Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
453 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will impact the area again late this afternoon and
this evening with damaging winds possible. A weak cold front will
drop through the forecast area tonight, bringing more seasonable
temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough will increase chances for
showers and storms Wednesday, with hot weather returning to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 pm: PoPs have been raised across the entire area through
the early evening hours as all of the convection allowing models
consolidate the line developing over the southern Appalachians and
run it east through the piedmont. Have also added severe T mention
to the forecast with widespread damaging winds now expected. Will
likely start to clear the Watch from the west in the next hour or
so.

Otherwise, the sagging frontal boundary becomes a wedge front by
Tuesday morning, bringing somewhat cooler air with low overcast
across the region. Despite cooler and cloudy conditions on Tuesday
due to wedge, enough instability developes in the afternoon for some
thunderstorms, though with less coverage and intensity than ones
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 pm Monday: Cyclonic mid/upper tropospheric flow will
quickly return to the forecast area early in the short term, before
the upper trough axis shifts to the East Coast late in the period.
Surface boundary will be sliding south and west across the area at
the start of the period, with short term model guidance depicting
strong low level convergence along the boundary, along with not-too-
shabby warm sector instability (and it is a June front, so
instability extends for at least a couple of hundred miles to the
"cool" side of the boundary).  Meanwhile, with strong instability
still likely to develop Tue pm across the TN Valley, clusters of
convection will have plenty of opportunity to end up in our forecast
area through at least the first half or so of the period.
Slow-moving back door fronts this time of year are red flags for
potential flash flooding, as they provide ample opportunity for
training and/or anchored cells, and in fact the latest runs of the
GFS and NAM are signaling this potential in producing blobs of heavy
rainfall across the southern half of the area Tue evening.

Surface boundary will wash out and the air mass modify rather
quickly by mid-week, with strong instability likely developing
across the area Wed afternoon/evening, as the trough axis and
attendant front/surface trough are progressing across the TN Valley
and southern Appalachians. Another round of at least scattered
convection is therefore expected during this time, supporting 40-60
pops across the area. Increasing height gradient associated with
approaching trough will yield modest deep-layer shear, which should
be sufficient to allow some degree of convective organization posing
an enhanced threat of locally damaging winds. Increasing
anticyclonic flow aloft, along with lower theta-E area spilling into
the area should allow for a significant draw down in convective
activity Thu afternoon, although small chances for terrain-
influenced diurnal convection will still exist. Temps will be near
normal to begin the period, but return to several degrees above
climo by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday: Mid level high pressure will be centered
over the eastern states for the extended period leading to continued
hot conditions with mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. The hottest day of this period looks to be Friday
when the mid level high is closest overhead. The combination of the
actual temperature and the humidity will lead to peak heat indices
near 105 in the Piedmont region. As the high moves off to the
northeast of the area Saturday through next Monday, it will be
slightly less hot with peak heat indices 100 to 105 outside the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunderstorms with outflows approaching
severe limits are expected all areas this afternoon through the
evening as a complex of storms currently across the NC mountains
propagates east/southeastward. Weak front currently oriented
northwest-southeast across CLT may help provide additional focus at
times, but front is diffuse, and severe storms are possible all
areas. Thunder moves west to east across the area, exiting after 2
or 3Z.  Gradual southwest movement of front will continue to veer
winds at KCLT, though weakness of pressure gradient will keep winds
light to variable many locations.  Main trough associated with front
moves east, allowing a cold-air-damming surface high to bring
northeasterly winds and low-overcast into the area by early Tuesday
morning at KCLT, and other locations later. Some light rain/drizzle
is expected behind the wedge front; and by Tuesday afternoon, models
develop some CAPE again, despite CAD conditions, giving some chance
for thunderstorms.

Outlook: Through midweek, a slow-moving or stalled front will
enhance coverage of SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon/evening.
Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   64%     High  85%
KGSP       High 100%     Med   70%     Med   66%     High  89%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   76%     Med   63%     High  98%
KHKY       High 100%     High  94%     Med   60%     High  81%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   70%     High  87%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Low   54%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HG/WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
444 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-
262045-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
444 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, and the mountains, foothills, and northwest piedmont of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should relay any reports of damaging winds, large hail, or
tornadoes to the National Weather Service.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-262045-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
444 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Excessive heat possible.
..Friday...Excessive heat possible.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should relay any reports of damaging winds, large hail, or
tornadoes to the National Weather Service.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW DREXEL            35.83N 81.64W
06/25/2018                   BURKE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF NC 18 AND ANTIOCH RD.

&&

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
504 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

NCZ064-065-507>510-SCZ003-007-252130-
Greater Rutherford NC-Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Spartanburg SC-
504 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...POLK...NORTHERN GREENVILLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Columbus, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Rutherfordton, Columbus, Flat Rock, Landrum,
Slater-Marietta, Laurel Park, Tryon, Saluda and Tigerville.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3546 8225 3547 8224 3541 8188 3504 8228
      3501 8243 3504 8259 3506 8260 3507 8257
      3506 8272 3507 8278 3547 8241 3546 8237
      3548 8237 3549 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 298DEG 14KT 3535 8225

Carroll

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW TABLE ROCK         35.80N 81.86W
06/25/2018                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES
            DOWN IN WESTERN BURKE COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JMP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW MORGANTON         35.75N 81.70W
06/25/2018                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IN
            MORGANTON ALONG THE CATAWBA RIVER. SANFORD DRIVE IS
            CLOSED DUE TO DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
522 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE FERO              35.55N 81.97W
06/25/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT 251 LUCKY
            STRIKE DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JMP