Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
917 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.UPDATE...

Current radar showing isolated showers and thunderstorms across
the area. In central Georgia the current trend is mainly downward
as activity starts to wane. Showers and thunderstorms are
continuing to develop generally west of the metro and in far
western central GA in an area of about 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE,
with PWATS around 2 inches or greater, and slow propagating
storms. It is possible to see high rainfall rates which could
possibly lead to flash flooding issues if they sit over an area
for an extended amount of time. Also expecting some showers and
thunderstorms to linger into overnight tonight. Overall, the rest
of the forecast looks to be on track.

Reaves

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

The upper ridge continues over the forecast area today with a very
moist airmass in place. PW values range around two inches. Mostly
diurnal convection being driven mainly by old boundaries and also
what appears to be a weak low over north GA. Thunderstorms
developing over TN and KY and moving southeast into north GA may
affect that area into the overnight hours. High res models hint that
there may be continued development of convective complexes during
the night that drift southeast. However...upper winds are weak
so if convection develops in TN...the drift toward north GA could be
a slow one. In general...northwest GA should be watched for slow
moving storms. The upper ridge gets suppressed a bit on Monday and
a weak trough forms over the OH and TN valley areas. This combined
with the deep moisture could support more coverage of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow. Likely pops still look okay for that time.
Expect no big changes in temperatures.

41

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Only gradual changes in the large scale pattern in the long term
period. Large broad ridge over the western and central CONUS on
Tuesday progged to remain over the western CONUS while slowly
amplify. Troughing over the Great Lakes and midwest progged to
deepen which puts southeast states in increasingly stronger NW flow
and slightly drier air, more so perhaps in north GA, by the end of
the week. Could be a pattern in which we see increased overnight and
next day MCS activity like we saw a few weeks ago, but too soon to
pin that down. Until then, coverage and timing of convection and
min/max temps should remain nearly the same until mid week with some
slightly lower PoPs mid week on. PW values also should drop some so
risk of flooding should subside a little.

Heat indices should remain 95 to 102 through the extended though
will continue to monitor. Tropical activity not seen in model progs
or NHC outlooks.

SNELSON

Previous LONG TERM...
/Monday Night through Saturday/...
/Issued 338 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018/

Medium-range model trends continue to be consistent and in fairly
good agreement through the majority of the Long-Term Forecast period.
Relatively high-amplitude upper pattern persists with the eastern
U.S. under a deepening upper trough. Sharp frontal boundary sags
into the forecast area midweek, lingering over the region through
the latter half of the week before washing out. Some drier air does
try to fill into the north Wednesday/Thursday behind the front, but
not enough to eliminate POPs altogether across the north just yet.
High POPs and seasonal temperatures are expected through the Extended
Forecast period.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Expecting convection in most areas to wane through this evening
with some showers lingering overnight. VFR conditions across the
area currently, but expecting MVFR conditions through the night
with the possibility of fog as well as lower IFR cigs for Monday
morning. Have included a tempo for TRSA and gusts for afternoon
convection on Monday. Winds are mainly SE and light/calm, and
should become southwesterly by daybreak tomorrow. Overall, winds
should remain light, less than 6-10kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on lower cigs Monday morning. Medium
confidence on all other elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  89  72  89 /  30  60  50  60
Atlanta         74  89  73  89 /  40  60  50  60
Blairsville     67  84  67  83 /  40  70  50  60
Cartersville    72  89  72  89 /  40  70  40  60
Columbus        75  91  75  90 /  50  60  50  60
Gainesville     72  87  72  88 /  40  70  50  60
Macon           73  90  73  89 /  30  60  50  60
Rome            72  90  72  89 /  40  60  40  60
Peachtree City  72  90  73  89 /  40  60  50  60
Vidalia         74  90  74  90 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Reaves

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
949 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

GAZ043-044-160215-
Douglas GA-South Fulton GA-
949 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 949 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chattahoochee Hill
Country, or 12 miles south of Douglasville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

  HAZARD...Frequent lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chattahoochee Hill Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3367 8472 3359 8463 3351 8472 3351 8477
      3356 8482 3356 8483 3357 8481 3358 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 043DEG 3KT 3357 8474

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