Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbances will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. A weak cold front will then approach from the northwest
tonight into Thursday and stall across the region through late week.
Seasonably warm temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. An
upper level disturbance will move across the area on Monday leading
to a drier day on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 5:15pm EDT Wednesday:  Are is currently in the midsts of
multiple rounds of thunderstorms with some severe wind and large
hail being reported.  Thunderstorms which initiated from higher
terrain earlier this afternoon are now moving towards the I77
corridor, with a second round currently crossing over the mountains
from Tennessee.  Thunder is expected to continue through the evening
until midnight or so when diurnal cooling finally puts an end to it

Thursday, a northern stream upper trough axis will slide east of the
area, while a weak southern stream trough drifts across the Ozark
Plateau. A slight bit of upper ridge atop the CWFA coupled with
slightly lower sfc dewpts should result in less instability than
we've had the last couple days. The latest CAMs show mainly isolated
to scattered aftn convection, favoring the SW half of the CWFA.
Highs will generally be a couple degrees cooler than today across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday: Broad upper troughing will remain in place
across much of the East through the period. Weak frontal zone/
surface trough will provide a low level focus for diurnal showers
and storms, with perhaps slightly higher than typical coverage
anticipated both Fri and Sat afternoons, esp across roughly the
southern 2/3 of the area, as more stable air will try to work its
way into northern areas in the wake of the boundary. Temps will
generally be right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: A mid level trough will be a persistent
feature across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. A surface
boundary will meander across the area each day essentially being the
dividing line between deeper moisture to the east and somewhat drier
air to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
both Sunday and Monday in all parts of the forecast area but as the
mid level trough shifts east on Tuesday, most shower activity should
be limited to west of the continental divide.

Mid level ridging will build into the region for next Wednesday
leading to more typical mid August Pops.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern for the 18z TAFs will be
timing of convection impacts. The latest guidance seems a bit too
slow on timing of convective initiation and so the latest TAFs keep
VCTS and TEMPOs a couple hours earlier than the consensus. This is
still the typical peak-heating time frame (18-24z). From there, a
light westerly flow should push everything off to the east this
evening, but with lingering mid clouds and some showers in the NC
mountains into the overnight. A weak front of sorts will push thru
by daybreak, shifting winds around out of the WNW/NW and allowing
slightly drier air into the region. This should result in a little
less storm coverage on Thursday. Fog will likely develop again
overnight in the mountain valleys, but maybe not as much in the
French Broad Valley due to a more persistent up-valley NW wind. The
other sites should be VFR, except in TSRA.

Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-090845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern
foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop across the mountains by early afternoon
and increase in coverage before racing east through early evening.
Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud-
to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated
flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers.
In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-090845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from the west this
afternoon and then race eastward across the piedmont through the
evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by
multiple showers or thunderstorms. In addition, a few of the
thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

In addition, Heat Index values should reach 95 to 100 degrees this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRON STATION            35.44N 81.16W
08/08/2018                   LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

             TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREES DOWN NEAR IRON STATION

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ501-502-504-082230-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
601 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CALDWELL AND CENTRAL
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 601 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles north of Lenoir to 6 miles north of
Morganton, and moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Sawmills, Gamewell, Hudson, Cajah's Mountain, Cedar Rock,
Lake Rhodhiss, Granite Falls, Kings Creek and Collettsville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8133 3592 8134 3591 8134 3577 8148
      3586 8178 3589 8173 3592 8175 3606 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 283DEG 21KT 3600 8150 3583 8167

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW HIGH SHOALS       35.37N 81.28W
08/08/2018                   GASTON             NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED LARGE HICKORY TREE DOWN ALONG MAUNEY RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ064-065-082245-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-
609 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Brevard, or 5 miles southwest of Dupont State Forest,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Dupont State Forest, Crab Creek, Cedar Mountain and Little River In
Transylvania County.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3527 8252 3517 8249 3516 8250 3517 8250
      3516 8253 3516 8255 3515 8257 3514 8260
      3514 8261 3513 8263 3512 8272 3520 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 254DEG 15KT 3516 8270

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
612 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ057-082230-
Rowan NC-
612 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Salisbury, or 5 miles south of High Rock Lake,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gold Hill and High Rock Lake.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8034 3564 8039 3567 8031 3564 8029
      3563 8027 3561 8024 3559 8023 3559 8021
      3555 8021 3554 8020 3553 8020 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 254DEG 13KT 3558 8028

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
621 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ018-082245-
Stephens GA-
621 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Toccoa, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Eastanolee and Boydville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3451 8345 3460 8328 3448 8322 3447 8327
      3447 8338 3446 8339 3447 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 245DEG 11KT 3450 8336

LANE