Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

437 
WGUS72 KGSP 312142
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCC011-023-027-010215-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180601T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell NC-Avery NC-Burke NC-
542 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES...

At 537 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Up to three inches of rain have fallen 
since 200 PM. If not already occurring, flash flooding is expected 
to begin shortly. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible this evening which may lead to additional rapid rises on 
creeks, especially the upper reaches of Wilson Creek.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Blowing Rock In Caldwell County, Table Rock, Edgemont, Globe,
Collettsville, Upton and Jonas Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8164 3596 8158 3585 8170 3578 8165
      3581 8186 3595 8189 3603 8186 3608 8181
      3612 8176

$$

TDP

678 
WGUS72 KGSP 010208
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCC011-023-027-010217-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180601T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell NC-Avery NC-Burke NC-
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM EDT...

The heavy rain has ended, and any remaining showers through this 
evening should not be heavy enough to cause additional rises on area 
creeks and sreams. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3612 8164 3596 8158 3585 8170 3578 8165
      3581 8186 3595 8189 3603 8186 3608 8181
      3612 8176

$$

Carroll

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist into Friday, with a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms crossing the region from the west in the
afternoon and evening. Slightly drier air will work in from the west
on Saturday, but with a brief return of moisture by late weekend.
Better drying will arrive behind a passing cold front in the early
to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 2pm EDT Thursday:  Round of showers and thunderstorms
currently underway with precipitation over much of Western North
Carolina , Northeast GA, and the foothills.  Showers will continue
into the evening, moving southeastward across the area.  Current
activity is related to upper wave cross the region with some
dynamical forcing.  Precipitable water values are down several
tenths of an inch from recent days, but with this upper support,
some heavy rain showers are still possible.  This wave is reinforced
by a second wave on Friday.  By Friday afternoon, a surface front
related to these upper waves will be come better defined and will
begin moving across the CWA. Surface front and better upper wave
will increase the strength of the wind profile and provide better
dynamical support for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Friday showers; however, will be faster moving and will leave behind
less precipitation that what we will see today.  With some
improvement in the flooding conditions expected through Friday
morning, a Flash Flood Watch for Friday afternoon/evening does not
seem justified at this point.  However, it might be considered if
enough areas get appreciable rainfall this afternoon.  The Flash
Flood watch for this afternoon/tonight still looks good, but has
been trimmed 6 hours at the end as shower activity will decline
considerably by early Friday morning.

With some upper support on Friday, both shear and instability
increase, and chances for severe weather go up a notch with the
Friday storms.  Deep layer shear improves to 15kt, with CAPE to 1500
j/kg.  Shear is still too weak for much of a tornado threat, but
chances for severe outflows and some hail exist.  Any strong winds
from storm outflows could cause numerous tree falls as tree roots
have been weakened from recent rains. Following the round of thunder
on Friday, the passage of the front will bring dewpoints and chances
for precipitation down considerably.  Dewpoints decline 4 degrees by
Friday night. Temperatures will remain generally warm and humid
through Friday, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 pm Thursday: The transition to a less tropical, more
typical late spring/early summer warm/humid regime will be completed
during the short term. Nevertheless, the pattern will remain quite
active, with a series of short wave troughs and attendant surface
features providing a focus for at least scattered diurnal convective
activity Sat and Sunday. Meanwhile, westerly deep layer flow will
allow for some modified elevated mixed layer air to filter into the
region, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km progged through the
weekend. This will result in substantial sbCAPE each day, with
maximum afternoon values likely reaching at least 2500 J/kg. Thus,
while there may be less overall coverage of convection, especially
on Saturday, there will be higher potential for strong to severe
updrafts. This will most likely be in the form of pulse storms on
Saturday, when the deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but
with more of a multicellular (if not something even more organized)
threat on Sunday, as deep layer shear increases to 30 to 40 kts
southeast of a robust short wave trough/upper low moving across the
Great Lakes. Although antecedent hydrologic conditions should
continue to gradually improve, a localized flash flood threat will
continue along the Blue Ridge into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: Much drier air will filter into the region
behind a cold front Monday morning. The GFS is more robust with the
deep 500mb low moving ESE from the Great Lakes on Monday. The EC has
this feature more north and weaker. Both models take this low across
PA and New Jersey Tuesday and Tuesday night and enough shortwave
energy should affect the NC Mountains and somewhat less effects for
the foothills and piedmont. Certainly needs slight to low chance
POPs as it passes. Drier air again returns after the low moves off
the East Coast. A weak backdoor cold front drops down Wednesday or
Thursday but currently not expected to have much affect on our
weather. Going with a dry forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Will need to watch the weak low over the NE Gulf and how it
influences our weather mid to late week. Temperatures will be near
or even a little below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Generally low cloud decks have kept many
stations at MVFR today, with some possible improvement as the
afternoon progresses. Thunderstorms this afternoon will move across
the area from the northwest to southeast through 2z.  Storms will be
scattered, but some stations will have heavy rain, thunder, and
reduced visibility and ceilings as temporary conditions at times.
Included some fog overnight at KAVL, but most stations are not
expected to have problems as boundary layer moisture is gradually
declining.  Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday
afternoon which will begin to affect TAF sites around 18Z.  These
storms will be occurring along and ahead of a front that will also
veer surface winds to be more southwesterly to westerly on Friday.

