Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Northern Indiana

651 
WWUS53 KIWX 201814
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INC049-085-099-201845-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-180720T1845Z/
Fulton IN-Kosciusko IN-Marshall IN-
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FULTON...KOSCIUSKO AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES...

At 214 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Milford to Warsaw to Akron, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Akron, North Webster, Pierceton,
Mentone, Etna Green, Leesburg, Claypool, Burket, Sidney, Big Barbee
Lake, Ridinger Lake, Monoquet, Hoffman Lake, Atwood, Irish Lake,
Beaver Dam Lake and Lake Wawasee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for north central
and northeastern Indiana.

LAT...LON 4142 8565 4121 8565 4118 8566 4118 8569
      4105 8569 4104 8594 4101 8595 4100 8611
      4106 8612 4136 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 249DEG 31KT 4138 8589 4123 8588 4102 8602 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MARSILI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
107 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as
a strong upper level disturbance tracks through. A few
thunderstorms may become severe with damaging winds, small hail,
heavy rain, and perhaps an isolated tornado the threats. Chances
for on and off showers will remain in the forecast tonight through
Sunday. Lows will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 70s this
weekend. A mainly dry and warmer pattern is expected next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Forecast is in good shape with only some minor changes to the day
1 SPC outlook (9 am update) for this afternoon. Broken lines of
convection across central/eastern portions will continue to
translate east as narrow dry slot/warm sector follows late morning
into the early afternoon. Mid level lapse rates to 7.5 C/km and
MUCAPE values up to 1000 j/kg may produce some SPS worthy storms
(pea size hail, gusts 30-40 mph, heavy rain) with this initial
batch this morning.

Latest VIS trends suggest a few hours of at least partial
insolation within dry slot late morning and early afternoon. This
heating in combination with mid-upper 60s sfc dewpoints and
cooling aloft should push MLCAPE values to 1200-2000 j/kg by
18-19z, highest south of US 30 in IN. 0-3 km bulk shear values
appear favorable for organization across the southern half of the
forecast area, while more favorable deep layer shear remains well
south of the local area. Potent vort max over northern IL will
ripple east providing the lift for multiple clusters of convection
between 18z and 00z. SPC did increase tornado probabilities a bit,
especially near IN/OH border where evolving convection eventually
catches up to the above mentioned warm front. Otherwise no change
to the Day 1 outlook with damaging winds, small hail, and non-
zero tornado chances the main risks. Our latest thinking here at
the office is parameters favor areas along/south of US 24 in IN
for higher severe probs after 18z...with shear/instability
balance more marginal across the northern half of the IWX CWA.
Stay tuned as this is an unusual setup for late July.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Linear squall line progressing through srn IL hampering convective
development here locally this morning as it subdues better low level
moisture flux/theta-e advection as evident in strong subsidence seen
in GOES 16 water vapor. Eventual decay of this convection should
yield further newd development toward daybreak through ecntrl IN/nw
OH. Otherwise primary development not anticipated til early aftn
tied to vigorous sw disturbance ovr nrn IA wrapping through srn
periphery of upper low and progged into far nw IN by 18Z. At least
partial insolation expected prior with conditional svr risk (wind)
tied to degree of realized sfc based destabilization as effective
shear adequate to support organized convection. However better svr
prospects along with some tor risk seen further south into cntrl IN
where stronger mid level flow overlaps channel of backed sfc flow
and where greater sfc based instability should manifest.

Nevertheless approach of upper low and continued forcing aloft will
keep threat of showers going overnight especially nw half in
proximity to upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Upper low over srn lake MI to start the period will quickly drop swd
into the TN valley by late Sun. Decent deformation based forcing
expected Sat within as yet still vigorous circulation aloft.
Thereafter feature opens up and weakens with general drying
spreading n-s following across the area Sun. Consensus blend
generally accepted here with decaying shower threat with time late
Sat night through Sun evening.

