Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Diurnal heating combined with forcing from a low pressure system
racing across Kentucky will provide scattered thunderstorms for the
area this afternoon. Models have underestimated the coverage of the
storms so far but are beginning to catch up, estimating a wave of
convection that will leave the area later this evening. An Upper
level ridge building in along the Gulf coast should help to keep
storms slightly weaker, and more scattered/unorganized than they my
be otherwise but a Marginal risk for a few severe storms will be
possible for the forecast area. Tomorrow, convection is expected to
be even more widespread as the upper level flow begins to turn from
out of the northwest, and impulses ahead of a stronger low pressure
system out of the midwest looks to push through.

Temperatures are expected to continue on
the warm side with heat index values across central GA ranging from
100 to 106. Have issued a heat advisory for the majority of central
GA today and will monitor conditions for Tuesday to see if another
one will be needed tomorrow.

22

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term portion begins as perhaps the most active period of
the entire extended. We will see a strong shortwave arrive late in
the day from the Tennessee Valley. This will coincide with peak
heating for Wed afternoon and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Associated cold pool with shortwave looks to drop 500mb temps to
around -9C, sufficient for some robust updrafts and decent hail
potential. Should also see some good wind potential as downdraft
CAPE increases through the afternoon as a likely line of storms
approaches. Have gone with highest pops for northern tier for now
but could certainly see pops needing to be raised for remainder as
Wed approaches with potential for a decent coverage event.

Focus will shift to Central GA for Thu afternoon as shortwave
traverses the remainder of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
additional small pop activity across the north although mid level
temps will be warming by this time period.

Some drying noted for the weekend, especially across NE sections
where will only carry isolated pops for Sat. Upper level high
builds in north of the area through the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast through early next week. Eventually some deep layer
moisture will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature
to bring higher pops back to the area for early next week.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ongoing scattered SHRA/TSRA around TAF areas, currently impacting
MCN and ATL sites. A line of forcing coming from NW GA will keep
scattered SHRA/TSRA around the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Expecting VFR conditions otherwise in regards to
ceilings and VSBYs. Light winds out of the west at ATL, swinging
from out of the SW early tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in convective coverage this afternoon.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  91 /  30  50  50  50
Atlanta         75  91  74  90 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     66  85  67  86 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    72  92  72  90 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        76  94  76  93 /  30  40  30  40
Gainesville     72  90  71  88 /  30  50  40  50
Macon           74  94  74  93 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  20  40  40  50
Peachtree City  73  92  72  90 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         75  94  75  92 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Harris...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Montgomery...
Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
532 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-262145-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
532 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Heat Advisory In Effect For Central Georgia...

Hot temperatures combined with high moisture values will result in
heat indices around 105 degrees this afternoon. Please see the
latest heat advisory product issued by this office for further
details.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon. Isolated storms will be strong to
severe, with the main hazards damaging winds, large hail, frequent
lightning, and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be an enhanced chance of strong to severe storms late
Wednesday into Wednesday night as an upper level storm system
moves across the area bringing likely storm coverage to North
Georgia.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through next week, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours with few storms becoming strong to severe each day
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated flooding from
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
601 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ053-054-056-067-252230-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-
601 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...EASTERN COWETA...
WESTERN SPALDING AND NORTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 601 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Sandy Creek to near Hogansville...and moving
southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, Fayetteville, Greenville, Peachtree City, Tyrone, Senoia,
Grantville, Luthersville, Brooks, Moreland, Sharpsburg, Turin,
Haralson, Woolsey, Lone Oak, East Newnan, Starrs Mill, Inman, Rocky
Mount and Saint Marks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3353 8456 3338 8439 3337 8440 3335 8439
      3335 8435 3334 8434 3322 8438 3321 8440
      3320 8447 3318 8451 3315 8452 3302 8475
      3315 8486 3322 8486 3323 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 312DEG 27KT 3349 8451 3315 8487

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
601 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ112-113-252230-
Toombs GA-Montgomery GA-
601 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TOOMBS AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 601 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Vidalia, or 7 miles
northwest of Lyons...moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Vidalia, Higgston and Santa Claus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3219 8251 3232 8248 3230 8235 3229 8235
      3229 8232 3215 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 269DEG 5KT 3226 8244

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

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