Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

At early afternoon, the surface low was located across the Ozarks
with an attendant warm front across the northern MS Delta to near
Jasper Alabama to near Macon Georgia. The low stratus has been quite
persistent this morning with ceilings between 800 and 1200 feet in
most areas. However, the latest G16 satellite trends show some
notable clearing with breaks across central Alabama and back into
Mississippi. Regional radar imagery shows several persistent clusters
across central/northern Alabama with mostly small hail reports so
far.

In the near term, expect the environment across northern Alabama and
southern Tennessee to continue to destabilize over the next several
hours. This will be aided by an increasing low to mid level jet
noted on satellite imagery entering northern Mississippi. The
sounding profiles from the high res/short term guidance would support
supercell structures with strong rotating updrafts between 22z and
03z and that is reflected well in the SPC outlooks. Without going
into too many more details, a potentially volatile setup will be in
place across the region this afternoon/evening. In fact, the latest
HRRR and CAM guidance maximize the updraft helicity across north
central and northeast Alabama at and just after sunset.

The cold front should shut down the severe weather threat from west
to east pretty quickly this evening. After a brief period of clearing
with the dry slot/jet max behind the front the deep upper trough will
swing across resulting in a stratus lower beneath an inversion.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A breezy and chilly day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday as the upper low rotates through. As the thermal trough
swings across late Tuesday/Tuesday night there may be enough
lingering moisture to allow a brief and spotty changeover to snow.
Not expecting much if any impacts given the light/brief nature of the
precipitation and the warm ground temperatures. Clearing but
continued cool weather anticipated on Wednesday as the upper low
lifts off the eastern seaboard.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

In the extended period, generally northwest flow will dominate
initially before northern stream energy breaks down the upper level
ridge. A cool and dry pattern on Thursday will give way to an
approaching weak warm front by Thursday night into Friday. There
appears to be some uncertainy with the available moisture with this
system and have leaned toward the lower end of guidance. As the flow
become more westerly and eventually southwesterly higher rain chances
and eventually thunderstorm chances will return to the area by the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Active weather anticipated at both terminal locations over the next
24 hours. Currently IFR ceilings were noted due to a large expanse of
stratus covering the region. This stratus will very slowly diminish
and lift through the early afternoon hours as a warm front lifts
northward. However, conditions will become more favorable for
convection/thunder ahead of an approaching cold front and have
included VCTS for this aftn/early evening at both locations. Also
included a TEMPO window for more significant convection and
associated wind gusts. Storms may be capable of producing damaging
hail but did not include in TAFs. The storms are anticipated to
swing east of the area after 03z with some clearing noted late
evening/overnight. However, stratus is once again expected to
overspread the area toward Tuesday morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1159 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-200800-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
1159 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and spread eastward
ahead of an approaching storm system. Large hail up to baseball
size, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes across are expected for
all areas in North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. A strong
tornado or two will be possible.

The severe weather risk will diminish quickly late this evening into
tonight as the front pushes east of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel will
be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1223 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ001-002-191800-
Lauderdale AL-Colbert AL-
1223 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE AND
WESTERN COLBERT COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Midway, or near Iuka, moving east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Red Rock, Malone, Posey Loop, Mynot, Pride Landing, Mt
Hester, Margerum, Maud and Allsboro.

LAT...LON 3482 8810 3491 8783 3466 8772 3463 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 250DEG 38KT 3471 8819

73

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1258 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ001>003-191845-
Lauderdale AL-Franklin AL-Colbert AL-
1258 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE...
COLBERT AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tishomingo State Park, moving east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, Tuscumbia, Littleville, Leighton,
St. Florian, Posey Loop, Pogo and Northwest Alabama Regional Airport.

LAT...LON 3468 8812 3488 8757 3465 8745 3465 8748
      3463 8748 3462 8750 3452 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 249DEG 37KT 3462 8808

73

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
221 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ005-006-192000-
Madison AL-Limestone AL-
221 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND CENTRAL
LIMESTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Athens, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Huntsville, Madison, Athens, Harvest, Tanner, Elkmont,
Cartwright, French Mill, Coxey and Elkwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike several miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8661 3470 8713 3472 8713 3475 8718
      3476 8722 3476 8726 3478 8728 3481 8722
      3488 8721 3499 8674 3499 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 256DEG 35KT 3479 8710

AMP