Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Green Bay, WI

612 
WWUS53 KGRB 280319
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1019 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIC083-115-280330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-180828T0330Z/
Oconto WI-Shawano WI-
1019 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OCONTO AND EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES...

At 1019 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oconto, or 18
miles southwest of Marinette, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Oconto, Little Suamico, Chase, Oconto Falls, Abrams, Angelica,
Stiles, Pensaukee, Morgan and Sampson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4459 8855 4485 8824 4503 8811 4501 8794
      4499 8794 4498 8776 4496 8776 4497 8773
      4495 8759 4493 8771 4490 8777 4486 8777
      4471 8792 4467 8793 4468 8799 4468 8826
      4459 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 242DEG 49KT 4490 8788 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

657 
WWUS53 KGRB 280327
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIC083-115-280336-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-180828T0330Z/
Oconto WI-Shawano WI-
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN OCONTO AND EASTERN
SHAWANO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4459 8855 4485 8824 4503 8811 4501 8794
      4499 8794 4498 8776 4496 8776 4497 8773
      4495 8759 4493 8771 4490 8777 4486 8777
      4471 8792 4467 8793 4468 8799 4468 8826
      4459 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 242DEG 49KT 4494 8777 

$$

Kurimski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
648 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front positioned from northeast Minnesota to eastern South Dakota
and a subtle warm front from around Mosinee to Green Bay early
this afternoon. Storms are just developing south of Duluth at 2
pm. Partial clearing is taking place over southern Minnesota and
southwest Wisconsin ahead of the front, where ML capes are rising
above 2k j/kg. Still quite a bit of inhibition though, but with
further destabilization, strong to severe thunderstorms remain on
track to develop over southern MN later this afternoon. Over
northern WI, outside of a few spotty showers/storms, a relative
lull in the shower/storm activity will continue into early this
evening. As the anticipated thunderstorm complex over Minnesota
moves across northern WI, severe weather potential remains the
main forecast concern.

Tonight...The cold front will slowly sag southeast across
northwest Wisconsin and into central WI by 12z Tue. With help of a
50 to 65 kt low level jet, thunderstorms that develop over
Minnesota are expected to track northeast initially, before
turning east over northern WI this evening. Elevated instability
of 1500-2500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts will support
the possibility of severe weather. Most hourly models show similar
solutions through the evening, and depict a squall line moving
into north-central WI around 02z and northeast WI around 04-05z.
Due to 0-3 km winds of 40-50 kts, damaging straight line winds
will be the main threat, but will also be strong enough for
isolated tornadoes to spin up along the line. They differ,
however, in the evolution of the thunderstorm complex as it exits.
In addition to the severe weather chances, concerned about
training storms as the thunderstorm complex becomes more
orientated east to west after midnight. A few hourly models show
this occurring over central to east-central WI in locations which
received 2-3 inches of rain last night. Because of the
uncertainty, will let the flash flood watch continue through 12z
Tue. The fast moving nature of the system should limit flash
flooding somewhat, with 1-2 inches of rain looking possible at
most locations, but locally higher amounts are also possible where
training occurs.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Monday
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Expecting a brief break in the activity Tuesday morning across
most of the area, with a few lingering showers possible here and
there. More thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday
afternoon as a surface cold front will be draped across Wisconsin
and the environment will retain sufficient moisture and
instability along and south of the boundary. Additionally, an
approaching shortwave and enhanced support from the RRQ of the LL
jet will aid in convective development.

Unlike today's area- wide threat, Tuesday's severe weather
potential is mainly confined to central/east- central Wisconsin
and southward. This is the area south of the cold front where
MUCAPE values build to around 2000 to 4000 J/kg and bulk shear is
around 50 knots. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats. Forecast hodographs are not particularly favorable for
tornado development, but with low LCL heights (possibly around
500 meters) a brief spin-up is not out of the question, especially
considering there may be lingering boundaries from Monday night's
storms. Localized flooding also remains possible with any storms,
with PWats around 1.5 to 2.25 inches across central and east-
central Wisconsin. Further north, flooding chances appear minimal.
The thunderstorm threat looks to wane by late evening as
instability is lost. A few showers may linger from Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

