Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Advisories in 2018
River Flood Advisory 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this river flood advisory at May 30, 2018, 3:19 AM EDT for Buncombe County, North Carolina. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 30, 2018, 3:19 AM EDT (07:19 UTC)
- Expired
- May 30, 2018, 3:18 PM EDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
County Buncombe County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point French Broad River at Pearson Bridge Rd, 2 NW Asheville (AVLN7). The gauge peaked at 9.79 ft at May 30, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT.
- Action stage
- 6.5 ft
- Minor stage
- 9.5 ft
- Moderate stage
- 13 ft
- Major stage
- 18 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03451500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
101
WGUS82 KGSP 300719
FLSGSP
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018
...The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg SC
has issued a Flood Advisory for the French Broad River...
French Broad River At Asheville affecting Buncombe County
Heavy rain moving across the area has saturated the ground and caused
river levels to rise. Additional rainfall will likely cause the river
to crest just below flood stage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Advisory for a river forecast point means that nuisance
flooding is expected to occur along the river when the river level is
forecast to be just below or at the official flood stage.
Caution is urged when walking near river banks...keep children away
from drainage areas and culverts.
&&
NCC021-301918-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FL.Y.0021.180530T0719Z-180530T1918Z/
/AVLN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
319 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018
The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a
* Flood Advisory for
The French Broad River At Asheville.
* until this afternoon.
* At 03 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Forecast...the river will rise to near 9.0 feet by this afternoon.
IMPACTS: At 9.5 feet...Minor Flood Stage. The French Broad River is
flooding areas between Riverside Dr., and Lyman St. on the right bank
and Riverview Dr., Craven St. and Emma Rd. on the left bank,
including railroad and industrial property. Parts of Emma Rd.
between Pearson Bridge Rd. and Craven St. may be flooding..
&&
LAT...LON 3550 8262 3560 8261 3569 8265 3570 8257 3558 8255
3550 8254
$$
LECWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood advisory went out at May 30, 2:13 AM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 30, 2:13 AM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
213 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday: Main update for 06Z TAF issuance
along with minor tweaks to temperatures to coincide with latest
trends as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect across the FA as several
flooding issues persist across portions of western NC and
northeast GA.
Latest radar imagery depicts the continuation of showers moving
northward, all west of the I-77 corridor. Intensity of showers have
decreased within the past few hours, but nonetheless, they continue
to develop, especially across the upslope areas. Anticipate this
activity to persist well through the early morning hours. Localized
flooding and landslides across the higher terrain continue to be the
primary concerns this morning. With the already saturated ground,
even marginal wind gusts could easily bring down a few trees as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: By the start of the short term period
(Wednesday night), the remnant circulation of Alberto will be over
the midwest getting absorbed by a negatively-tilted shortwave trough
lifting out of the Northern Plains. Upper high in the western
Atlantic combined with the slowly merging Alberto/shortwave will
continue to keep a moist fetch from the Gulf across the Southeast
and toward the Southern Appalachians. The trough will slowly lift
through the period as the upper ridge works down over the Bahamas,
with the deep moisture lifting to the northeast as well. A lingering
shortwave embedded in the pattern will push up the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of precip to area.
At least at the start of the period, PW values remain anomalously
high with deep warm cloud processes. Keeping the Flash Flood Watch
in effect through 12z Thursday looks good for now, though the
additional round of convection Thursday afternoon across the
mountains might be enough to warrant another extension...confidence
just not high enough at this time with QPF in the 6-hr period from
18zThu-00zFri less than 1/2 inch (though with the antecedent
conditions, that might be all it takes). Problem is that instability
will increase, Thu afternoon, both the NAM and GFS are creeping
SBCAPEs upwards of 3000J/kg across the escarpment/foothills/adjacent
Piedmont which could seriously intensify convective rates.
That secondary wave of moisture gets caught up over the mountains
Thursday night into Friday morning and might have a slow start with
convective initiation initially across the Piedmont, but still
enough to increase afternoon Piedmont pops to high chance. Keep pops
going overnight across the mountains with likelies again by Friday
afternoon.
Should see a slow warming trend through the period, pushing 90 for a
high across the Piedmont by Friday afternoon and continued very
muggy (yuck)...heat indices might be pushing the mid-90s with the
dewpoints remaining quite high at around 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge centered over Texas
will try to briefly ridge into our region Friday night into
Saturday but make little progress. A weak surface frontal boundary
settles southward through the area to provide a very modest airmass
change. However, a digging northern stream trough will approach the
southern and central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the
mountains on Monday. This feature will enhance convection at a time
when CAPE values will be low on Monday. However, looking at Sunday
PM the GFS has 2000 to 3000 CAPE over the western tip of NC and the
upper Savannah Valley at the time when the EC has the axis of trough
crossing our region. Minor vortices crossing our area on Sunday
afternoon could spark strong convection over NE GA and adjacent
areas. Highest POPs Sunday and Monday along with warmer temps than
what we have had recently. Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip
below climo by Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With the exception of VFR currently at KCLT,
a mixture of MVFR/IFR prevails across a majority of the FA this
morning due to low cigs and lingering light showers which continue
to move northward, especially across the upslope areas. Looking at
latest satellite/ob trends, do anticipate KCLT will deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR within the next hour or two due to low cigs. Similar to the
past few days, expect patchy areas of fog to develop as well towards
morning. Later this morning, do anticipate cigs to improve to MVFR,
and gradually to VFR this afternoon, as daytime heating allows for
the redevelopment of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Into the evening hours, expect convection to wane, with VCSH
prevailing. Again, a mixture of VFR/MVFR is expected towards the end
of the valid TAf period, with isolated areas of IFR possible. SSE
winds around 5 to 10 kts will prevail.
