Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Wichita, KS

860 
WWUS53 KICT 142320
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSC017-073-142330-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-180514T2330Z/
Chase KS-Greenwood KS-
620 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHASE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3843 9636 3817 9636 3817 9607 3792 9628
      3790 9652 3808 9652 3809 9657 3844 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 231DEG 38KT 3824 9605 

$$

MCGUIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Early this afternoon, thunderstorms have begun to develop along
and south of a quasi-stationary front draped across the forecast
area. These storms have initially been in eastern Kansas, but as
convective inhibition continues to erode and enhanced convergence
ensues along the boundary, more storms are expected to initiate
this afternoon and evening. The primary threat area looks to be
south central and southeast Kansas, generally along and east of a
line from Kingman to Chase counties. This area is included in a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 1000pm this evening,
though it is possible that some showers and non-severe storms
could linger after this time frame initially along the Oklahoma
border and later in central KS. Main concerns with any severe
storms that develop will be large hail up to the size of ping-pong
balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall, with rain rates of near 2 inches per hour
already observed in a couple of cells that moved through Greenwood
and Woodson counties.

Current thinking is that the surface front will slide southward
tomorrow, which should push the development of severe storms
further south into central and western Oklahoma and northern
Texas, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in
southern Kansas. A strong storm or two will be possible, but
widespread severe weather is not expected by Tuesday afternoon due
to much more stable air over Kansas versus locations further
south.

Wednesday and Thursday become much more tricky as the front sinks
even further south and then lifts back north on Thursday as an
upper low continues to dwell over the Central Great Basin.
Overall, thinking is that we should see a shot at a few scattered
showers or thunderstorms, but exact timing and areal coverage is
dicey to say the least

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

By Friday, the upper low over the western CONUS is progged to
begin lifting northward through the weekend. Ample low level
moisture will continue to be advected into the area bringing
lingering chances of showers with occasional embedded thunder
off and on throughout the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures should remain above normal throughout the period
until at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Scattered strong to severe convection will develop along a nearly
stationary front sagging very slowly south into south central
Kansas and the Flint Hills late this afternoon and evening. The
front will move south a bit more as a weak cold front tonight
with north to northeast surface winds and lowering CIGS expected
later tonight with some MVFR category. Some elevated convection is
possible as well north of the front.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  82  64  82 /  60  30  40  40
Hutchinson      62  80  61  81 /  40  30  30  40
Newton          63  80  63  81 /  50  30  30  40
ElDorado        64  81  63  81 /  60  30  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   65  82  63  83 /  70  30  40  40
Russell         57  79  58  80 /  30  10  10  40
Great Bend      58  79  59  80 /  30  10  20  30
Salina          61  80  61  82 /  30  20  20  40
McPherson       61  80  61  81 /  30  30  20  40
Coffeyville     67  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  40
Chanute         66  82  64  83 /  60  30  30  40
Iola            66  81  63  82 /  60  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
354 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
354 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon along and just south of a nearly stationary
front. The most likely area for stronger and severe storms to
develop will be south central and southeast Kansas, where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 10pm this evening. The
strongest storms will be capable of large hail up to ping-pong ball
size and damaging down-burst winds up to 70 mph. In addition, high
rainfall rates will be likely with the more intense storms this
evening, which may lead to some localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Storms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday night and again
Friday through Saturday night. Strong storms will be possible with
any of this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 10pm across south central
and southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             EL DORADO               37.82N 96.86W
05/14/2018  E0.75 INCH       Butler             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
517 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             2 E EL DORADO           37.82N 96.82W
05/14/2018  E0.75 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
519 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HEAVY RAIN       IOLA                    37.93N 95.40W
05/14/2018  M4.40 INCH       Allen              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
520 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW IOLA               37.98N 95.47W
05/14/2018  M4.40 INCH       ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             4 SW OXFORD             37.23N 97.22W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
546 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             13 W WINFIELD           37.27N 97.20W
05/14/2018  E1.75 INCH       SUMNER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KED