low MVFR cigs with breezy ssw winds otherwise this
afternoon. An upper low will bring lowering cigs and on and off
showers to the area tonight into Saturday, best chances for rain
and eventually IFR stratus at KSBN in closer proximity to the main
circulation center.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Steinwedel
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

MIZ077>081-210900-
Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could be strong
to severe with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High risk for rip currents on Lake Michigan Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022-023-210900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /324 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms may be severe
with damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High risk for rip currents on Lake Michigan Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-025-210900-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Allen OH-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could be strong
to severe with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ024>027-032>034-OHZ024-210900-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Van Wert-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms may be severe
with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-210900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon. Hazardous
conditions for small craft will exist through this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected Saturday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
114 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ003-004-012-014-MIZ077-201800-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Marshall-Starke-Berrien-
114 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. JOSEPH...EASTERN
STARKE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 114 PM EDT/1214 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near Three Oaks to near Culver.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, La Porte, Niles, Plymouth, Buchanan, Knox,
Georgetown, Gulivoire Park, Fair Plain, Granger, Bridgman, Walkerton,
North Liberty, New Carlisle, Berrien Springs, Three Oaks, Hamlet,
Lakeville and Roseland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 49 and 80.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 9 and 12, and between
mile markers 28 and 30.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 8641 4180 8622 4176 8623 4176 8620
      4153 8606 4119 8656 4171 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 217DEG 31KT 4173 8666 4130 8644

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
124 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ012>015-022-201800-
Cass-Marshall-Fulton-Pulaski-Starke-
124 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PULASKI...
FULTON...NORTHWESTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN STARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 122 PM EDT/1222 PM CDT/, strong thunderstorms were clustered from
near Culver to Royal Center moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch diameter size hail, frequent
lightning and brief heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Rochester, Bremen, Winamac, Bourbon, Argos, Culver, Royal
Center, Pulaski, Walnut, Kewanna, Fulton, Monterey, Leiters Ford,
Beardstown, Nyena Lake, Leases Corner, Hibbard, Delong and Lake
Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8660 4148 8613 4101 8611 4100 8613
      4100 8617 4097 8617 4076 8649 4083 8658
      4091 8658 4091 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 240DEG 49KT 4105 8647

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ004-005-MIZ077-078-201900-
St. Joseph-Elkhart-Berrien-Cass-
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELKHART...EASTERN ST.
JOSEPH...CASS AND EASTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 204 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lake Michigan Beach to near Niles to
near Bremen. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Elkhart, Mishawaka, Goshen, Niles, Benton Harbor, St.
Joseph, Dowagiac, Georgetown, Gulivoire Park, Granger, Dunlap, Benton
Heights, Fair Plain, Simonton Lake, Middlebury, Osceola, Berrien
Springs, Cassopolis and Wakarusa.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 196 between mile markers 0 and 7.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 77 and 104.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 27 and 42.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4207 8583 4200 8578 4189 8576
      4180 8576 4177 8579 4176 8573 4148 8568
      4148 8624 4178 8626 4211 8650 4214 8646
      4224 8636 4224 8622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 238DEG 27KT 4219 8644 4182 8619 4151 8613

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ008-016-017-201945-
Noble-Whitley-Kosciusko-
252 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN NOBLE...
NORTHERN WHITLEY AND NORTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...

At 252 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Ligonier to near Pierceton. Movement
was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Winona Lake, Tri-lakes, Albion, North Webster, Pierceton,
Etna, Cromwell, Brimfield, Big Barbee Lake, Ridinger Lake, Lorane,
Merriam, Big Lake, Irish Lake, Lake Wawasee, Bear Lake, Little
Chapman Lake, Green Center and Wilmot.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 8534 4125 8535 4114 8582 4140 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 258DEG 15KT 4142 8565 4118 8568

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW NAPPANEE           41.45N 86.00W
07/20/2018                   ELKHART            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BARN AND ROOF DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MIZ079-080-201945-
Branch-St. Joseph-
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ST. JOSEPH AND NORTHWESTERN
BRANCH COUNTIES...

At 309 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Centreville, or
7 miles east of Three Rivers, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, frequent lightning and brief
heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sturgis, Three Rivers, Union City, Centreville, Colon, Nottawa,
Flowerfield, Fawn River, Leonidas, Mendon, Burr Oak, Sherwood, Moore
Park, Fishers Lake, Fairfax, Wasepi, Findley, Matteson Lake and
Hodunk.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8498 4176 8536 4176 8549 4195 8568
      4207 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 226DEG 33KT 4191 8550

NWS