Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Green Bay, WI

108 
WWUS53 KGRB 280348
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIC029-280430-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180828T0430Z/
Door WI-
1048 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR DOOR COUNTY...

At 1048 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Ephraim to 7 miles southwest of Sturgeon Bay,
moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Ephraim and Newport State Park around 1055 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Peninsula State Park, Valmy, Whitefish Bay, Rock Island State Park,
Carlsville, Vignes, Maplewood, Sister Bay, Institute and Potawatomi
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4517 8697 4510 8695 4501 8710 4486 8714
      4468 8732 4467 8778 4507 8752 4496 8758
      4496 8756 4493 8745 4504 8738 4521 8742
      4525 8734 4522 8721 4533 8710 4534 8701
      4541 8698 4540 8684 4543 8682 4538 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 242DEG 65KT 4519 8720 4473 8744 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

116 
WWUS53 KGRB 280359
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1059 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIC029-280430-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180828T0430Z/
Door WI-
1059 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR DOOR COUNTY...

At 1059 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles north of Newport State Park to 8 miles south
of Jacksonport, moving northeast at 85 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
Door County, including the following locations... Peninsula Center,
Fish Creek, Peninsula State Park, Valmy, Ellison Bay, Whitefish Bay,
Rock Island State Park, Carlsville, Vignes and Washington Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4517 8697 4510 8695 4501 8710 4486 8714
      4477 8726 4469 8731 4468 8755 4480 8743
      4493 8739 4522 8721 4534 8701 4541 8698
      4540 8684 4543 8682 4538 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 233DEG 75KT 4532 8696 4486 8720 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Bersch

495 
WWUS53 KGRB 280417
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1117 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIC029-280427-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180828T0430Z/
Door WI-
1117 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4517 8697 4510 8695 4501 8710 4486 8714
      4477 8726 4469 8731 4468 8755 4480 8743
      4493 8739 4522 8721 4534 8701 4541 8698
      4540 8684 4543 8682 4538 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 233DEG 75KT 4552 8658 4506 8683 

$$

Kurimski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
648 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front positioned from northeast Minnesota to eastern South Dakota
and a subtle warm front from around Mosinee to Green Bay early
this afternoon. Storms are just developing south of Duluth at 2
pm. Partial clearing is taking place over southern Minnesota and
southwest Wisconsin ahead of the front, where ML capes are rising
above 2k j/kg. Still quite a bit of inhibition though, but with
further destabilization, strong to severe thunderstorms remain on
track to develop over southern MN later this afternoon. Over
northern WI, outside of a few spotty showers/storms, a relative
lull in the shower/storm activity will continue into early this
evening. As the anticipated thunderstorm complex over Minnesota
moves across northern WI, severe weather potential remains the
main forecast concern.

Tonight...The cold front will slowly sag southeast across
northwest Wisconsin and into central WI by 12z Tue. With help of a
50 to 65 kt low level jet, thunderstorms that develop over
Minnesota are expected to track northeast initially, before
turning east over northern WI this evening. Elevated instability
of 1500-2500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts will support
the possibility of severe weather. Most hourly models show similar
solutions through the evening, and depict a squall line moving
into north-central WI around 02z and northeast WI around 04-05z.
Due to 0-3 km winds of 40-50 kts, damaging straight line winds
will be the main threat, but will also be strong enough for
isolated tornadoes to spin up along the line. They differ,
however, in the evolution of the thunderstorm complex as it exits.
In addition to the severe weather chances, concerned about
training storms as the thunderstorm complex becomes more
orientated east to west after midnight. A few hourly models show
this occurring over central to east-central WI in locations which
received 2-3 inches of rain last night. Because of the
uncertainty, will let the flash flood watch continue through 12z
Tue. The fast moving nature of the system should limit flash
flooding somewhat, with 1-2 inches of rain looking possible at
most locations, but locally higher amounts are also possible where
training occurs.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Monday
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Expecting a brief break in the activity Tuesday morning across
most of the area, with a few lingering showers possible here and
there. More thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday
afternoon as a surface cold front will be draped across Wisconsin
and the environment will retain sufficient moisture and
instability along and south of the boundary. Additionally, an
approaching shortwave and enhanced support from the RRQ of the LL
jet will aid in convective development.

