Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

870 
WGUS72 KGSP 300812
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

NCC011-121-300915-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-180530T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell NC-Avery NC-
412 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM EDT FOR
MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES...

At 400 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated mainly scattered light rain 
showers moving repeatedly northward across Avery and Mitchell 
Counties. These showers were producing rainfall at rates around one-
tenth of an inch an hour and this was falling on areas that received 
1 to 3 inches of rain in the past 6 hours.

High water conditions will continue along the North Toe River at 
Spruce Pine and water levels could approach Altapass Road. Flooding 
will also continue along Lost Cove Creek and Gragg Prong in eastern 
Avery County near the Caldwell County line.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Spruce Pine, Newland, Banner Elk, Elk Park, Bakersville, Beech
Mountain In Avery County, Crossnore, Sugar Mountain, Seven Devils and
Grandfather Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is 
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Be especially 
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of 
flooding.

Runoff from heavy rain into creeks and streams will cause sudden
increases in water levels and flows, even in areas where rainfall has
been light or nonexistent. Hikers, campers and other individuals
outdoors must immediately seek high ground and avoid all streams.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3607 8174 3596 8181 3600 8190
      3587 8200 3582 8214 3593 8215 3595 8220
      3601 8220 3599 8225 3604 8230 3603 8234
      3608 8235 3607 8241 3608 8241 3616 8222
      3615 8215 3611 8213 3612 8203 3629 8192

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
759 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT...Bands of heavy rain continue to slowly pivot
NEWD, oriented N-S. This is resulting in some training with intense,
tropical downpours that is causing flooding. No changes to the Flash
Flood Watch is needed at this time. Hopefully, with loss of daytime
heating, instability will decrease and rain rates will follow. The
latest HRRR shows gradual diminishing of precip across the eastern
half of the CWFA thru the evening, but then shows redevelopment of
scattered and hopefully, less intense, showers to the west that
spreads over the NC mountains thru the night. So categorical PoPs
will continue along the Blue Ridge overnight. The severe threat
looks to be lowering, due to decreasing instability and shear. So,
localized flooding and mountain landslides over the higher terrain
will continue to be the primary concern as periods of heavy rainfall
are expected to continue through the near term period. With the
already saturated ground, even marginal wind gusts could easily
bring down a few trees. High temperatures will remain near normal
and low temps will stay above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: By the start of the short term period
(Wednesday night), the remnant circulation of Alberto will be over
the midwest getting absorbed by a negatively-tilted shortwave trough
lifting out of the Northern Plains. Upper high in the western
Atlantic combined with the slowly merging Alberto/shortwave will
continue to keep a moist fetch from the Gulf across the Southeast
and toward the Southern Appalachians. The trough will slowly lift
through the period as the upper ridge works down over the Bahamas,
with the deep moisture lifting to the northeast as well. A lingering
shortwave embedded in the pattern will push up the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of precip to area.
At least at the start of the period, PW values remain anomalously
high with deep warm cloud processes. Keeping the Flash Flood Watch
in effect through 12z Thursday looks good for now, though the
additional round of convection Thursday afternoon across the
mountains might be enough to warrant another extension...confidence
just not high enough at this time with QPF in the 6-hr period from
18zThu-00zFri less than 1/2 inch (though with the antecedent
conditions, that might be all it takes). Problem is that instability
will increase, Thu afternoon, both the NAM and GFS are creeping
SBCAPEs upwards of 3000J/kg across the escarpment/foothills/adjacent
Piedmont which could seriously intensify convective rates.

That secondary wave of moisture gets caught up over the mountains
Thursday night into Friday morning and might have a slow start with
convective initiation initially across the Piedmont, but still
enough to increase afternoon Piedmont pops to high chance. Keep pops
going overnight across the mountains with likelies again by Friday
afternoon.

