Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
621 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Just completed an update. Main reason was to expand the severe
thunderstorm watch. Also raised pops and raised rainfall amounts
based on high resolution/CAMs have a very good handle on what is
going on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast still looks on track for this afternoon/evening with
convection expected to form vicinity of leading edge of outflow
boundary. Latest GOES imagery suggests boundary lies along
convergent zone of stable wave clouds and cumulus streets over
northern Greeley and Wichita counties extending up toward Gove
and over to Wakeeney. HRRR has been very consistent last 6 runs or
so with timing of storm initiation around 4-5 pm MDT and location
around highway 96. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests there may be
a couple more hours before CINH is overcome.

Guidance points to storms quickly developing upscale with discrete
storms existing in a narrow time window early on. Not thinking
much of a tornado threat given weak 1 km bulk shear and SRH
values, but best chances would likely be across far southern part
of our forecast area late this afternoon.

Given mean wind flow and high precipitable water values, potential
for heavy rainfall exists in areas which experience training
cells, perhaps with better chances over our north and northeast
counties.

On Saturday, cold front will push through the area with GFS a bit
faster than NAM, accompanied by showers. Current forecast has
Saturday high temps ranging from low 50s NW to low 70s SE, but
frontal timing may require refinement.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Long range guidance suggests that split flow aloft will prevail
over the western CONUS through next week -- and that shortwave
energy digging ashore the PAC NW on Sunday will amplify into a
closed low that stalls over portions of the Intermountain West
Mon-Wed. W-SW flow aloft is expected downstream over the Rockies
and High Plains. Given a complicated synoptic pattern
characterized by split flow and a cut-off low -- confidence is
very low w/regard to sensible weather over the Tri-State area
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Widespread thunderstorms that will be severe and producing heavy
rainfall are developing and expanding over the area. Prevailing
conditions will be Mvfr with occasional ifr conditions through
this period. Winds will be gusty and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
629 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
629 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018 /729 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area
through the night. For this evening, these storms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Through
the night these storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall that could cause flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
636 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W HERNDON             39.91N 100.80W
05/18/2018                   RAWLINS            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THIS REPORT CAME TIME AS THE LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS
            CAUSING NEAR VISIBILITY. REPORT WAS RECEIVED THAT
            BUILDINGS ARE BEING FLOODED IN THE TOWN.

&&

MBULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
648 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 N OBERLIN             39.92N 100.53W
05/18/2018                   DECATUR            KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER IS 7 MILES NORTH OF OBERLIN. 4 TO 5 MILES
            WEST OF HIS LOCATION, HE IS SEEING A ROTATING WALL CLOUD
            WITH MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS. THE STORM WITH THESE FUNNEL
            CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF DECATUR COUNTY.

&&

MBULLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
749 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSZ015-016-029-190115-
Gove KS-Sheridan KS-Graham KS-
749 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...Brief Landspout Tornado Sighted...

At 748 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a landspout tornado
to the northeast of Parks. Conditions continue to favor the
potential for landspouts as storms develop; however at this time it
is unknown which if any storm would produce a landspout. Any
landspouts which develop are expected to pose a limited threat.

Locations impacted include...
Quinter and Park.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

Landspout tornadoes can form with a developing thunderstorm before
rain, hail, and even thunder is observed. Landspout tornadoes are not
usually associated with a wall cloud and are often difficult to
detect with weather radar.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 10025 3912 10045 3930 10032 3918 10010

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
651 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TORNADO          5 NE PARK               39.16N 100.30W
05/18/2018                   SHERIDAN           KS   STORM CHASER

            LANDSPOUT

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
702 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             HERNDON                 39.91N 100.79W
05/18/2018  M1.50 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
706 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HERNDON                 39.91N 100.79W
05/18/2018                   RAWLINS            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THIS IS TO CLARIFY AN EARLIER REPORT. THE WATER IN THE
            BUILDING IS 4 INCHES DEEP.

&&

MBULLER