Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

848 
WGUS72 KGSP 010001
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
801 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCC071-SCC091-010011-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180601T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gaston NC-York SC-
801 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GASTON AND NORTH CENTRAL YORK
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3515 8101 3515 8104 3514 8105 3511 8103
      3509 8106 3505 8105 3514 8132 3517 8133
      3526 8132 3528 8135 3527 8102 3525 8101
      3522 8101 3518 8100

$$

TDP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist into Friday, with a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms crossing the region from the west in the
afternoon and evening. Slightly drier air will work in from the west
on Saturday, but with a brief return of moisture by late weekend.
Better drying will arrive behind a passing cold front in the early
to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 2pm EDT Thursday:  Round of showers and thunderstorms
currently underway with precipitation over much of Western North
Carolina , Northeast GA, and the foothills.  Showers will continue
into the evening, moving southeastward across the area.  Current
activity is related to upper wave cross the region with some
dynamical forcing.  Precipitable water values are down several
tenths of an inch from recent days, but with this upper support,
some heavy rain showers are still possible.  This wave is reinforced
by a second wave on Friday.  By Friday afternoon, a surface front
related to these upper waves will be come better defined and will
begin moving across the CWA. Surface front and better upper wave
will increase the strength of the wind profile and provide better
dynamical support for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Friday showers; however, will be faster moving and will leave behind
less precipitation that what we will see today.  With some
improvement in the flooding conditions expected through Friday
morning, a Flash Flood Watch for Friday afternoon/evening does not
seem justified at this point.  However, it might be considered if
enough areas get appreciable rainfall this afternoon.  The Flash
Flood watch for this afternoon/tonight still looks good, but has
been trimmed 6 hours at the end as shower activity will decline
considerably by early Friday morning.

With some upper support on Friday, both shear and instability
increase, and chances for severe weather go up a notch with the
Friday storms.  Deep layer shear improves to 15kt, with CAPE to 1500
j/kg.  Shear is still too weak for much of a tornado threat, but
chances for severe outflows and some hail exist.  Any strong winds
from storm outflows could cause numerous tree falls as tree roots
have been weakened from recent rains. Following the round of thunder
on Friday, the passage of the front will bring dewpoints and chances
for precipitation down considerably.  Dewpoints decline 4 degrees by
Friday night. Temperatures will remain generally warm and humid
through Friday, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 pm Thursday: The transition to a less tropical, more
typical late spring/early summer warm/humid regime will be completed
during the short term. Nevertheless, the pattern will remain quite
active, with a series of short wave troughs and attendant surface
features providing a focus for at least scattered diurnal convective
activity Sat and Sunday. Meanwhile, westerly deep layer flow will
allow for some modified elevated mixed layer air to filter into the
region, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km progged through the
weekend. This will result in substantial sbCAPE each day, with
maximum afternoon values likely reaching at least 2500 J/kg. Thus,
while there may be less overall coverage of convection, especially
on Saturday, there will be higher potential for strong to severe
updrafts. This will most likely be in the form of pulse storms on
Saturday, when the deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but
with more of a multicellular (if not something even more organized)
threat on Sunday, as deep layer shear increases to 30 to 40 kts
southeast of a robust short wave trough/upper low moving across the
Great Lakes. Although antecedent hydrologic conditions should
continue to gradually improve, a localized flash flood threat will
continue along the Blue Ridge into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: Much drier air will filter into the region
behind a cold front Monday morning. The GFS is more robust with the
deep 500mb low moving ESE from the Great Lakes on Monday. The EC has
this feature more north and weaker. Both models take this low across
PA and New Jersey Tuesday and Tuesday night and enough shortwave
energy should affect the NC Mountains and somewhat less effects for
the foothills and piedmont. Certainly needs slight to low chance
POPs as it passes. Drier air again returns after the low moves off
the East Coast. A weak backdoor cold front drops down Wednesday or
Thursday but currently not expected to have much affect on our
weather. Going with a dry forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Will need to watch the weak low over the NE Gulf and how it
influences our weather mid to late week. Temperatures will be near
or even a little below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Generally low cloud decks have kept many
stations at MVFR today, with some possible improvement as the
afternoon progresses. Thunderstorms this afternoon will move across
the area from the northwest to southeast through 2z.  Storms will be
scattered, but some stations will have heavy rain, thunder, and
reduced visibility and ceilings as temporary conditions at times.
Included some fog overnight at KAVL, but most stations are not
expected to have problems as boundary layer moisture is gradually
declining.  Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday
afternoon which will begin to affect TAF sites around 18Z.  These
storms will be occurring along and ahead of a front that will also
veer surface winds to be more southwesterly to westerly on Friday.

