Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Seems to be no real focus for thunderstorm development again today
except for leftover boundaries. Heavy rain continues to be a
threat as storms are slow moving. Upper air shows a weakening
upper ridge with a broad trough forming over the southeast during
the period. Models indicating a front drifting into north GA
Tuesday afternoon/evening with some drier air spreading into the
state. Still looks like basically a diurnal pattern through the
period...although some storms could linger into the overnight
tonight. For Tuesday...have kept pops in the 40 to 50 percent
range. For tomorrow night have dried out the far north after
06z...but left low pops for the remainder of the area. No big
changes to temperatures in the short term.

41

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

SNELSON

Still appears area will see only slow shift to NW flow aloft this
week with broad upper ridge building over the western and central
CONUS and trough over the midwest states. By the weekend, however,
medium range guidance now showing high amplitude trough digging SSE
into the eastern states on Saturday. While we may not see much
cooler temps, could see slightly drier air at sfc and aloft, though
chc of storms will continue with cold air aloft and stronger mid
level flow. Until then, will continue to see mostly diurnally-driven
afternoon and evening convection though with well above average PW,
could also see isolated overnight activity as well. As flow aloft
eventually becomes WNW, could see some development of MCS though not
seeing confirmation of this in model QPF.

Heat indices should remain 95 to 101, which is below advisory
threshold, through the extended though will continue to monitor.
Tropical activity thankfully still not seen in model progs or NHC
outlooks.

&&

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models continue to show an amplifying upper-level
pattern developing through the majority of the extended forecast
period. Frontal boundary settling into the southern portion of the
forecast area as we begin the period concentrates best POPs across
the southern half of the area mid-week. Strong short wave and
associated surface front should increase POPs areawide as we head
into the weekend. With moderate mid-level winds associated with this
system, combined with enhanced forcing and at least moderate
instability, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for an
increased severe thunderstorms threat. Noticeable divergence between
the GFS and the ECMWF for the latter portion of the period, but I
have kept at least chance POPs through the end of this forecast
cycle.

20

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Some mvfr ceilings were lingering...but should continue to improve
to widespread sct-bkn035-045. Showers and thunderstorms should
develop in any location with no real feature to focus on. There
is also the potential showers and storms could linger beyond 00z
this evening into portions of the overnight but not confident
which taf sites would be affected. Winds should remain on
the west side...mostly southwest 5 to 7kt and diminish
overnight. Some potential for ifr again overnight with such a moist
airmass.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements except medium on ifr for Tuesday morning.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  30
Atlanta         75  90  73  90 /  50  50  40  30
Blairsville     67  85  65  85 /  50  50  30  20
Cartersville    72  90  71  90 /  50  50  40  30
Columbus        75  91  75  92 /  50  50  50  50
Gainesville     71  89  71  89 /  50  50  40  30
Macon           74  92  73  91 /  50  50  40  50
Rome            73  91  70  91 /  40  50  40  20
Peachtree City  72  90  72  91 /  50  50  40  40
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
100 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon and tonight, most numerous between 3
and midnight, although isolated storms will continue overnight. A
few of these storms could also be strong, producing gusty winds and
occasional lightning. However, the main hazard from the
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall. The heavy rain could
cause temporary street flooding and ponding of water in low lying
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours each day. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day with strong,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ046-048-162045-
Rockdale GA-Newton GA-
412 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKDALE AND NEWTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Conyers...moving east
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Covington, Oxford, Porterdale, Georgia International Horse
Park, Lakeview Estates, Magnet, Almon, Milstead, Oak Hill and Rocky
Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3358 8407 3371 8403 3368 8381 3346 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 290DEG 9KT 3363 8400

WIND...40MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
521 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ086-112-113-162145-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Montgomery GA-
521 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS...SOUTHERN
EMANUEL AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Normantown, or near
Lyons...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Stillmore, Oak Park, Ailey, Higgston,
Santa Claus, Alston, Lexsy and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3242 8219 3235 8225 3235 8224 3228 8223
      3224 8221 3206 8252 3218 8261 3222 8258
      3235 8244 3235 8241 3238 8241 3251 8226
      3244 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 224DEG 11KT 3229 8234

WIND...40MPH