Skies will gradually clear throughout Wednesday, as shortwave
energy departs and weak upper level ridging and surface high
pressure builds in. The dry stretch should last through Thursday,
and then another mid-level shortwave/surface front are progged to
impact the state Friday/Saturday. Timing details have yet to be
fully resolved this far out and stuck with a model blended
solution for the forecast.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain warn and muggy across central and
east- central Wisconsin, with cooler and drier air starting to
filter into the north. Highs will range from around 70 degrees in
Vilas County to the middle 80s in the Fox Valley. High
temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degree cooler on Wednesday
(the coolest day of the week) and then return to near normal by
Friday and through the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

A large thunderstorm complex will move through the forecast area
from 01z-06z/Tues, accompanied by strong to damaging winds and
torrential rainfall. IFR conditions should occur with the
heavier downpours. Another strong low-level jet will cause LLWS
to develop at all of the TAF sites by early evening before
dissipating overnight into early Tuesday morning.

The storms may linger over parts of central and east central into
the overnight hours before ending. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop over the southeast half of the forecast
Tuesday afternoon, along and ahead of a cold front.

IFR and local LIFR ceilings will develop over north central and
far northeast WI overnight, and linger through much of the day
on Tuesday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for WIZ018>022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KLB
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-290000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms across the area tonight.
The primary concerns with these storms are damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. Torrential rainfall could lead to flooding,
especially across parts of central and east-central Wisconsin,
at locations that received heavy rain last night.

Large waves may result in dangerous currents and hazardous
swimming conditions on Lake Michigan beaches tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk of severe storms south of a line from
Wausaukee to Wisconsin Rapids on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns with the
storms. Additional heavy rainfall could also lead to flooding.

Large waves may result in dangerous currents and hazardous
swimming conditions on Lake Michigan beaches into early Tuesday
afternoon.

There is another chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon
through Saturday. It is too early to determine their severe
potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report rainfall amounts in excess of
one inch, flooding, or any other severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-290000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense marine fog will impact the nearshore waters south
of Sturgeon Bay through midnight.

Thunderstorms are likely tonight. Some of these storms could be
strong or severe from late evening through the early overnight
hours.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight, on the
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and on the waters of Green Bay,
due to increasing southerly winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms at times Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Some of these storms could be strong or severe.
Thunderstorms are possible again Friday night into next weekend.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected to continue
Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon on the waters of
Lake Michigan.

Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
834 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHFIELD              44.66N 90.16W
08/27/2018                   WOOD               WI   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN THE CITY. PUBLIC REPORT FROM WAOW. DELAYED
            REPORT.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
901 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANTIGO                  45.15N 89.15W
08/27/2018                   LANGLADE           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

HYKIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
903 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

WIZ010-011-019>021-280245-
Langlade WI-Northern Oconto County WI-Oneida WI-Forest WI-
Menominee WI-
903 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FOREST...SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA...
NORTHWESTERN MENOMINEE...NORTHERN OCONTO AND EASTERN LANGLADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 903 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Crandon to near Pearson to 7
miles east of Antigo. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crandon, White Lake, Popple River, Carter, Langlade, Laona, Wabeno,
Nashville, Townsend and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4599 8869 4572 8868 4572 8843 4538 8843
      4537 8830 4503 8898 4546 8895 4547 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 235DEG 49KT 4556 8910 4531 8901 4515 8899

Kurimski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
930 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-073-074-280530-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
930 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

Look for showers and thunderstorms to continue across north-
central and northeast Wisconsin during the overnight hours. Some
of these stronger storms could produce brief wind gusts to 40 to
50 mph. These winds could cause minor tree damage or down power
lines.

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
935 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUTOMA                 44.06N 89.28W
08/27/2018  M48 MPH          WAUSHARA           WI   AWOS

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
946 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     S PLOVER                44.45N 89.53W
08/27/2018  M48 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF 1.19 INCHES AS OF 940 PM, AS WELL.

&&

HYKIN