Outlook: Drier air begins to move into the area towards the end of
the week, with some degree of diurnal convection expected.
Confidence Table...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT High 80% High 80% High 100% High 98%
KGSP Med 73% High 83% High 90% High 91%
KAVL High 88% High 80% High 96% High 92%
KHKY Med 77% High 82% High 83% High 90%
KGMU High 81% High 89% High 91% High 89%
KAND Med 72% High 94% High 90% High 90%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. The latest 3/6 hour FFG
guidance values are generally running 2.0 to 3.5 inches and these
will be quite achievable in the expected waves of tropical rain
showers - especially across the higher terrain. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ004>014-
019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/SGL
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...SGL
HYDROLOGY...GSPHazardous weather outlook, May 30, 12:15 AM EDT, 3 hours 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1215 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018 GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019- 310415- Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie- Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 1215 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. ..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-310415- Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- 1215 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. ..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 30, 2:41 AM EDT, 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S HENDERSONVILLE 35.30N 82.46W
05/29/2018 HENDERSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA
KANUGA RD AT ERKWOOD DR CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF MUD
CREEK.
&&
LECLocal storm report, May 30, 2:44 AM EDT, 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSE HENDERSONVILLE 35.31N 82.46W
05/29/2018 HENDERSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA
GREENVILLE HIGHWAY CLOSED FROM FRESH MARKET TO COPPER
PENNY RD DUE TO FLOODING OF MUD CREEK.
&&
LECLocal storm report, May 30, 2:46 AM EDT, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNE HENDERSONVILLE 35.36N 82.44W
05/29/2018 HENDERSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA
HOWARD GAP RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF CLEAR CREEK.
&&
LECLocal storm report, May 30, 2:49 AM EDT, 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW BAT CAVE 35.39N 82.30W
05/29/2018 HENDERSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA
LEDBETTER RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
LECLocal storm report, May 30, 2:51 AM EDT, 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW FLETCHER 35.41N 82.53W
05/29/2018 HENDERSON NC AWOS
BUTLER BRIDGE RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON THE FRENCH
BROAD RIVER.
&&
LECLocal storm report, May 30, 2:54 AM EDT, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW BAT CAVE 35.41N 82.32W
05/29/2018 HENDERSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA
CHIMNEY ROCK RD AT HOG ROCK RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON
REEDYPATCH CREEK.
&&
LECThe office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 8:33 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Mecklenburg | 27 min |
| May 29, 8:43 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | GSP | Gaston, Mecklenburg | 32 min |
| May 29, 10:11 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Jackson | 9 hr |
| May 29, 10:32 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | McDowell | 12 hr |
| May 29, 10:41 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Macon | 15 hr |
| May 29, 10:57 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Burke, Caldwell | 12 hr |
| May 29, 11:02 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford | 6 hr |
| May 29, 11:13 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Yancey | 6 hr |
| May 29, 11:23 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Avery, Mitchell | 6 hr |
| May 29, 11:56 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Transylvania | 24 hr |
| May 30, 12:40 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | McDowell | 10 hr |
| May 30, 1:32 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe | 31 hr |
| May 30, 3:10 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Iredell | 24 hr |
| May 30, 3:17 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | GSP | Madison | 5 hr |
| May 30, 4:47 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, Polk | 6 hr |
| May 30, 4:52 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Rutherford | 6 hr |
| May 30, 5:17 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Avery | 6 hr |
| May 30, 5:17 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Avery, Mitchell | 6 hr |
| May 30, 7:32 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Macon, Swain | 17 hr |
| May 30, 7:33 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | GSP | Cleveland | 12 hr |
| May 30, 7:42 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Jackson | 6 hr |
| May 30, 8:56 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe | 28 hr |
| May 30, 8:56 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | GSP | Madison | 38 hr |
| May 30, 10:28 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Rutherford | 18 hr |
| May 30, 10:55 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, Polk | 12 hr |
| May 30, 11:10 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Avery, Mitchell | 6 hr |
| May 30, 1:30 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Jackson | 12 hr |
| May 30, 5:10 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Avery, Mitchell, Yancey | 6 hr |
| May 30, 6:48 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 27 min |
| May 30, 6:56 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | GSP | Cleveland | 26 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Advisories in North Carolina, 2018Every river flood advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.