Should see a slow warming trend through the period, pushing 90 for a
high across the Piedmont by Friday afternoon and continued very
muggy (yuck)...heat indices might be pushing the mid-90s with the
dewpoints remaining quite high at around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge centered over Texas
will try to briefly ridge into our region Friday night into
Saturday but make little progress.  A weak surface frontal boundary
settles southward through the area to provide a very modest airmass
change. However, a digging northern stream trough will approach the
southern and central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the
mountains on Monday. This feature will enhance convection at a time
when CAPE values will be low on Monday. However, looking at Sunday
PM the GFS has 2000 to 3000 CAPE over the western tip of NC and the
upper Savannah Valley at the time when the EC has the axis of trough
crossing our region. Minor vortices crossing our area on Sunday
afternoon could spark strong convection over NE GA and adjacent
areas. Highest POPs Sunday and Monday along with warmer temps than
what we have had recently.  Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip
below climo by Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An intense rain band with embedded tstms
oriented N-S across the GMU/GSP area continues to pivot
northeastward this evening. Widespread precip coverage ahead/east of
this line, but isolated to scattered to the west. There is still
enough instability for convection to linger into the evening, but
should gradually diminish in coverage overnight. Low cigs and some
fog is expected again overnight thru Wednesday morning, like the
last couple days. Little change in air mass for Wednesday aftn will
result in numerous showers and tstms again with peak heating, but
with slightly drier air starting to work in. CIGS should lift from
IFR to MVFR then scatter out somewhat to VFR by mid/late aftn. Winds
should favor a SE to S direction at all sites, but can be variable
at times around deeper convection.

Outlook: Expect continued rounds of scattered to widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms along with low cigs and briefly reduced
vsbys as tropical moisture lingers through at midweek. Drier air begins
to move into the area towards the end of the week, with some degree
of diurnal convection expected.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High  90%     High  88%     High  94%     High 100%
KGSP       High  88%     High  87%     High  81%     High  83%
KAVL       High  89%     High  91%     High  90%     High  84%
KHKY       High  91%     High  99%     High  85%     High  86%
KGMU       High  80%     High  84%     High  93%     High  83%
KAND       Med   67%     High  87%     High  96%     High  88%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. The latest 3/6 hour FFG
guidance values are generally running 2.0 to 3.5 inches and these
will be quite achievable in the expected waves of tropical rain
showers - especially across the higher terrain. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GAZ017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JPT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
300930-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and piedmont of
northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the North
Carolina piedmont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across northeast Georgia and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-300930-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina, as well
as the North Carolina foothills.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across the far southwest
mountains of North Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE TABLE ROCK        35.86N 81.79W
05/29/2018                   BURKE              NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            UPPER CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS COVERING HWY 181 AND BROWN
            MOUNTAIN BEACH ROAD

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W LAKE ADGER          35.33N 82.26W
05/29/2018                   POLK               NC   PUBLIC

            BRIGHTS CREEK HAS OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS AND IS COMPLETELY
            COVERING MULITPLE BRIDGES. THIS HAS CUT OFF ACCESS TO THE
            BRIGHTS CREEK COMMUNITY.

&&

LEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LENOIR                  35.91N 81.53W
05/29/2018                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ZACHS FORK CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODING YARDS.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLD FORT                35.63N 82.18W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING ON RIMPSEY LOOP ROAD NEAR TWIN LAKES.
            EVACUATIONS ONGOING.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLOOD            2 SW FLETCHER           35.41N 82.53W
05/29/2018                   HENDERSON          NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            BUTLER BRIDGE RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF FRENCH BROAD

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
833 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-300100-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
833 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG...EASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM EDT...

At 831 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 10 miles southeast of Gastonia, or near Steele
Creek, moving north at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Gastonia, Central Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte,
Northwest Charlotte, Mt Holly, Belmont, Stanley, Cramerton and Town
Of Lake Wylie.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8094 3509 8116 3538 8113 3532 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 193DEG 14KT 3515 8103

Carroll