Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.UPDATE...

18z Aviation update below.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

High PWAT regime continues today along with some aided upper forcing
from a weak shortwave, warranting likely pops area-wide peaking with
daytime heating which could linger a bit longer into the overnight
given how slow the trough axis is to progress. Thermal profiles
indicate tall skinny CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and given how the lapse
rates are not impressive given the well saturated column and how the
last several days have trended, thinking severe convection is not
anticipated and primarily some strong storms instead. Main threats
will be isolated flooding from the precip efficiency, occasional
lightning and gusty winds.

The greater moisture axis does shift farther south into central GA
for Tuesday, though should be enough influence from the
aforementioned upper wave and also a weak front approaching the
north by late afternoon/evening that will still warrant likely pops
for the majority of the area. Storms should have less chance for
flood potential given some mid/upper level drier air advecting in
and resultant PWATs down to about 1.5 inches.

Temp fcst slightly lower today in the upper 80s for most given
greater precip coverage then a bit higher Tuesday with some drier
columns.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models continue to show an amplifying upper-level
pattern developing through the majority of the extended forecast
period. Frontal boundary settling into the southern portion of the
forecast area as we begin the period concentrates best POPs across
the southern half of the area mid-week. Strong short wave and
associated surface front should increase POPs areawide as we head
into the weekend. With moderate mid-level winds associated with this
system, combined with enhanced forcing and at least moderate
instability, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for an
increased severe thunderstorms threat. Noticeable divergence between
the GFS and the ECMWF for the latter portion of the period, but I
have kept at least chance POPs through the end of this forecast
cycle.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Some mvfr ceilings were lingering...but should continue to improve
to widespread sct-bkn035-045. Showers and thunderstorms should
develop in any location with no real feature to focus on. There
is also the potential showers and storms could linger beyond 00z
this evening into portions of the overnight but not confident
which taf sites would be affected. Winds should remain on
the west side...mostly southwesr 5 to 7kt and diminish
overnight. Some potential for ifr again overnight with such a moist
airmass.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements except medium on ifr for Tuesday morning.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  72  90  72 /  70  50  60  40
Atlanta         88  73  89  73 /  70  50  60  40
Blairsville     82  67  84  67 /  70  50  60  30
Cartersville    88  72  90  71 /  70  50  60  40
Columbus        90  75  90  74 /  60  50  70  50
Gainesville     86  72  89  71 /  70  50  60  40
Macon           89  73  90  73 /  60  50  60  40
Rome            89  72  90  71 /  60  40  60  40
Peachtree City  89  72  89  72 /  70  50  70  40
Vidalia         89  74  89  74 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
100 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon and tonight, most numerous between 3
and midnight, although isolated storms will continue overnight. A
few of these storms could also be strong, producing gusty winds and
occasional lightning. However, the main hazard from the
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall. The heavy rain could
cause temporary street flooding and ponding of water in low lying
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours each day. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day with strong,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
107 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ006-008-161745-
Union GA-Fannin GA-
107 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNION AND NORTHEASTERN FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 107 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hurst, or 9 miles east
of Blue Ridge...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blairsville, Suches, Dial, Hemp, Owltown, Margret, Vogel State Park,
Hurst, Jones Creek, Woods Hole Shelter, Gaddistown and Blood Mountain
Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3488 8388 3474 8393 3474 8395 3472 8398
      3468 8399 3467 8403 3464 8404 3473 8426
      3475 8428 3492 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 286DEG 12KT 3481 8416

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE ROSWELL            34.04N  84.34W
07/13/2018                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODED ON HOUZE RD BETWEEN HWY 9 AND MANSELL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800630

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROSWELL                 34.02N  84.36W
07/13/2018                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODING ON HWY 9 NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH OXBO
            RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800631

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ002>005-011-012-019-161815-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-
Floyd GA-
137 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHATTOOGA...WHITFIELD...
EASTERN CATOOSA...SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...WESTERN GORDON...MURRAY AND
NORTHERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 137 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Flint Springs to near Tidings...and moving east
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Dalton, Calhoun, Chatsworth, Ringgold, Varnell, Eton, Tunnel
Hill, Cohutta, Resaca, Plainville, Shannon, Crandall, Pinson, Sumac,
Subligna, Gregory, Lake Marvin, Beaverdale and Villanow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8464 3440 8494 3438 8496 3440 8497
      3438 8498 3439 8501 3429 8502 3434 8539
      3499 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 266DEG 12KT 3504 8496 3441 8528

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
139 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ008-161815-
Union GA-
139 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNION COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Jones Creek, or near
Blairsville...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blairsville, Owltown, Vogel State Park, Track Rock, Jones Creek,
Woods Hole Shelter, Blood Mountain Shelter and Gumlog.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3493 8391 3492 8387 3472 8385 3472 8389
      3474 8394 3472 8397 3474 8409 3480 8409
      3480 8413 3481 8414 3484 8415 3485 8414
      3487 8411 3489 8411 3492 8415 3497 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 264DEG 8KT 3484 8407

WIND...40MPH