Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Diurnal heating combined with forcing from a low pressure system
racing across Kentucky will provide scattered thunderstorms for the
area this afternoon. Models have underestimated the coverage of the
storms so far but are beginning to catch up, estimating a wave of
convection that will leave the area later this evening. An Upper
level ridge building in along the Gulf coast should help to keep
storms slightly weaker, and more scattered/unorganized than they my
be otherwise but a Marginal risk for a few severe storms will be
possible for the forecast area. Tomorrow, convection is expected to
be even more widespread as the upper level flow begins to turn from
out of the northwest, and impulses ahead of a stronger low pressure
system out of the midwest looks to push through.

Temperatures are expected to continue on
the warm side with heat index values across central GA ranging from
100 to 106. Have issued a heat advisory for the majority of central
GA today and will monitor conditions for Tuesday to see if another
one will be needed tomorrow.

22

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term portion begins as perhaps the most active period of
the entire extended. We will see a strong shortwave arrive late in
the day from the Tennessee Valley. This will coincide with peak
heating for Wed afternoon and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Associated cold pool with shortwave looks to drop 500mb temps to
around -9C, sufficient for some robust updrafts and decent hail
potential. Should also see some good wind potential as downdraft
CAPE increases through the afternoon as a likely line of storms
approaches. Have gone with highest pops for northern tier for now
but could certainly see pops needing to be raised for remainder as
Wed approaches with potential for a decent coverage event.

Focus will shift to Central GA for Thu afternoon as shortwave
traverses the remainder of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
additional small pop activity across the north although mid level
temps will be warming by this time period.

Some drying noted for the weekend, especially across NE sections
where will only carry isolated pops for Sat. Upper level high
builds in north of the area through the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast through early next week. Eventually some deep layer
moisture will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature
to bring higher pops back to the area for early next week.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ongoing scattered SHRA/TSRA around TAF areas, currently impacting
MCN and ATL sites. A line of forcing coming from NW GA will keep
scattered SHRA/TSRA around the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Expecting VFR conditions otherwise in regards to
ceilings and VSBYs. Light winds out of the west at ATL, swinging
from out of the SW early tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in convective coverage this afternoon.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  91 /  30  50  50  50
Atlanta         75  91  74  90 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     66  85  67  86 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    72  92  72  90 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        76  94  76  93 /  30  40  30  40
Gainesville     72  90  71  88 /  30  50  40  50
Macon           74  94  74  93 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  20  40  40  50
Peachtree City  73  92  72  90 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         75  94  75  92 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Harris...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Montgomery...
Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Heat Advisory In Effect For Central Georgia...

Hot temperatures combined with high moisture values will result in
heat indices around 105 degrees this afternoon. Please see the
latest heat advisory product issued by this office for further
details.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon. Isolated storms will be strong to
severe,with the main hazards damaging winds, frequent lightning,
and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be an enhanced chance of strong to severe storms late
Wednesday into Wednesday night as an upper level storm system
moves across the area bringing likely storm coverage to North
Georgia.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through next week, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours with few storms becoming strong to severe each day
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated flooding from
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ007-013-252015-
Gilmer GA-Pickens GA-
344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER AND PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Cartecay to Hinton...and moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Jasper, Talking Rock, Sequoyah Lake, Cartecay, Lake Tamarack,
Talmadge and Roy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3458 8430 3458 8433 3457 8435 3452 8434
      3439 8443 3438 8458 3441 8458 3441 8462
      3442 8463 3466 8442 3467 8424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 269DEG 13KT 3464 8441 3445 8458

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ008-009-252015-
Union GA-Towns GA-
352 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION AND
NORTHWESTERN TOWNS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ivy Log to Jones Creek...and moving east at 15
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Blairsville, Gumlog, Owltown, Ivy Log and Alexanders Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3473 8397 3477 8409 3480 8409 3480 8411
      3481 8411 3499 8405 3499 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 271DEG 12KT 3496 8401 3483 8408

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW PORTERDALE        33.55N  83.91W
06/25/2018                   NEWTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED MULTIPLE MEDIUM-SIZED TREES
            DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 162 AND LOVERS LANE.
            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800431

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ002-004-252030-
Whitfield GA-Walker GA-
355 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 7 miles east of
Lafayette...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Naomi, Mill Creek and Villanow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3472 8496 3464 8501 3468 8522 3477 8520
      3478 8516 3477 8516 3477 8515 3479 8514
      3480 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 271DEG 15KT 3472 8516

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SOCIAL CIRCLE       33.66N  83.75W
06/25/2018                   WALTON             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON ALCOVA DR NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            WITH COUNTY LINE RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800432

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ012-020-021-030-031-252030-
Polk GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
400 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK...NORTHERN
CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN GORDON...BARTOW AND NORTHEASTERN PAULDING
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from
Fairmount to Cassville to near Taylorsville...and moving east at 35
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Canton, Cartersville, Rockmart, Euharlee, Emerson, Ball Ground,
Aragon, White, Waleska, Taylorsville, Cassville, Fairmount, Ranger,
Burnt Hickory Ridge, Red Top Mountain State Park, Funkhouser, Lake
Arrowhead, Little River Landing, George Washington Carver St Pk and
Salacoa Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3450 8472 3451 8465 3441 8465 3441 8458
      3438 8458 3438 8440 3437 8440 3438 8432
      3430 8435 3408 8469 3408 8473 3404 8474
      3402 8477 3401 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 259DEG 32KT 3445 8469 3424 8484 3409 8495

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH