Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

788 
WWUS52 KGSP 312121
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

GAC119-147-257-SCC007-073-312145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180531T2145Z/
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Hart GA-Anderson SC-Oconee SC-
521 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHERN HART...
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...

At 520 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Hartwell, or near Tugaloo State Park, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Homeland Park, Reed Creek, Lavonia, Gumlog, Tugaloo State Park,
Anderson Airport, Lake Hartwell, Townville, Oakway and Fair Play.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Get away from the water 
and seek shelter in an interior room in the nearest shelter. If you 
can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8319 3462 8308 3451 8264 3429 8278
      3446 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 298DEG 12KT 3448 8300 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist into Friday, with a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms crossing the region from the west in the
afternoon and evening. Slightly drier air will work in from the west
on Saturday, but with a brief return of moisture by late weekend.
Better drying will arrive behind a passing cold front in the early
to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 2pm EDT Thursday:  Round of showers and thunderstorms
currently underway with precipitation over much of Western North
Carolina , Northeast GA, and the foothills.  Showers will continue
into the evening, moving southeastward across the area.  Current
activity is related to upper wave cross the region with some
dynamical forcing.  Precipitable water values are down several
tenths of an inch from recent days, but with this upper support,
some heavy rain showers are still possible.  This wave is reinforced
by a second wave on Friday.  By Friday afternoon, a surface front
related to these upper waves will be come better defined and will
begin moving across the CWA. Surface front and better upper wave
will increase the strength of the wind profile and provide better
dynamical support for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Friday showers; however, will be faster moving and will leave behind
less precipitation that what we will see today.  With some
improvement in the flooding conditions expected through Friday
morning, a Flash Flood Watch for Friday afternoon/evening does not
seem justified at this point.  However, it might be considered if
enough areas get appreciable rainfall this afternoon.  The Flash
Flood watch for this afternoon/tonight still looks good, but has
been trimmed 6 hours at the end as shower activity will decline
considerably by early Friday morning.

With some upper support on Friday, both shear and instability
increase, and chances for severe weather go up a notch with the
Friday storms.  Deep layer shear improves to 15kt, with CAPE to 1500
j/kg.  Shear is still too weak for much of a tornado threat, but
chances for severe outflows and some hail exist.  Any strong winds
from storm outflows could cause numerous tree falls as tree roots
have been weakened from recent rains. Following the round of thunder
on Friday, the passage of the front will bring dewpoints and chances
for precipitation down considerably.  Dewpoints decline 4 degrees by
Friday night. Temperatures will remain generally warm and humid
through Friday, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 pm Thursday: The transition to a less tropical, more
typical late spring/early summer warm/humid regime will be completed
during the short term. Nevertheless, the pattern will remain quite
active, with a series of short wave troughs and attendant surface
features providing a focus for at least scattered diurnal convective
activity Sat and Sunday. Meanwhile, westerly deep layer flow will
allow for some modified elevated mixed layer air to filter into the
region, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km progged through the
weekend. This will result in substantial sbCAPE each day, with
maximum afternoon values likely reaching at least 2500 J/kg. Thus,
while there may be less overall coverage of convection, especially
on Saturday, there will be higher potential for strong to severe
updrafts. This will most likely be in the form of pulse storms on
Saturday, when the deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but
with more of a multicellular (if not something even more organized)
threat on Sunday, as deep layer shear increases to 30 to 40 kts
southeast of a robust short wave trough/upper low moving across the
Great Lakes. Although antecedent hydrologic conditions should
continue to gradually improve, a localized flash flood threat will
continue along the Blue Ridge into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: Much drier air will filter into the region
behind a cold front Monday morning. The GFS is more robust with the
deep 500mb low moving ESE from the Great Lakes on Monday. The EC has
this feature more north and weaker. Both models take this low across
PA and New Jersey Tuesday and Tuesday night and enough shortwave
energy should affect the NC Mountains and somewhat less effects for
the foothills and piedmont. Certainly needs slight to low chance
POPs as it passes. Drier air again returns after the low moves off
the East Coast. A weak backdoor cold front drops down Wednesday or
Thursday but currently not expected to have much affect on our
weather. Going with a dry forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Will need to watch the weak low over the NE Gulf and how it
influences our weather mid to late week. Temperatures will be near
or even a little below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Generally low cloud decks have kept many
stations at MVFR today, with some possible improvement as the
afternoon progresses. Thunderstorms this afternoon will move across
the area from the northwest to southeast through 2z.  Storms will be
scattered, but some stations will have heavy rain, thunder, and
reduced visibility and ceilings as temporary conditions at times.
Included some fog overnight at KAVL, but most stations are not
expected to have problems as boundary layer moisture is gradually
declining.  Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday
afternoon which will begin to affect TAF sites around 18Z.  These
storms will be occurring along and ahead of a front that will also
veer surface winds to be more southwesterly to westerly on Friday.

Outlook: Slightly drier air will filter into the area for the end of
the work week. However, scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms, along with possible morning fog at a few locations
and/or low cigs are possible each day through early next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High  92%     High 100%     High  87%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
012000-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
area through this evening. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds and
large hail. Otherwise, torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to
ground lightning will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-012000-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
mountains and foothills through this evening. In addition to the
continued threat of localized flash flooding, a few of the storms
will be capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging
downburst winds and large hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
334 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ053-065-312000-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
334 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HENDERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Hendersonville, or over Fletcher, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Flat Rock, Etowah,
Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Asheville Airport and Skyland.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8227 3539 8227 3518 8245 3517 8247
      3523 8260 3526 8260 3526 8261 3527 8262
      3529 8261 3529 8262 3530 8262 3541 8273
      3554 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 308DEG 10KT 3542 8250

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

SCZ001-002-004-005-312045-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
339 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND EASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Seneca, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Central, Norris, Six Mile, Salem, Lake
Keowee, Oconee State Park and Mountain Rest.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Keowee and Lake Hartwell are in the path of this storm. Cloud
to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating
conditions. Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8296 3477 8309 3490 8319 3492 8317
      3492 8316 3493 8315 3493 8314 3494 8313
      3494 8311 3495 8313 3496 8312 3501 8306
      3476 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 308DEG 9KT 3476 8291

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ064-065-509-510-SCZ002-003-312100-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
403 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Hendersonville to 9 miles south of Brevard,
and moving southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Columbus, Brevard, Flat Rock, Etowah,
Slater-Marietta, Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Tryon and Saluda.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8214 3491 8267 3513 8286 3544 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 317DEG 19KT 3530 8244 3511 8269

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004-010-312115-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
429 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...EAST
CENTRAL STEPHENS...NORTHEASTERN HART...WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Clemson, or 5 miles north of Lake Hartwell, moving
east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Seneca, Northlake, Pendleton, Reed Creek, Gumlog, Tugaloo
State Park, Anderson Airport, Lake Hartwell and Townville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8316 3461 8320 3460 8316 3463 8312
      3468 8286 3465 8284 3465 8283 3463 8285
      3462 8285 3466 8280 3459 8259 3438 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 289DEG 15KT 3457 8281

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
435 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ509-SCZ002-003-006-007-312115-
Polk Mountains NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
435 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
GREENVILLE...NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 435 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of
Columbus to 9 miles northwest of Greenville Downtown, and moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors,
Five Forks, Travelers Rest, Duncan, Lyman and Landrum.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 8252 3497 8254 3496 8257 3497 8259
      3513 8262 3517 8251 3516 8250 3518 8248
      3518 8246 3516 8246 3517 8244 3520 8242
      3521 8238 3519 8238 3518 8237 3522 8235
      3515 8198 3469 8219 3470 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 297DEG 23KT 3509 8229 3497 8248

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
447 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

SCZ006-010-312145-
Anderson SC-Greater Greenville SC-
447 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Anderson, or near Belton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Belton, Williamston, Northlake, Honea Path,
West Pelzer, Anderson Airport, Sandy Springs and Princeton.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8281 3462 8274 3466 8251 3459 8224
      3453 8224 3437 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 300DEG 9KT 3455 8250

MOORE