Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Early this afternoon, thunderstorms have begun to develop along
and south of a quasi-stationary front draped across the forecast
area. These storms have initially been in eastern Kansas, but as
convective inhibition continues to erode and enhanced convergence
ensues along the boundary, more storms are expected to initiate
this afternoon and evening. The primary threat area looks to be
south central and southeast Kansas, generally along and east of a
line from Kingman to Chase counties. This area is included in a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 1000pm this evening,
though it is possible that some showers and non-severe storms
could linger after this time frame initially along the Oklahoma
border and later in central KS. Main concerns with any severe
storms that develop will be large hail up to the size of ping-pong
balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall, with rain rates of near 2 inches per hour
already observed in a couple of cells that moved through Greenwood
and Woodson counties.

Current thinking is that the surface front will slide southward
tomorrow, which should push the development of severe storms
further south into central and western Oklahoma and northern
Texas, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in
southern Kansas. A strong storm or two will be possible, but
widespread severe weather is not expected by Tuesday afternoon due
to much more stable air over Kansas versus locations further
south.

Wednesday and Thursday become much more tricky as the front sinks
even further south and then lifts back north on Thursday as an
upper low continues to dwell over the Central Great Basin.
Overall, thinking is that we should see a shot at a few scattered
showers or thunderstorms, but exact timing and areal coverage is
dicey to say the least

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

By Friday, the upper low over the western CONUS is progged to
begin lifting northward through the weekend. Ample low level
moisture will continue to be advected into the area bringing
lingering chances of showers with occasional embedded thunder
off and on throughout the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures should remain above normal throughout the period
until at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Scattered strong to severe convection will develop along a nearly
stationary front sagging very slowly south into south central
Kansas and the Flint Hills late this afternoon and evening. The
front will move south a bit more as a weak cold front tonight
with north to northeast surface winds and lowering CIGS expected
later tonight with some MVFR category. Some elevated convection is
possible as well north of the front.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  82  64  82 /  60  30  40  40
Hutchinson      62  80  61  81 /  40  30  30  40
Newton          63  80  63  81 /  50  30  30  40
ElDorado        64  81  63  81 /  60  30  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   65  82  63  83 /  70  30  40  40
Russell         57  79  58  80 /  30  10  10  40
Great Bend      58  79  59  80 /  30  10  20  30
Salina          61  80  61  82 /  30  20  20  40
McPherson       61  80  61  81 /  30  30  20  40
Coffeyville     67  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  40
Chanute         66  82  64  83 /  60  30  30  40
Iola            66  81  63  82 /  60  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
354 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
354 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon along and just south of a nearly stationary
front. The most likely area for stronger and severe storms to
develop will be south central and southeast Kansas, where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 10pm this evening. The
strongest storms will be capable of large hail up to ping-pong ball
size and damaging down-burst winds up to 70 mph. In addition, high
rainfall rates will be likely with the more intense storms this
evening, which may lead to some localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Storms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday night and again
Friday through Saturday night. Strong storms will be possible with
any of this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 10pm across south central
and southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             NW IOLA                 37.93N 95.40W
05/14/2018  E0.50 INCH       ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             NW IOLA                 37.93N 95.40W
05/14/2018  E0.88 INCH       ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             3 E SOUTH HAVEN         37.05N 97.35W
05/14/2018  E0.75 INCH       SUMNER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             5 NW IOLA               37.98N 95.47W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             8 NNE YATES CENTER      37.98N 95.69W
05/14/2018  E0.88 INCH       WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
346 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSZ092-093-142145-
Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
346 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 445 PM CDT

* At 345 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Geuda Springs,
  or 11 miles west of Arkansas City...moving northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Winfield, Dexter, Geuda Springs, Winfield City Lake
  and Strother Field Airport.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3710 9737 3744 9688 3718 9665 3700 9714
      3700 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 239DEG 22KT 3707 9724

MCGUIRE