Tornado Warning 10, NWS Huntsville, AL

616 
WWUS54 KHUN 192339
SVSHUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
639 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALC083-089-TNC103-200000-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180320T0000Z/
Madison AL-Limestone AL-Lincoln TN-
639 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND SOUTHWESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES...
        
At 637 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Ardmore, or 12 miles north of Athens, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud along Interstate 
         65 near the Alabama and Tennessee state line. At 620 PM 
         trees were reported down in Lester in Limestone County. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Ardmore around 640 PM CDT. 
  Hazel Green around 700 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Elkwood, Holland Gin, Blanche, Fisk and Taft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8661 3491 8655 3491 8697 3499 8698
      3499 8684 3506 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 266DEG 38KT 3497 8689 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Stumpf

126 
WWUS54 KHUN 192342
SVSHUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
642 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALC083-089-TNC103-200000-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180320T0000Z/
Madison AL-Limestone AL-Lincoln TN-
642 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND SOUTHWESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES...
    
At 641 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Ardmore, or 14
miles northeast of Athens, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado south of Ardmore. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This tornado will be near...
  Hazel Green around 700 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Blanche, Fisk, Taft, Elkwood and Holland Gin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8661 3491 8655 3491 8690 3499 8691
      3499 8684 3506 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 266DEG 38KT 3497 8683 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Stumpf

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Severe weather episode continues to unfold across northern Alabama
late this afternoon.

At 6 PM...a 997 millibar surface low was situated near the TN River
in western TN. It's interesting to note that this feature is a bit
deeper and slightly further south than the synoptic models progged 24
hours ago. The current high res guidance now deepens this low and
actually slides it east southeast across the northern portions of the
HUN CWA over the next several hours.

Convection so far has been quite robust with HP supercellular
structures and attendant circulations/rotational structures. Reports
so far have ranged from very high end hail to some structural damage
in the Russellville area. The last SPC mesoanalysis indicates 0-1 km
SRH 400-600 m2/s2 along and east from Fayetteville to Moulton and
mixed layer CAPE between 750 and 1500 j/kg. This is also supported by
recent soundings sampling the environment.

Low level winds remain backed across much of the area due to the
location/deepening of the surface low and the proximity of the warm
frontal structure. This, coupled with the strengthening mid level
jet placed the central and eastern sections of the HUN CWA in an
unfortunate sweet spot through mid evening. There is a slightly more
stable boundary layer in far northeast Alabama but that may be
balanced to some extent by the intensifying shear and orographic
impacts. Storm structures will likely remain HP to hybrid supercell
in nature leading to rain wrapped rotation signatures.

Winds will eventually shift to the west/southwest as the drier
air/front punches in. That will shut off the threat from west to
east.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

At early afternoon, the surface low was located across the Ozarks
with an attendant warm front across the northern MS Delta to near
Jasper Alabama to near Macon Georgia. The low stratus has been quite
persistent this morning with ceilings between 800 and 1200 feet in
most areas. However, the latest G16 satellite trends show some
notable clearing with breaks across central Alabama and back into
Mississippi. Regional radar imagery shows several persistent clusters
across central/northern Alabama with mostly small hail reports so
far.

In the near term, expect the environment across northern Alabama and
southern Tennessee to continue to destabilize over the next several
hours. This will be aided by an increasing low to mid level jet
noted on satellite imagery entering northern Mississippi. The
sounding profiles from the high res/short term guidance would support
supercell structures with strong rotating updrafts between 22z and
03z and that is reflected well in the SPC outlooks. Without going
into too many more details, a potentially volatile setup will be in
place across the region this afternoon/evening. In fact, the latest
HRRR and CAM guidance maximize the updraft helicity across north
central and northeast Alabama at and just after sunset.

The cold front should shut down the severe weather threat from west
to east pretty quickly this evening. After a brief period of clearing
with the dry slot/jet max behind the front the deep upper trough will
swing across resulting in a stratus lower beneath an inversion.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A breezy and chilly day will be in store for the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday as the upper low rotates through. As the thermal trough
swings across late Tuesday/Tuesday night there may be enough
lingering moisture to allow a brief and spotty changeover to snow.
Not expecting much if any impacts given the light/brief nature of the
precipitation and the warm ground temperatures. Clearing but
continued cool weather anticipated on Wednesday as the upper low
lifts off the eastern seaboard.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

In the extended period, generally northwest flow will dominate
initially before northern stream energy breaks down the upper level
ridge. A cool and dry pattern on Thursday will give way to an
approaching weak warm front by Thursday night into Friday. There
appears to be some uncertainty with the available moisture with this
system and have leaned toward the lower end of guidance. As the flow
become more westerly and eventually southwesterly higher rain
chances and eventually thunderstorm chances will return to the area
by the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Active weather anticipated at both terminal locations over the next
24 hours. Currently IFR ceilings were noted due to a large expanse of
stratus covering the region. This stratus will very slowly diminish
and lift through the early afternoon hours as a warm front lifts
northward. However, conditions will become more favorable for
convection/thunder ahead of an approaching cold front and have
included VCTS for this aftn/early evening at both locations. Also
included a TEMPO window for more significant convection and
associated wind gusts. Storms may be capable of producing damaging
hail but did not include in TAFs. The storms are anticipated to
swing east of the area after 03z with some clearing noted late
evening/overnight. However, stratus is once again expected to
overspread the area toward Tuesday morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
510 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-201315-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
510 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Severe thunderstorms will spread eastward across the Tennessee Valley
this evening ahead of an approaching storm system. All modes of
severe weather including very large hail up to baseball size,
damaging winds, and tornadoes can be expected. A strong tornado or
two will be possible.

The severe weather risk will diminish quickly late this evening into
tonight as the front pushes east of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
expected through this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSSELLVILLE            34.50N 87.72W
03/19/2018                   FRANKLIN           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ACROSS EAST LAWRENCE STREET IN
            RUSSELLVILLE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E RUSSELLVILLE        34.51N 87.72W
03/19/2018                   FRANKLIN           AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 43.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             2 NNW MOULTON           34.52N 87.29W
03/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE CORNER OF AL 33 AND
            AL 157.

&&

BCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE RUSSELLVILLE      34.50N 87.72W
03/19/2018                   FRANKLIN           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VISIBLE DAMAGE TO A METAL BUILDING AND
            WAFFLE HOUSE SIGN IN RUSSELLVILLE ALONG AL
            33. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

BCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE LEXINGTON         35.00N 87.30W
03/19/2018                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 89 AT THE TENNESSEE
            STATE LINE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
624 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             1 N MOULTON             34.49N 87.28W
03/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       LAWRENCE           AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT THE CORNER OF AL 157
            AND AL 24.

&&