Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbances will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. A weak cold front will then approach from the northwest
tonight into Thursday and stall across the region through late week.
Seasonably warm temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. An
upper level disturbance will move across the area on Monday leading
to a drier day on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 5:15pm EDT Wednesday:  Are is currently in the midsts of
multiple rounds of thunderstorms with some severe wind and large
hail being reported.  Thunderstorms which initiated from higher
terrain earlier this afternoon are now moving towards the I77
corridor, with a second round currently crossing over the mountains
from Tennessee.  Thunder is expected to continue through the evening
until midnight or so when diurnal cooling finally puts an end to it

Thursday, a northern stream upper trough axis will slide east of the
area, while a weak southern stream trough drifts across the Ozark
Plateau. A slight bit of upper ridge atop the CWFA coupled with
slightly lower sfc dewpts should result in less instability than
we've had the last couple days. The latest CAMs show mainly isolated
to scattered aftn convection, favoring the SW half of the CWFA.
Highs will generally be a couple degrees cooler than today across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday: Broad upper troughing will remain in place
across much of the East through the period. Weak frontal zone/
surface trough will provide a low level focus for diurnal showers
and storms, with perhaps slightly higher than typical coverage
anticipated both Fri and Sat afternoons, esp across roughly the
southern 2/3 of the area, as more stable air will try to work its
way into northern areas in the wake of the boundary. Temps will
generally be right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: A mid level trough will be a persistent
feature across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. A surface
boundary will meander across the area each day essentially being the
dividing line between deeper moisture to the east and somewhat drier
air to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
both Sunday and Monday in all parts of the forecast area but as the
mid level trough shifts east on Tuesday, most shower activity should
be limited to west of the continental divide.

Mid level ridging will build into the region for next Wednesday
leading to more typical mid August Pops.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern for the 18z TAFs will be
timing of convection impacts. The latest guidance seems a bit too
slow on timing of convective initiation and so the latest TAFs keep
VCTS and TEMPOs a couple hours earlier than the consensus. This is
still the typical peak-heating time frame (18-24z). From there, a
light westerly flow should push everything off to the east this
evening, but with lingering mid clouds and some showers in the NC
mountains into the overnight. A weak front of sorts will push thru
by daybreak, shifting winds around out of the WNW/NW and allowing
slightly drier air into the region. This should result in a little
less storm coverage on Thursday. Fog will likely develop again
overnight in the mountain valleys, but maybe not as much in the
French Broad Valley due to a more persistent up-valley NW wind. The
other sites should be VFR, except in TSRA.

Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-090845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern
foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop across the mountains by early afternoon
and increase in coverage before racing east through early evening.
Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud-
to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated
flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers.
In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-090845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from the west this
afternoon and then race eastward across the piedmont through the
evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by
multiple showers or thunderstorms. In addition, a few of the
thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

In addition, Heat Index values should reach 95 to 100 degrees this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

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