Outlook: Slightly drier air will filter into the area for the end of
the work week. However, scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, along with possible morning fog at a few locations
and/or low cigs are possible each day through early next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High  92%     High 100%     High  87%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
012000-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
area through this evening. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds and
large hail. Otherwise, torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to
ground lightning will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-012000-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
mountains and foothills through this evening. In addition to the
continued threat of localized flash flooding, a few of the storms
will be capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging
downburst winds and large hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-311945-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
319 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Brevard, or 4 miles northwest of Caesars Head
State Park, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Caesars Head State Park, Jones Gap State Park, Dupont State Forest,
Cedar Mountain, Little River In Transylvania County and Connestee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8277 3525 8266 3517 8246 3499 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 312DEG 5KT 3516 8267

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ064-SCZ001-002-312015-
Transylvania NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
326 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of Brevard, or near Gorges State Park, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Toxaway, Devils Fork State Park, Gorges State Park, Lake
Jocassee, Jocassee Gorges, Sapphire, Sassafras Mountain, Rocky Bottom
and Bad Creek.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Jocassee is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8296 3507 8275 3507 8277 3506 8276
      3491 8294 3502 8302 3503 8301 3504 8303
      3505 8303 3506 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 309DEG 5KT 3507 8299

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   34.89N 82.98W
05/31/2018  E0.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
334 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ053-065-312000-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
334 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HENDERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Hendersonville, or over Fletcher, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Flat Rock, Etowah,
Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Asheville Airport and Skyland.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8227 3539 8227 3518 8245 3517 8247
      3523 8260 3526 8260 3526 8261 3527 8262
      3529 8261 3529 8262 3530 8262 3541 8273
      3554 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 308DEG 10KT 3542 8250

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

SCZ001-002-004-005-312045-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
339 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND EASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Seneca, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Central, Norris, Six Mile, Salem, Lake
Keowee, Oconee State Park and Mountain Rest.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Keowee and Lake Hartwell are in the path of this storm. Cloud
to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating
conditions. Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8296 3477 8309 3490 8319 3492 8317
      3492 8316 3493 8315 3493 8314 3494 8313
      3494 8311 3495 8313 3496 8312 3501 8306
      3476 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 308DEG 9KT 3476 8291

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ064-065-509-510-SCZ002-003-312100-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
403 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Hendersonville to 9 miles south of Brevard,
and moving southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Columbus, Brevard, Flat Rock, Etowah,
Slater-Marietta, Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Tryon and Saluda.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8214 3491 8267 3513 8286 3544 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 317DEG 19KT 3530 8244 3511 8269

MOORE