Thereafter followed EC/GEM composite taking associated mid level
trough influence east which has been the going trend as GFS
continues to to suffer from its typical convective feedback. Mon/Tue
aftn pops could be dropped yet will hold for another model
cycle/continuity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Thunderstorms with sig restrictions and potentially some stronger
wind gusts will be the primary concern this afternoon as a strong
vort max and occluded front traverse northern IN. Latest radar and
hi-res guidance hints at main impacts between 1730 and 1930z at
KSBN and between 1930-22z at KFWA. These thunderstorms may become
severe. VFR to low MVFR cigs with breezy ssw winds otherwise this
afternoon. An upper low will bring lowering cigs and on and off
showers to the area tonight into Saturday, best chances for rain
and eventually IFR stratus at KSBN in closer proximity to the main
circulation center.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...Steinwedel
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

MIZ077>081-210900-
Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could be strong
to severe with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High risk for rip currents on Lake Michigan Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022-023-210900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /324 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms may be severe
with damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High risk for rip currents on Lake Michigan Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-025-210900-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Allen OH-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could be strong
to severe with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ024>027-032>034-OHZ024-210900-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Van Wert-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms may be severe
with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-210900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
424 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon. Hazardous
conditions for small craft will exist through this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected Saturday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
955 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MIZ079-201430-
St. Joseph-
955 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY...

At 954 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Three Rivers,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm. Brief heavy rainfall is also expected with this thunderstorm.

Locations impacted include...
Three Rivers, Centreville, Mendon, Moore Park, Fishers Lake and
Wasepi.

Seek shelter until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4184 8554 4192 8573 4207 8564 4207 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1354Z 209DEG 27KT 4195 8558

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1041 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ033-034-201530-
Jay-Blackford-
1041 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BLACKFORD AND JAY
COUNTIES...

At 1039 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered from near
Hartford City to Portland, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch size hail, frequent lightning and
brief heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Hartford City, Dunkirk, Redkey, Pennville, Westchester,
Center, Bryant, Shamrock Lakes, Salamonia, Trinity, Brice, Mill
Grove, Como, Bellfountain, Collett, Balbec, New Mount Pleasant,
College Corner and Boundary City.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 8522 4038 8522 4038 8544 4043 8544
      4057 8519 4057 8481 4031 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 239DEG 47KT 4038 8533

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE ANGOLA            41.65N 84.98W
07/20/2018                   STEUBEN            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO SEVERAL LARGE TREES. SOME TREES
            SNAPPED AT CENTER.

&&

NDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1253 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ013-020-201730-
White-Pulaski-
1253 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WHITE AND
PULASKI COUNTIES...

At 1252 PM EDT/1152 AM CDT/, strong thunderstorms were clustered near
Monon, or 9 miles west of Monticello, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, frequent lightning and brief
heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Winamac, Monon, Wolcott, Francesville, Pulaski, Ripley, Reynolds,
Monterey, Beardstown, Vanmeter Park, Lakeside In Pulaski County,
Denham, Headlee, Lee, Lawton, Sitka, Star City, Thornhope, Bell
Center and Buffalo.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 8704 4084 8699 4091 8699 4091 8693
      4099 8693 4117 8680 4117 8647 4093 8650
      4091 8655 4091 8658 4089 8658 4069 8700
      4079 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 240DEG 41KT 4079 8693

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
114 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ003-004-012-014-MIZ077-201800-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Marshall-Starke-Berrien-
114 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. JOSEPH...EASTERN
STARKE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 114 PM EDT/1214 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near Three Oaks to near Culver.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, La Porte, Niles, Plymouth, Buchanan, Knox,
Georgetown, Gulivoire Park, Fair Plain, Granger, Bridgman, Walkerton,
North Liberty, New Carlisle, Berrien Springs, Three Oaks, Hamlet,
Lakeville and Roseland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 49 and 80.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 9 and 12, and between
mile markers 28 and 30.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 8641 4180 8622 4176 8623 4176 8620
      4153 8606 4119 8656 4171 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 217DEG 31KT 4173 8666 4130 8644

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
124 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ012>015-022-201800-
Cass-Marshall-Fulton-Pulaski-Starke-
124 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PULASKI...
FULTON...NORTHWESTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN STARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 122 PM EDT/1222 PM CDT/, strong thunderstorms were clustered from
near Culver to Royal Center moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch diameter size hail, frequent
lightning and brief heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Rochester, Bremen, Winamac, Bourbon, Argos, Culver, Royal
Center, Pulaski, Walnut, Kewanna, Fulton, Monterey, Leiters Ford,
Beardstown, Nyena Lake, Leases Corner, Hibbard, Delong and Lake
Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8660 4148 8613 4101 8611 4100 8613
      4100 8617 4097 8617 4076 8649 4083 8658
      4091 8658 4091 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 240DEG 49KT 4105 8647

NWS