Unlike today's area- wide threat, Tuesday's severe weather
potential is mainly confined to central/east- central Wisconsin
and southward. This is the area south of the cold front where
MUCAPE values build to around 2000 to 4000 J/kg and bulk shear is
around 50 knots. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats. Forecast hodographs are not particularly favorable for
tornado development, but with low LCL heights (possibly around
500 meters) a brief spin-up is not out of the question, especially
considering there may be lingering boundaries from Monday night's
storms. Localized flooding also remains possible with any storms,
with PWats around 1.5 to 2.25 inches across central and east-
central Wisconsin. Further north, flooding chances appear minimal.
The thunderstorm threat looks to wane by late evening as
instability is lost. A few showers may linger from Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

Skies will gradually clear throughout Wednesday, as shortwave
energy departs and weak upper level ridging and surface high
pressure builds in. The dry stretch should last through Thursday,
and then another mid-level shortwave/surface front are progged to
impact the state Friday/Saturday. Timing details have yet to be
fully resolved this far out and stuck with a model blended
solution for the forecast.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain warn and muggy across central and
east- central Wisconsin, with cooler and drier air starting to
filter into the north. Highs will range from around 70 degrees in
Vilas County to the middle 80s in the Fox Valley. High
temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degree cooler on Wednesday
(the coolest day of the week) and then return to near normal by
Friday and through the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

A large thunderstorm complex will move through the forecast area
from 01z-06z/Tues, accompanied by strong to damaging winds and
torrential rainfall. IFR conditions should occur with the
heavier downpours. Another strong low-level jet will cause LLWS
to develop at all of the TAF sites by early evening before
dissipating overnight into early Tuesday morning.

The storms may linger over parts of central and east central into
the overnight hours before ending. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop over the southeast half of the forecast
Tuesday afternoon, along and ahead of a cold front.

IFR and local LIFR ceilings will develop over north central and
far northeast WI overnight, and linger through much of the day
on Tuesday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WIZ018>022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KLB
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-290000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms across the area tonight.
The primary concerns with these storms are damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. Torrential rainfall could lead to flooding,
especially across parts of central and east-central Wisconsin,
at locations that received heavy rain last night.

Large waves may result in dangerous currents and hazardous
swimming conditions on Lake Michigan beaches tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk of severe storms south of a line from
Wausaukee to Wisconsin Rapids on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns with the
storms. Additional heavy rainfall could also lead to flooding.

Large waves may result in dangerous currents and hazardous
swimming conditions on Lake Michigan beaches into early Tuesday
afternoon.

There is another chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon
through Saturday. It is too early to determine their severe
potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report rainfall amounts in excess of
one inch, flooding, or any other severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-290000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense marine fog will impact the nearshore waters south
of Sturgeon Bay through midnight.

Thunderstorms are likely tonight. Some of these storms could be
strong or severe from late evening through the early overnight
hours.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight, on the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and on the waters of Green Bay,
due to increasing southerly winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms at times Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Some of these storms could be strong or severe.
Thunderstorms are possible again Friday night into next weekend.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected to continue
Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon on the waters of
Lake Michigan.

Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1006 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE AMHERST            44.44N 89.27W
08/27/2018                   PORTAGE            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES ON POWER LINES

&&

BERSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1018 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIZ039-049-050-280400-
Calumet WI-Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
1018 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWN...NORTHEASTERN CALUMET AND
NORTHWESTERN MANITOWOC COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1018 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Black Creek to near Northern
Lake Winnebago. Movement was northeast at 75 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and torrential rainfall will be possible
with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Green Bay and Bellevue Town around 1030 PM CDT.
  Bay Shore Park and Denmark around 1040 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Maribel, Wayside,
Morrison, Humboldt, Ledgeview, Leo Frigo Bridge, Askeaton, Howard, St
John and Shirley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4408 8820 4459 8819 4459 8821 4468 8825
      4467 8819 4468 8793 4463 8793 4468 8781
      4468 8775 4466 8775 4465 8776 4416 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 246DEG 66KT 4450 8828 4420 8837

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1022 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
08/27/2018  M51 MPH          OUTAGAMIE          WI   AWOS

&&

HYKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREEN BAY               44.51N 88.00W
08/27/2018  M52 MPH          BROWN              WI   ASOS

&&

HYKIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1029 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIZ022-280430-
Door WI-
1029 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOOR COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1028 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Marinette to 6 miles west of Bay Shore
Park. Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and torrential rainfall will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sturgeon Bay, Jacksonport, Ephraim, Egg Harbor, Newport State Park,
Whitefish Bay, Brussels, Baileys Harbor, Sister Bay and Forestville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4533 8681 4516 8697 4510 8695 4501 8710
      4486 8715 4468 8732 4468 8781 4487 8765
      4491 8752 4494 8762 4508 8752 4494 8759
      4492 8754 4493 8746 4496 8744 4507 8736
      4521 8742 4522 8721 4541 8698 4543 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 242DEG 55KT 4509 8755 4465 8794

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSHKOSH                 44.01N 88.55W
08/27/2018  M55 MPH          WINNEBAGO          WI   ASOS

            TIME ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1025 AND 1030 PM.

&&

HYKIN