Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbances will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. A weak cold front will then approach from the northwest
tonight into Thursday and stall across the region through late week.
Seasonably warm temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. An
upper level disturbance will move across the area on Monday leading
to a drier day on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM...Fairly solid coverage of convection can be seen
across eastern KY/TN attm, and is starting to look quasi-organized
into multi-cell clusters. Meanwhile, scattered convection is
starting to develop across the high terrain of the CWFA ahead of the
main activity. All this to say that we should see likely to
categorical coverage in the mountains thru the aftn hours. Deep-
layer westerly steering flow should take activity into the Piedmont,
highest across the NC zones. Effective bulk shear is still less than
20 kts on the mesoanalysis page, but SBCAPE is 3000-3500+ J/kg. So
an uptick in severe threat look on tap. There will also be a non-
zero risk of excessive rainfall, with PWATs slightly above normal in
the 1.5-1.75" range.

Convection should largely exit east of the area this evening, but
lingering showers will be possible along the TN border thru much of
the night, thanks to NWLY upslope flow. A weak front will slip in
from the NW. It is more of a wind-shift line than a front, but will
will allow slightly drier air to work into the area. Lows tonight
will be slightly above normal.

Thursday, a northern stream upper trough axis will slide east of the
area, while a weak southern stream trough drifts across the Ozark
Plateau. A slight bit of upper ridge atop the CWFA coupled with
slightly lower sfc dewpts should result in less instability than
we've had the last couple days. The latest CAMs show mainly isolated
to scattered aftn convection, favoring the SW half of the CWFA.
Highs will generally be a couple degrees cooler than today across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday: Broad upper troughing will remain in place
across much of the East through the period. Weak frontal zone/
surface trough will provide a low level focus for diurnal showers
and storms, with perhaps slightly higher than typical coverage
anticipated both Fri and Sat afternoons, esp across roughly the
southern 2/3 of the area, as more stable air will try to work its
way into northern areas in the wake of the boundary. Temps will
generally be right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: A mid level trough will be a persistent
feature across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. A surface
boundary will meander across the area each day essentially being the
dividing line between deeper moisture to the east and somewhat drier
air to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
both Sunday and Monday in all parts of the forecast area but as the
mid level trough shifts east on Tuesday, most shower activity should
be limited to west of the continental divide.

Mid level ridging will build into the region for next Wednesday
leading to more typical mid August Pops.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern for the 18z TAFs will be
timing of convection impacts. The latest guidance seems a bit too
slow on timing of convective initiation and so the latest TAFs keep
VCTS and TEMPOs a couple hours earlier than the consensus. This is
still the typical peak-heating time frame (18-24z). From there, a
light westerly flow should push everything off to the east this
evening, but with lingering mid clouds and some showers in the NC
mountains into the overnight. A weak front of sorts will push thru
by daybreak, shifting winds around out of the WNW/NW and allowing
slightly drier air into the region. This should result in a little
less storm coverage on Thursday. Fog will likely develop again
overnight in the mountain valleys, but maybe not as much in the
French Broad Valley due to a more persistent up-valley NW wind. The
other sites should be VFR, except in TSRA.

Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-090845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern
foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop across the mountains by early afternoon
and increase in coverage before racing east through early evening.
Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud-
to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated
flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers.
In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-090845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from the west this
afternoon and then race eastward across the piedmont through the
evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by
multiple showers or thunderstorms. In addition, a few of the
thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

In addition, Heat Index values should reach 95 to 100 degrees this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.

Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
359 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ048-082045-
Madison NC-
359 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Newport, or 7 miles northwest of Smoky Mountains-Big
Creek, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hot Springs, Allenstand and Wolf Ridge.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3596 8260 3595 8256
      3598 8250 3595 8248 3581 8296 3584 8292
      3587 8292 3588 8290 3593 8292 3593 8290
      3594 8290 3595 8285 3592 8282 3597 8278
      3600 8278 3606 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 246DEG 38KT 3584 8317

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE LAKEMONT          34.74N 83.39W
08/08/2018                   RABUN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN ALONG GEORGIA HWY
            15

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ053-065-068-505>510-082100-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Cleveland NC-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Eastern Polk NC-
401 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
RUTHERFORD...NORTHERN HENDERSON...CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles southwest of Marion to 15 miles north of
Columbus to near Hendersonville, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Rutherfordton, Columbus, Forest City, Mills River,
Spindale, Mountain Home, Casar, Chimney Rock State Park and Bat Cave.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8183 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8179
      3558 8169 3556 8166 3557 8160 3556 8158
      3556 8154 3536 8186 3524 8223 3538 8266
      3547 8236 3563 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 284DEG 17KT 3558 8208 3546 8231 3539 8252

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTRAL                 34.72N 82.78W
08/08/2018                   PICKENS            SC   911 CALL CENTER

             911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN IN CENTRAL

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

SCZ006>008-012-013-082100-
Cherokee SC-Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
420 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...CHEROKEE AND CENTRAL UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles northwest of Spartanburg to near
Reidville and Woodruff, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Union, Boiling Springs SC, Woodruff, Duncan,
Lyman, Pacolet, Cowpens and Wellford.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8222 3509 8209 3513 8143 3505 8146
      3505 8147 3503 8149 3501 8148 3499 8148
      3457 8161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 275DEG 26KT 3503 8199 3480 8208

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
421 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

NCZ035-501-502-082045-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
421 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ALEXANDER AND
NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Boomer, or near Elkville, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kings Creek and Ellendale.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3609 8147 3609 8145 3607 8144 3607 8141
      3605 8139 3604 8140 3604 8137 3600 8133
      3603 8127 3603 8124 3591 8129 3601 8152
      3610 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 288DEG 15KT 3602 8142

LANE