Tornado Warning 7, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

At early afternoon, the surface low was located across the Ozarks
with an attendant warm front across the northern MS Delta to near
Jasper Alabama to near Macon Georgia. The low stratus has been quite
persistent this morning with ceilings between 800 and 1200 feet in
most areas. However, the latest G16 satellite trends show some
notable clearing with breaks across central Alabama and back into
Mississippi. Regional radar imagery shows several persistent clusters
across central/northern Alabama with mostly small hail reports so
far.

In the near term, expect the environment across northern Alabama and
southern Tennessee to continue to destabilize over the next several
hours. This will be aided by an increasing low to mid level jet
noted on satellite imagery entering northern Mississippi. The
sounding profiles from the high res/short term guidance would support
supercell structures with strong rotating updrafts between 22z and
03z and that is reflected well in the SPC outlooks. Without going
into too many more details, a potentially volatile setup will be in
place across the region this afternoon/evening. In fact, the latest
HRRR and CAM guidance maximize the updraft helicity across north
central and northeast Alabama at and just after sunset.

The cold front should shut down the severe weather threat from west
to east pretty quickly this evening. After a brief period of clearing
with the dry slot/jet max behind the front the deep upper trough will
swing across resulting in a stratus lower beneath an inversion.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A breezy and chilly day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday as the upper low rotates through. As the thermal trough
swings across late Tuesday/Tuesday night there may be enough
lingering moisture to allow a brief and spotty changeover to snow.
Not expecting much if any impacts given the light/brief nature of the
precipitation and the warm ground temperatures. Clearing but
continued cool weather anticipated on Wednesday as the upper low
lifts off the eastern seaboard.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

In the extended period, generally northwest flow will dominate
initially before northern stream energy breaks down the upper level
ridge. A cool and dry pattern on Thursday will give way to an
approaching weak warm front by Thursday night into Friday. There
appears to be some uncertainy with the available moisture with this
system and have leaned toward the lower end of guidance. As the flow
become more westerly and eventually southwesterly higher rain chances
and eventually thunderstorm chances will return to the area by the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Active weather anticipated at both terminal locations over the next
24 hours. Currently IFR ceilings were noted due to a large expanse of
stratus covering the region. This stratus will very slowly diminish
and lift through the early afternoon hours as a warm front lifts
northward. However, conditions will become more favorable for
convection/thunder ahead of an approaching cold front and have
included VCTS for this aftn/early evening at both locations. Also
included a TEMPO window for more significant convection and
associated wind gusts. Storms may be capable of producing damaging
hail but did not include in TAFs. The storms are anticipated to
swing east of the area after 03z with some clearing noted late
evening/overnight. However, stratus is once again expected to
overspread the area toward Tuesday morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
510 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-201315-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
510 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Severe thunderstorms will spread eastward across the Tennessee Valley
this evening ahead of an approaching storm system. All modes of
severe weather including very large hail up to baseball size,
damaging winds, and tornadoes can be expected. A strong tornado or
two will be possible.

The severe weather risk will diminish quickly late this evening into
tonight as the front pushes east of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
expected through this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
401 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ016-192145-
Cullman AL-
401 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Dodge City, or 13 miles southeast of Arley, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cullman, Hanceville, Good Hope, Holly Pond, Dodge City, Baileyton,
Garden City, Colony, Phelan and Walter.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3389 8701 3389 8705 3402 8711 3406 8711
      3430 8655 3430 8648 3426 8645 3425 8652
      3412 8660 3408 8670 3405 8668 3406 8671
      3403 8670 3395 8679 3396 8682 3393 8686
      3394 8688 3389 8693 3387 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 245DEG 34KT 3399 8700

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
511 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             9 N RED BAY             34.57N 88.13W
03/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FRANKLIN EMA REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NW
            FRANKLIN CO.

&&

TPB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
521 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ008-010-192300-
Marshall AL-De Kalb AL-
521 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MARSHALL AND DEKALB
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Geraldine, or 9 miles northeast of Albertville, moving east at 45
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Payne, Rainsville, Little River Canyon National Preserve,
Henagar, Crossville, Sylvania, Fyffe, Powell, Geraldine and Little
River Falls.

LAT...LON 3448 8558 3444 8558 3437 8563 3427 8613
      3444 8620 3448 8609 3446 8608 3449 8599
      3457 8587 3470 8555 3453 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 249DEG 39KT 3435 8608

Stumpf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
523 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             2 NNE RED BAY           34.46N 88.13W
03/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL NEAR RED BAY.

&&

TPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             10 NE VINA              34.48N 87.95W
03/19/2018  M2.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR BURNTOUT.

&&

TPB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
538 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ001-005-192330-
Lauderdale AL-Limestone AL-
538 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE AND
NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Florian, or 11 miles north of Florence, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Killen, Lexington, St. Florian, Underwood-Petersville,
Elkmont, Anderson, Lester, Green Hill and Good Springs.

LAT...LON 3499 8695 3489 8693 3483 8767 3500 8772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 258DEG 36KT 3495 8760

Stumpf