Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

One cluster of storms tracked out of northeast KS with additional
elevated convection over sw Nebraska. Quasi stationary front is
currently situated between KICT and KHUT and looks to be pushing
back to the northwest.

Should continue to see some isolated showers and storms percolate
across parts of central KS this morning due to some continued warm
advection along a mid level baroclinic zone. In addition, have a
few circulations showing up on radar from remnants of evening
storms west of the forecast area. One of these circulations
caused a minor heat burst at KHUT around 1 am.

Very difficult shower/storm forecast for the next few days due to
lack of strong upper forcing and surface focus for Tue and Wed.
Current thinking is that storms will once again develop along the
front late this afternoon into the early evening, generally after
4 pm. By the time storms develop, front should be near the KS
Turnpike. Even though shear will be limited, CAPE values around
3500J/KG will be sufficient for some large hail with wet
microburst winds also a possibility. While widespread flooding is
not expected, very high rainfall rates will be likely with the
stronger storms which may lead to some localized flooding. This
activity should slowly push off to the southeast tonight and with
850mb flow veering and much weaker than last couple nights, not
sure how much redevelopment we will see tonight. In addition,
there looks to be some mid level ridging passing over the area
which may limit further overnight convection.

Surface front will start to wash out Tue as it slides south and by
Tue afternoon should extend from southeast KS into western OK.
Confidence in storms developing along the front is low, due to
lack of decent surface convergence. Have higher confidence in
storms developing in the upslope regime across eastern CO and on
the dryline over the TX Panhandle. Precip forecast for Wed becomes
very messy, with some model agreement in tracking convectively
induced impulses, from Tue afternoon over the high Plains, into
the forecast area for late Tue night into Wed. While this scenario
isn't completely out of the question, it will be tough at this
point to pin down areal extent and timing of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

There is good model agreement in some upper ridging passing over
the area for Thu which will push the better rain chances
southeast. However, both ECMWF and GFS agree on another slow
moving upper wave tracking over the Great Basin for the end of the
work week. This will keep rich low level moisture in place across
the Plains. Best storm chances for Fri look to be over the High
Plains with some model agreement in a cold front pushing through
the area for Sat into Sat night which will have storm chances tied
to it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Scattered strong to severe convection will develop along a nearly
stationary front sagging very slowly south into south central
Kansas and the Flint Hills late this afternoon and evening. The
front will move south a bit more as a weak cold front tonight
with north to northeast surface winds and lowering CIGS expected
later tonight with some MVFR category. Some elevated convection is
possible as well north of the front.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  65  82  64 /  60  60  30  30
Hutchinson      83  62  80  61 /  40  40  30  30
Newton          86  64  81  63 /  50  50  30  30
ElDorado        89  65  81  64 /  60  60  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   91  66  83  64 /  50  70  30  40
Russell         73  56  80  58 /  20  30  10  20
Great Bend      75  58  79  59 /  20  30  20  20
Salina          79  62  81  62 /  60  30  20  20
McPherson       82  62  80  61 /  50  30  30  30
Coffeyville     89  68  85  65 /  20  60  30  40
Chanute         88  67  83  64 /  40  60  30  30
Iola            87  67  83  64 /  40  60  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    89  67  84  65 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1042 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-151545-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1042 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon along and just south of a nearly stationary
front. This will most likely occur initially along or just south of
the highway 50 corridor, or generally along and just south of a
Marion to Hutchinson line. These storms will move east and also
develop southeast across south central Kansas and part of southeast
Kansas through the early evening. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail to golf ball size and damaging down-burst
winds to 65 mph. In addition, high rainfall rates will be likely
with the more intense storms this evening, which may lead to some
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Storms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday night and again
Friday through Saturday night. Strong storms will be possible with
any of this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation maybe needed between 4 pm and 10 pm, generally
south of highway 50.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
138 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSZ070-141915-
Greenwood KS-
138 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 215 PM CDT

* At 136 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over Madison...
  moving east at 20 mph.

Heavy rain is likely, which will cause street flooding of poor
drainage areas.  Small hail and gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Madison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3802 9620 3817 9624 3817 9596 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 255DEG 15KT 3811 9614

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
144 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSZ071-141915-
Woodson KS-
144 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 215 PM CDT

* At 143 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles north of Yates Center...
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Woodson
  County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3792 9589 3804 9591 3804 9564 3791 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 222DEG 21KT 3799 9579

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
217 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSZ071-142015-
Woodson KS-
217 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 315 PM CDT

* At 215 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near Le Roy, or
  10 miles northeast of Yates Center...moving east at 10 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Neosho Falls.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3790 9566 3804 9583 3804 9552 3793 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 255DEG 7KT 3801 9566

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSZ070-141945-
Greenwood KS-
221 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 245 PM CDT

* At 219 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 14 miles
  northwest of Eureka...moving northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
  Greenwood County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3799 9653 3805 9652 3809 9645 3809 9636
      3813 9636 3814 9634 3791 9631 3791 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 239DEG 21KT 3798 9646

HOWERTON