River Flood Warning 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1224 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1225 AM EDT Wednesday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
across the FA as several flooding issues persist across portions of
western NC and northeast GA. No changes needed to the going
near term forecast attm.

Latest radar imagery depicts a band of heavy rain continuing to
move northward up through the FA this morning along the eastern
edge of the Blue Ridge escarpment into portions of the northern
foothills with another batch of heavy rain moving across
portions of northeast GA and the southwest mountains. The
latest HRRR continues to show the redevelopment of scattered and
hopefully, less intense, showers west of the I-77 corridor into
the NC mountains thru the night, thus have kept categorical
PoPs along the Blue Ridge overnight. With the diminishing severe
weather threat, localized flooding and mountain landslides over
the higher terrain will continue to be the primary concern as
periods of heavy rainfall are expected to continue through the
near term period. With the already saturated ground, even
marginal wind gusts could easily bring down a few trees. High
temperatures will remain near normal and low temps will stay
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: By the start of the short term period
(Wednesday night), the remnant circulation of Alberto will be over
the midwest getting absorbed by a negatively-tilted shortwave trough
lifting out of the Northern Plains. Upper high in the western
Atlantic combined with the slowly merging Alberto/shortwave will
continue to keep a moist fetch from the Gulf across the Southeast
and toward the Southern Appalachians. The trough will slowly lift
through the period as the upper ridge works down over the Bahamas,
with the deep moisture lifting to the northeast as well. A lingering
shortwave embedded in the pattern will push up the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of precip to area.
At least at the start of the period, PW values remain anomalously
high with deep warm cloud processes. Keeping the Flash Flood Watch
in effect through 12z Thursday looks good for now, though the
additional round of convection Thursday afternoon across the
mountains might be enough to warrant another extension...confidence
just not high enough at this time with QPF in the 6-hr period from
18zThu-00zFri less than 1/2 inch (though with the antecedent
conditions, that might be all it takes). Problem is that instability
will increase, Thu afternoon, both the NAM and GFS are creeping
SBCAPEs upwards of 3000J/kg across the escarpment/foothills/adjacent
Piedmont which could seriously intensify convective rates.

That secondary wave of moisture gets caught up over the mountains
Thursday night into Friday morning and might have a slow start with
convective initiation initially across the Piedmont, but still
enough to increase afternoon Piedmont pops to high chance. Keep pops
going overnight across the mountains with likelies again by Friday
afternoon.

Should see a slow warming trend through the period, pushing 90 for a
high across the Piedmont by Friday afternoon and continued very
muggy (yuck)...heat indices might be pushing the mid-90s with the
dewpoints remaining quite high at around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge centered over Texas
will try to briefly ridge into our region Friday night into
Saturday but make little progress.  A weak surface frontal boundary
settles southward through the area to provide a very modest airmass
change. However, a digging northern stream trough will approach the
southern and central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the
mountains on Monday. This feature will enhance convection at a time
when CAPE values will be low on Monday. However, looking at Sunday
PM the GFS has 2000 to 3000 CAPE over the western tip of NC and the
upper Savannah Valley at the time when the EC has the axis of trough
crossing our region. Minor vortices crossing our area on Sunday
afternoon could spark strong convection over NE GA and adjacent
areas. Highest POPs Sunday and Monday along with warmer temps than
what we have had recently.  Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip
below climo by Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An intense rain band with embedded tstms
oriented N-S across the GMU/GSP area continues to pivot
northeastward this evening. Widespread precip coverage ahead/east of
this line, but isolated to scattered to the west. There is still
enough instability for convection to linger into the evening, but
should gradually diminish in coverage overnight. Low cigs and some
fog is expected again overnight thru Wednesday morning, like the
last couple days. Little change in air mass for Wednesday aftn will
result in numerous showers and tstms again with peak heating, but
with slightly drier air starting to work in. CIGS should lift from
IFR to MVFR then scatter out somewhat to VFR by mid/late aftn. Winds
should favor a SE to S direction at all sites, but can be variable
at times around deeper convection.

Outlook: Expect continued rounds of scattered to widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms along with low cigs and briefly reduced
vsbys as tropical moisture lingers through at midweek. Drier air begins
to move into the area towards the end of the week, with some degree
of diurnal convection expected.

Confidence Table...

            04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z        22-00Z
KCLT       High  96%     Med   78%     Med   78%     High 100%
KGSP       High  85%     Med   75%     High  85%     High  84%
KAVL       High  89%     Med   78%     Med   78%     High  87%
KHKY       High  96%     High  84%     High 100%     Med   75%
KGMU       High  89%     High  84%     High  89%     High  81%
KAND       High 100%     High  90%     Med   78%     Med   72%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. The latest 3/6 hour FFG
guidance values are generally running 2.0 to 3.5 inches and these
will be quite achievable in the expected waves of tropical rain
showers - especially across the higher terrain. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ004>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/SGL
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK
HYDROLOGY...GSP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1215 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
310415-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1215 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-310415-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1215 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1206 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N SWANNANOA           35.61N 82.39W
05/29/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            AZALEA AVENUE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1213 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      4 E BLACK MOUNTAIN      35.62N 82.26W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            INTERSTATE 40 CLOSED BY MUDSLIDE AROUND MILE MARKER 67.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1220 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW MARION             35.71N 82.03W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            RIVER BREEZE CAMPGROUND FLOODED BY TWO FEET OF WATER AND
            WATER STILL RISING.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE TAYLORS            34.86N 82.26W
05/29/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PARTS OF INTERSTATE 85 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR PELHAM
            ROAD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1229 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E ASHEVILLE           35.58N 82.49W
05/30/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SWANNANOA RIVER FLOODING IN OTEEN NEAR HIGHWAY 81.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1238 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLD FORT                35.63N 82.18W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MOST OF DOWNTOWN OLD FORT UNDER WATER DUE TO EXTREME
            FLOODING WITH NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS AND SWIFT WATER
            RESCUES.

&&

HG