Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

617 
WWUS52 KGSP 251818
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
218 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCC045-251827-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-180625T1845Z/
Greenville SC-
218 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3505 8222 3518 8222 3503 8183 3480 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 301DEG 14KT 3508 8222 

$$

SCC083-251845-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-180625T1845Z/
Spartanburg SC-
218 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY...

At 217 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of
Columbus, or 4 miles southwest of Campobello, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Lyman, Wellford, Inman, Roebuck,
Campobello, Moore, Lake Bowen and USC Upstate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Large hail driven by strong winds poses a serious threat of injury.
Extensive damage to the exterior of homes and vehicles will occur.
Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8222 3518 8222 3503 8183 3480 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 301DEG 14KT 3508 8222 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1058 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return again today with
warm and humid conditions preceding an upper level disturbance. A
weak cold front will drop through the forecast area tonight,
bringing more seasonable temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough
will increase chances for showers and storms Wednesday, with hot
weather returning to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11am EDT Monday:  Temperatures running nearly exactly as
observations, so will not adjust them for this update.  Adjusted
POPs to account for indications from latest high-res model guidance.
Current quiet conditions expected to give way to thunderstorms early
this afternoon with good coverage to all areas.  latest CAMs have
MCS over KY/TN continuing eastward and affecting western parts of
the CWA by 17Z, with widespread coverage through 3Z, after which
activity may decline for awhile.  Some of the models suggest 2 waves
of thunder.  The first is more diurnally driven after 17Z, followed
by a second round as remnants of MCS reach the area after 21Z.  The
practical effect is that these 2 rounds will merge to some extent,
and an extended period of thunderstorms is anticipated.  Main threat
will be severe wind gusts, per the SPC day1 SLIGHT risk outlook.

Otherwise...an ill-defined backdoor cold front stretches across
the eastern US, sitting just north of the area attm. A midlevel
shortwave trough is analyzed near the confluence of the Mississippi
and Ohio rivers. The front will sag south today, bringing
northeasterly winds and some relief in the heat and humidity to the
northern NC Foothills/Piedmont. That said, all areas still look to
destabilize today, with peak SBCAPE values likely exceeding 1000
J/kg throughout the FA (and over 2000 J south of the boundary). The
front itself may provide a source of convective initiation, but
that shortwave is timed to move east of the mountains during the
late afternoon and early evening. Meso models generally depict
some flavor of organized convection entering the area with it,
but even if that proves to be wrong, a new round of storms is
expected to form in situ. These could easily organize into a new
MCS given 0-6km shear up to 40 kt, enhanced by winds having turned
NE on the cool side of the front. This could result in a swath of
wind damage. DCAPE is likely to exceed 1000 J/kg on the warm side
(southern half of the area), so any discrete cells that form will
be especially capable of severe downbursts there. Max temps will
be a category or so above climo from the I-85 corridor south,
with near-normal temps to the north. Heat index will peak around
100 in the warmest spots of the lower Piedmont.

Precip chances persist tonight, with some convection possibly
continuing near the backdoor front, which should continue to
push south. Stratiform precip may also develop with the front,
though this looks less likely than usual because of the depth of
the northerly flow, i.e., the warm upglide is missing. Mins will
be a few degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday: We have a brief but significant pattern
change in place for Tuesday in the wake of today's convection, with
surface high over New England and the Mid Atlantic ridging down the
Eastern Seaboard at least briefly under confluent flow aloft. Upper
ridge stretching from the Deep South to the Great Lakes is bracketed
by lows over the Upper Midwest and the Canadian Maritimes, and the
surface front working south across the area tonight will allow for a
brief wedge of cooler air to settle across the area on Tuesday. The
surface high will transition quickly offshore with just a residual
cool pool up against the Appalachians late Tuesday, as the Midwest
upper low forces the upper ridge of the East Coast. But for the day
on Tuesday, with the (brief) damming, cloud cover, and low-level
northeasterly flow, temperatures will be held below seasonal normals
especially across the NW NC Piedmont, but even into portions of the
Upstate. The front should settle across the Upstate such that the
Upper Savannah Valley should still see those warmer temps closer to
normal. Showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected across
the damming area, with more "typical" summertime convection possible
across the Upper Savannah. Surface instability will be extremely
limited across the NC Piedmont and most of the Upstate just due to
the capping inversion atop the cool dome, and SPC Day2 outlook of
General Thunder works, though could certainly argue that the Upper
Savannah areas, with better surface buoyancy, could see at least an
isolated severe storm or two.

The cooler afternoon highs are short-lived and limited to only
Tuesday as the Midwest upper low crosses into the Great Lakes into
midweek. The associated surface front will be lagging back into the
Ohio Valley, but with the Southeast back in the warm sector and with
the support and lift from the upper trough passing overhead,
convection should increase again on Wednesday to above diurnal
levels. Could argue for categorical pops across the mountains but
for now have capped them at likely, with high chances elsewhere. The
upper trough will push toward the coast Wednesday night and the
attendant front will, as is often the case, sort of skip over the
mountains and set up again over the Piedmont, hanging up as our
typical summertime Piedmont trough as we push into the extended.
Highs on Wednesday will be pretty close to normal values as low-
level WAA picks up again with southwesterly low-level flow. Will be
interesting to see what happens with the remnant energy from today's
MCS, as the ECMWF progs this to re-intensify over the ocean, though
it should lift out and not be of any concern to us.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday: As we push into the extended, the upper
trough will move off the East Coast and upper ridging will build in
again across the Southern Plains and Mid-South, then traverse east
toward the MS Valley for Friday, with the ridge axis setting up over
the Appalachians for the Saturday and the East Coast Sunday. As one
might surmise, increasing thicknesses will result in increasing
heat, with a rinse-and-repeat trend through the period. Convection
will be more of a typical diurnal pattern, favoring the mountains
with the addition of orographic lift to the increasing convective
instability. Some concern remains with how much dewpoint mixing we
might see in the afternoons, and current grids do have some areas
reaching the 105 degree heat index threshold in the afternoons,
mainly in the Upper Savannah Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will turn northerly over western NC as
a backdoor cold front settles south, but this boundary will stall
and is not expected to flip winds in the Upstate until tonight. At
peak mixing it is possible some of the NC sites could experience
brief S winds, also. Low VFR cumulus should break out by late
morning as instability develops. A shortwave trough should move
into the area near peak heating, which should produce numerous
SHRA/TSRA over the region, especially over western NC. Conditions
will be favorable for storms to produce downbursts, and upscale
organization into a squall line is possible. If a squall line forms,
a swath of wind damage may accompany it. Based on meso model output,
KHKY/KCLT are at particular risk for such in the early evening
hours. Expect worsening flight conditions tonight as the boundary
settles further south and a moist N to NE low-level flow produces
widespread low stratus over the area. Fog may develop wherever
heavy rain falls this afternoon and evening, as well. Improvement
should occur by mid-morning Tue.

Outlook: Through midweek, a slow-moving or stalled front will
enhance coverage of SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon/evening.
Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     Med   74%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   71%     Med   75%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High  80%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   71%     Med   72%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   69%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...Wimberley/WJM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-072-
501>510-261715-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and
large hail will also be possible. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ001>014-019-261715-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and
large hail will also be possible. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Excessive heat possible.
..Thursday...Excessive heat possible.
..Friday...Excessive heat possible.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1159 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ASHEVILLE           35.59N 82.50W
06/24/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            NWS VOLUNTEER STUDENT RELAYED REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES
            BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE SWANNANOA RIVER IN EAST
            ASHEVILLE.

&&