Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Goodland, KS

649 
WWUS53 KGLD 190331
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
931 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSC181-193-190345-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-180519T0345Z/
Thomas KS-Sherman KS-
931 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM
MDT/1045 PM CDT/ FOR WESTERN THOMAS AND NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES...

At 931 PM MDT/1031 PM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from 8 miles northeast of Goodland to 4 miles west of
Levant to 8 miles southeast of Brewster, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Goodland, Brewster, Levant and Edson. 

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 18 and 55.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 10182 3957 10172 3942 10092 3920 10128
      3926 10153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 220DEG 22KT 3945 10161 3936 10127 3930 10125 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

778 
WWUS53 KGLD 190339 RRA
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
939 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSC181-193-190349-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-180519T0345Z/
Thomas KS-Sherman KS-
939 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN THOMAS AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM MDT/1045 PM
CDT/...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT/1100
PM CDT/ for northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3936 10182 3957 10172 3942 10092 3920 10128
      3926 10153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 230DEG 27KT 4103 9911 4094 9877 4088 9875 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
621 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Just completed an update. Main reason was to expand the severe
thunderstorm watch. Also raised pops and raised rainfall amounts
based on high resolution/CAMs have a very good handle on what is
going on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast still looks on track for this afternoon/evening with
convection expected to form vicinity of leading edge of outflow
boundary. Latest GOES imagery suggests boundary lies along
convergent zone of stable wave clouds and cumulus streets over
northern Greeley and Wichita counties extending up toward Gove
and over to Wakeeney. HRRR has been very consistent last 6 runs or
so with timing of storm initiation around 4-5 pm MDT and location
around highway 96. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests there may be
a couple more hours before CINH is overcome.

Guidance points to storms quickly developing upscale with discrete
storms existing in a narrow time window early on. Not thinking
much of a tornado threat given weak 1 km bulk shear and SRH
values, but best chances would likely be across far southern part
of our forecast area late this afternoon.

Given mean wind flow and high precipitable water values, potential
for heavy rainfall exists in areas which experience training
cells, perhaps with better chances over our north and northeast
counties.

On Saturday, cold front will push through the area with GFS a bit
faster than NAM, accompanied by showers. Current forecast has
Saturday high temps ranging from low 50s NW to low 70s SE, but
frontal timing may require refinement.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Long range guidance suggests that split flow aloft will prevail
over the western CONUS through next week -- and that shortwave
energy digging ashore the PAC NW on Sunday will amplify into a
closed low that stalls over portions of the Intermountain West
Mon-Wed. W-SW flow aloft is expected downstream over the Rockies
and High Plains. Given a complicated synoptic pattern
characterized by split flow and a cut-off low -- confidence is
very low w/regard to sensible weather over the Tri-State area
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Widespread thunderstorms that will be severe and producing heavy
rainfall are developing and expanding over the area. Prevailing
conditions will be Mvfr with occasional ifr conditions through
this period. Winds will be gusty and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
629 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
629 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018 /729 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area
through the night. For this evening, these storms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Through
the night these storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall that could cause flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
808 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             6 ESE PARK              39.07N 100.27W
05/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       GOVE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
812 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             5 N JENNINGS            39.75N 100.29W
05/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
832 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     TRIBUNE                 38.47N 101.75W
05/18/2018  E60 MPH          GREELEY            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MBULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
836 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      QUINTER                 39.07N 100.23W
05/18/2018                   GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMBER OF ROADS UNDER WATER IN QUINTER... BOTTOM OF RAMP
            107 HAS EST. 8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER.

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
838 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             6 ESE GEM               39.38N 100.81W
05/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             13 N TRIBUNE            38.66N 101.75W
05/18/2018  E0.25 INCH       GREELEY            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD 13 MILES NORTH OF TRIBUNE COMPLETELY COVERED WITH
            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

BWARREN