Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as
a strong upper level disturbance tracks through. A few
thunderstorms may become severe with damaging winds, small hail,
heavy rain, and perhaps an isolated tornado the threats. Chances
for on and off showers will remain in the forecast tonight through
Sunday. Lows will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 70s this
weekend. A mainly dry and warmer pattern is expected next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Main focus through 21/22z will remain maintenance/intensity of
quasi-linear line segment nearing the I-69 corridor as of 19z.
Several brief bowing segments and mesovorts noted but nothing
reported with line so far. Effective shear values of 25-30 knots
enough for this organization though activity now pushing east into
a more stable environment as warm sector erodes with front now
occluded. Will carry the Tornado Watch through the late aftn into
ne IN/sc Lower MI with possible extension east into nw OH if QLCS
strengthens. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, best chances over the next 2 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Vigorous vertically stacked low in southeast WI will wobble slowly
southeast into southern Lake MI tonight and over the local area on
Saturday. Deep moisture associated with this feature and series of
vort maxes to rotate around the upper low will keep showers and
chances for isolated storms in the forecast during this time.
Greater coverage and intensity is expected late this aftn/early eve
and again Saturday afternoon thanks to daytime heating. Strong-
severe storms are not expected tonight-Saturday, though will have
to keep an eye out for funnel clouds/landspouts Saturday afternoon
given the ambient vorticity near the low. Overcast/moist airmass
limits diurnal temp ranges otherwise with lows in the 60s tonight
and highs mid 70s tomorrow.

Shower coverage/chances the gradually diminish into Saturday night
and Sunday as main circulation and stronger deformation forcing
shifts off to the south. Drier air and some subsidence may also work
in by Sunday, especially across northern portions of the forecast
area. Temps will likely be a few degrees warmer on Sunday with highs
generally in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

A rather typical late July week is expected with seasonable temps
and mainly dry conditions. Did retain very low PoPs for afternoon
showers on Monday and Tuesday southeast of US 24 given close
proximity to a leftover trough axis. Otherwise temps warm a bit into
Tuesday-Wednesday before broad troughing redevelops over the Great
Lakes supporting slightly cooler temps and low humidity by Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Thunderstorms with sig restrictions and potentially some stronger
wind gusts will be the primary concern this afternoon as a strong
vort max and occluded front traverse northern IN. Latest radar and
hi-res guidance hints at main impacts between 1730 and 1930z at
KSBN and between 1930-22z at KFWA. These thunderstorms may become
severe. VFR to low MVFR cigs with breezy ssw winds otherwise this
afternoon. An upper low will bring lowering cigs and on and off
showers to the area tonight into Saturday, best chances for rain
and eventually IFR stratus at KSBN in closer proximity to the main
circulation center.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Steinwedel
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGTON              40.88N 85.51W
07/20/2018                   HUNTINGTON         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1"-1.25 " TREE BRANCHES DOWN. MINOR STREET
            FLOODING.

&&

GH

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