Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms will impact the area again this afternoon
and evening with damaging winds possible. A weak cold front will
drop through the forecast area tonight, bringing more seasonable
temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough will increase chances for
showers and storms Wednesday, with hot weather returning to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Monday.  Round of thunderstorms, some possibly severe,
is just beginning this afternoon across the CWA.  SBCAPE is good
with afternoon heating, though MLCAPE is more moderate.  Windshear
is moderate as well, and activity is being assisted by propagation
of upstream system. Per CAMs, thunder is anticipated to continue
through the evening, with activity becoming focused more to the east
after 7pm and ending after 10pm.  Upper flow is weak and westerly,
but a shortwave has developed in association with MCS propagating
into the area.  As system passes by this evening, surface trough
moves further off shore and surface ridge becomes established with
high pressure building-up east of the Appalachians in a warm-season
wedge set-up.  Sagging frontal boundary becomes a wedge front
Tuesday morning, bringing somewhat cooler air with low overcast
across the region.  Despite cooler and cloudy conditions on Tuesday
due to wedge, enough instability developes in the afternoon for some
thunderstorms, though with less coverage and intensity than ones
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 pm Monday: Cyclonic mid/upper tropospheric flow will
quickly return to the forecast area early in the short term, before
the upper trough axis shifts to the East Coast late in the period.
Surface boundary will be sliding south and west across the area at
the start of the period, with short term model guidance depicting
strong low level convergence along the boundary, along with not-too-
shabby warm sector instability (and it is a June front, so
instability extends for at least a couple of hundred miles to the
"cool" side of the boundary).  Meanwhile, with strong instability
still likely to develop Tue pm across the TN Valley, clusters of
convection will have plenty of opportunity to end up in our forecast
area through at least the first half or so of the period.
Slow-moving back door fronts this time of year are red flags for
potential flash flooding, as they provide ample opportunity for
training and/or anchored cells, and in fact the latest runs of the
GFS and NAM are signaling this potential in producing blobs of heavy
rainfall across the southern half of the area Tue evening.

Surface boundary will wash out and the air mass modify rather
quickly by mid-week, with strong instability likely developing
across the area Wed afternoon/evening, as the trough axis and
attendant front/surface trough are progressing across the TN Valley
and southern Appalachians. Another round of at least scattered
convection is therefore expected during this time, supporting 40-60
pops across the area. Increasing height gradient associated with
approaching trough will yield modest deep-layer shear, which should
be sufficient to allow some degree of convective organization posing
an enhanced threat of locally damaging winds. Increasing
anticyclonic flow aloft, along with lower theta-E area spilling into
the area should allow for a significant draw down in convective
activity Thu afternoon, although small chances for terrain-
influenced diurnal convection will still exist. Temps will be near
normal to begin the period, but return to several degrees above
climo by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday: Mid level high pressure will be centered
over the eastern states for the extended period leading to continued
hot conditions with mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. The hottest day of this period looks to be Friday
when the mid level high is closest overhead. The combination of the
actual temperature and the humidity will lead to peak heat indices
near 105 in the Piedmont region. As the high moves off to the
northeast of the area Saturday through next Monday, it will be
slightly less hot with peak heat indices 100 to 105 outside the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunderstorms with outflows approaching
severe limits are expected all areas this afternoon through the
evening as a complex of storms currently across KY/TN/AL/GA
propagates southeastward.  Weak front currently oriented northwest-
southeast across CLT may help provide additional focus at times, but
front is diffuse, and severe storms are possible all areas.  Thunder
moves west to east across the area, exiting after 2 or 3Z.  Gradual
southwest movement of front will continue to veer winds at KCLT,
though weakness of pressure gradient will keep winds light to
variable many locations.  Main trough associated with front moves
east, allowing a cold-air-damming surface high to bring
northeasterly winds and low-overcast into the area by early Tuesday
morning at KCLT, and other locations later.  Some light rain/drizzle
is expected behind the wedge front; and by Tuesday afternoon, models
develop some CAPE again, despite CAD conditions, giving some chance
for thunderstorms.

Outlook: Through midweek, a slow-moving or stalled front will
enhance coverage of SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon/evening.
Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   63%     High  85%
KGSP       High 100%     High  85%     Med   63%     High  80%
KAVL       High 100%     High  90%     Med   63%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High  99%     Low   56%     Med   77%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   61%     High  84%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Med   69%     High  92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-072-
501>510-261715-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and
large hail will also be possible. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ001>014-019-261715-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and
large hail will also be possible. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Excessive heat possible.
..Thursday...Excessive heat possible.
..Friday...Excessive heat possible.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROBBINSVILLE            35.32N 83.81W
06/25/2018                   GRAHAM             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY REPORTS A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
345 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCZ014-252015-
Chester SC-
345 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Winnsboro, or 4 miles west of Great Falls, moving
east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Richburg and Fishing Creek Reservoir.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3465 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089
      3460 8089 3456 8087 3454 8088 3456 8106
      3473 8103 3474 8087 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 283DEG 37KT 3456 8098

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-252015-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-Avery NC-
349 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCDOWELL...MITCHELL...
AVERY...NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...YANCEY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles northwest of Newland to 11 miles south of
Burnsville, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Newland, Banner Elk, Elk Park, Bakersville,
Beech Mountain In Avery County, Crossnore, Sugar Mountain and Seven
Devils.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3627 8189 3621 8190 3619 8186 3616 8183
      3611 8181 3612 8169 3573 8200 3571 8203
      3564 8207 3570 8257 3580 8248 3582 8241
      3586 8243 3615 8217 3615 8214 3611 8213
      3610 8208 3613 8205 3612 8203 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 268DEG 24KT 3612 8202 3575 8235

Carroll

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEICESTER               35.65N 82.69W
06/25/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN. LARGE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             3 W INMAN               35.05N 82.14W
06/25/2018  E1.25 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT NEW CUT ROAD AND GOWAN ROAD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYSON CITY             35.43N 83.45W
06/25/2018                   SWAIN              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN AT THE COUNTY 911 CENTER.

&&

KRENTZ