Outlook: Slightly drier air will filter into the area for the end of
the work week. However, scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, along with possible morning fog at a few locations
and/or low cigs are possible each day through early next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High  92%     High 100%     High  87%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
012000-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
area through this evening. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds and
large hail. Otherwise, torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to
ground lightning will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-012000-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
mountains and foothills through this evening. In addition to the
continued threat of localized flash flooding, a few of the storms
will be capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging
downburst winds and large hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
619 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

GAZ026-028-029-312300-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-
619 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...ELBERT
AND SOUTHERN HART COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Carnesville, or near Franklin Springs, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Carnesville, Hartwell, Royston, Bowman, Canon, Franklin
Springs, Bowersville, Russell State Park and Middleton.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8291 3401 8294 3403 8294 3404 8298
      3410 8304 3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8308
      3427 8312 3424 8317 3426 8329 3425 8332
      3426 8334 3437 8325 3442 8308 3427 8275
      3421 8274 3414 8271 3398 8284 3398 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 303DEG 22KT 3427 8316

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W FAIR PLAY           34.52N 83.07W
05/31/2018                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT SHELOR FERRY RD
            AND NORTH PORT BASS RD IN FAIR PLAY.

0550 PM     HAIL             2 W LAWNDALE            35.42N 81.59W
05/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER (1.00 IN) SIZE HAIL ON
            WEST STAGECOACH TRAIL.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW OAKWAY            34.59N 83.07W
05/31/2018                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON BLACKJACK RD.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW FIVE FORKS        34.81N 82.23W
05/31/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON BATESVILLE RD IN
            THE KINGSGATE SUBDIVISION.

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW OAKWAY            34.55N 83.06W
05/31/2018                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON SOUTH UNION RD.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ068-070-071-082-SCZ008-009-312330-
Gaston NC-Union NC-Cleveland NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-
631 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...GASTON...SOUTHWESTERN UNION...YORK AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 631 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Gastonia, or 5 miles southeast of South Gastonia,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Rock Hill, York, Shelby, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, Kings Mountain, Weddington, Fort Mill and Belmont.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8069 3482 8080 3494 8078 3508 8091
      3503 8090 3501 8091 3499 8089 3492 8086
      3490 8088 3484 8087 3482 8090 3482 8119
      3496 8148 3517 8164 3542 8133 3542 8131
      3509 8069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 303DEG 22KT 3516 8115

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW GOWENSVILLE       35.09N 82.23W
05/31/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

             SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 14 AND MORROW RD

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

GAZ029-SCZ010-011-019-312330-
Elbert GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
635 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ELBERT...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

At 634 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Abbeville, or 4 miles southeast of Lake Secession,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Honea Path, Ware Shoals, Calhoun Falls, Ninety
Six, Due West, Iva, Lake Secession and Donalds.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Russell and Lake Greenwood are in the path of these storms.
Cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous
boating conditions. Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8218 3402 8224
      3397 8231 3406 8233 3406 8244 3408 8248
      3407 8253 3402 8259 3400 8259 3414 8272
      3427 8276 3444 8263 3455 8240 3433 8217
      3422 8196 3413 8187 3397 8201 3395 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 303DEG 22KT 3425 8253

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

SCZ013-014-312345-
Union SC-Chester SC-
640 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHESTER AND EASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Chester, or 6 miles east of Carlisle, moving east
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Fort Lawn, Lockhart, Carlisle, Richburg, Lowrys, Chester
State Park, Blackstock, Monarch Mill and Leeds.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8156 3448 8155 3455 8166 3482 8153
      3482 8090 3479 8088 3471 8087 3455 8110
      3457 8142 3450 8142 3449 8144 3449 8149
      3445 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 270DEG 14KT 3458 8135

MOORE