Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
621 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Just completed an update. Main reason was to expand the severe
thunderstorm watch. Also raised pops and raised rainfall amounts
based on high resolution/CAMs have a very good handle on what is
going on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast still looks on track for this afternoon/evening with
convection expected to form vicinity of leading edge of outflow
boundary. Latest GOES imagery suggests boundary lies along
convergent zone of stable wave clouds and cumulus streets over
northern Greeley and Wichita counties extending up toward Gove
and over to Wakeeney. HRRR has been very consistent last 6 runs or
so with timing of storm initiation around 4-5 pm MDT and location
around highway 96. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests there may be
a couple more hours before CINH is overcome.

Guidance points to storms quickly developing upscale with discrete
storms existing in a narrow time window early on. Not thinking
much of a tornado threat given weak 1 km bulk shear and SRH
values, but best chances would likely be across far southern part
of our forecast area late this afternoon.

Given mean wind flow and high precipitable water values, potential
for heavy rainfall exists in areas which experience training
cells, perhaps with better chances over our north and northeast
counties.

On Saturday, cold front will push through the area with GFS a bit
faster than NAM, accompanied by showers. Current forecast has
Saturday high temps ranging from low 50s NW to low 70s SE, but
frontal timing may require refinement.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Long range guidance suggests that split flow aloft will prevail
over the western CONUS through next week -- and that shortwave
energy digging ashore the PAC NW on Sunday will amplify into a
closed low that stalls over portions of the Intermountain West
Mon-Wed. W-SW flow aloft is expected downstream over the Rockies
and High Plains. Given a complicated synoptic pattern
characterized by split flow and a cut-off low -- confidence is
very low w/regard to sensible weather over the Tri-State area
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Widespread thunderstorms that will be severe and producing heavy
rainfall are developing and expanding over the area. Prevailing
conditions will be Mvfr with occasional ifr conditions through
this period. Winds will be gusty and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1045 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018 /1145 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop after 5 pm
along a line from Tribune to Gove to south of Hill City. Thunderstorms
will increase in coverage as they move north and northeast across
the area this evening, with greatest coverage east of the Kansas-
Colorado border.

The primary threats will be hail to two inches in diameter and
thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to 65 mph which may produce localized
areas of blowing dirt. Heavy rainfall is also expected with some
storms, especially north of Interstate 70. Although a tornado cannot
be ruled out, hail and wind will be the more prevalent threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports will be needed late this afternoon and this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSZ002-182315-
Rawlins KS-
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Ludell, or 10 miles east of Atwood, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Rawlins County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 10074 3976 10074 3962 10085 3971 10105
      3990 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 217DEG 32KT 3980 10084

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             7 NW ATWOOD             39.88N 101.13W
05/18/2018  E0.75 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBULLER