Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbances will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. A weak cold front will then approach from the northwest
tonight into Thursday and stall across the region through late week.
Seasonably warm temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. An
upper level disturbance will move across the area on Monday leading
to a drier day on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM...Fairly solid coverage of convection can be seen
across eastern KY/TN attm, and is starting to look quasi-organized
into multi-cell clusters. Meanwhile, scattered convection is
starting to develop across the high terrain of the CWFA ahead of the
main activity. All this to say that we should see likely to
categorical coverage in the mountains thru the aftn hours. Deep-
layer westerly steering flow should take activity into the Piedmont,
highest across the NC zones. Effective bulk shear is still less than
20 kts on the mesoanalysis page, but SBCAPE is 3000-3500+ J/kg. So
an uptick in severe threat look on tap. There will also be a non-
zero risk of excessive rainfall, with PWATs slightly above normal in
the 1.5-1.75" range.

Convection should largely exit east of the area this evening, but
lingering showers will be possible along the TN border thru much of
the night, thanks to NWLY upslope flow. A weak front will slip in
from the NW. It is more of a wind-shift line than a front, but will
will allow slightly drier air to work into the area. Lows tonight
will be slightly above normal.

Thursday, a northern stream upper trough axis will slide east of the
area, while a weak southern stream trough drifts across the Ozark
Plateau. A slight bit of upper ridge atop the CWFA coupled with
slightly lower sfc dewpts should result in less instability than
we've had the last couple days. The latest CAMs show mainly isolated
to scattered aftn convection, favoring the SW half of the CWFA.
Highs will generally be a couple degrees cooler than today across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday: Broad upper troughing will remain in place
across much of the East through the period. Weak frontal zone/
surface trough will provide a low level focus for diurnal showers
and storms, with perhaps slightly higher than typical coverage
anticipated both Fri and Sat afternoons, esp across roughly the
southern 2/3 of the area, as more stable air will try to work its
way into northern areas in the wake of the boundary. Temps will
generally be right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: A mid level trough will be a persistent
feature across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. A surface
boundary will meander across the area each day essentially being the
dividing line between deeper moisture to the east and somewhat drier
air to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
both Sunday and Monday in all parts of the forecast area but as the
mid level trough shifts east on Tuesday, most shower activity should
be limited to west of the continental divide.

Mid level ridging will build into the region for next Wednesday
leading to more typical mid August Pops.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern for the 18z TAFs will be
timing of convection impacts. The latest guidance seems a bit too
slow on timing of convective initiation and so the latest TAFs keep
VCTS and TEMPOs a couple hours earlier than the consensus. This is
still the typical peak-heating time frame (18-24z). From there, a
light westerly flow should push everything off to the east this
evening, but with lingering mid clouds and some showers in the NC
mountains into the overnight. A weak front of sorts will push thru
by daybreak, shifting winds around out of the WNW/NW and allowing
slightly drier air into the region. This should result in a little
less storm coverage on Thursday. Fog will likely develop again
overnight in the mountain valleys, but maybe not as much in the
French Broad Valley due to a more persistent up-valley NW wind. The
other sites should be VFR, except in TSRA.

Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-090845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern
foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop across the mountains by early afternoon
and increase in coverage before racing east through early evening.
Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud-
to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated
flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers.
In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-090845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from the west this
afternoon and then race eastward across the piedmont through the
evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by
multiple showers or thunderstorms. In addition, a few of the
thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

In addition, Heat Index values should reach 95 to 100 degrees this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW NEWTON            35.65N 81.28W
08/08/2018                   CATAWBA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

             TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREES DOWN ON HARDWOOD CIRCLE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
506 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ062-082130-
Macon NC-
506 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MACON COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 506 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Andrews to 4 miles northeast of Hiawassee, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Wayah Bald, Otto, Rainbow Springs and Cullasaja.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3525 8330 3504 8333 3502 8352 3504 8354
      3504 8356 3507 8357 3509 8359 3511 8362
      3513 8362 3512 8364 3518 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 253DEG 27KT 3513 8369 3501 8372

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
508 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ033-050-503-505-082145-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-Avery NC-
508 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...EAST
CENTRAL MITCHELL...SOUTHWESTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Spruce Pine, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Linville Falls, B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Ingalls,
Altamont, Jonas Ridge and Ashford.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3594 8209 3601 8205 3600 8186 3587 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 285DEG 14KT 3598 8207

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW GOWENSVILLE        35.07N 82.28W
08/08/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

             MEDIA REPORTED TREES DOWN ON PINK DILL MILL ROAD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW GOWENSVILLE        35.07N 82.28W
08/08/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

             MEDIA REPORTED TREES DOWN ON PINK DILL MILL ROAD

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ052-059-082145-
Haywood NC-Northern Jackson NC-
513 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Waynesville, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Balsam, Black Balsam Area and Sunburst.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3543 8310 3545 8287 3531 8290 3529 8292
      3535 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 285DEG 13KT 3538 8304

LANE