Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
204 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 737 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Zonal upper level flow is giving way as an upper level ridge builds
along the gulf coast. This upper level ridge is expected to continue
to strengthen through the short term becoming centered over Southern
AL/GA and northern FL by 12z Tue. The upper level flow becomes more
Northwesterly with impulses continuing to move across the area.
These waves will help to produce diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms Today and Tuesday...but seeing a slight diminishing
trend in coverage as the ridge builds. Only looking for isolated to
scattered coverage with storms today and Tuesday but can not rule
out a storm or two becoming severe both days.

Temperatures are expected to continue on the warm side with heat
index values across central GA ranging from 100 to 106. Have issued
a heat advisory for the majority of central GA today and will
monitor conditions for Tuesday to see if another one will be needed
tomorrow.

01

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term portion begins as perhaps the most active period of
the entire extended. We will see a strong shortwave arrive late in
the day from the Tennessee Valley. This will coincide with peak
heating for Wed afternoon and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Associated cold pool with shortwave looks to drop 500mb temps to
around -9C, sufficient for some robust updrafts and decent hail
potential. Should also see some good wind potential as downdraft
CAPE increases through the afternoon as a likely line of storms
approaches. Have gone with highest pops for northern tier for now
but could certainly see pops needing to be raised for remainder as
Wed approaches with potential for a decent coverage event.

Focus will shift to Central GA for Thu afternoon as shortwave
traverses the remainder of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
additional small pop activity across the north although mid level
temps will be warming by this time period.

Some drying noted for the weekend, especially across NE sections
where will only carry isolated pops for Sat. Upper level high
builds in north of the area through the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast through early next week. Eventually some deep layer
moisture will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature
to bring higher pops back to the area for early next week.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ongoing scattered SHRA/TSRA around TAF areas, currently impacting
MCN and ATL sites. A line of forcing coming from NW GA will keep
scattered SHRA/TSRA around the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Expecting VFR conditions otherwise in regards to
ceilings and VSBYs. Light winds out of the west at ATL, swinging
from out of the SW early tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in convective coverage this afternoon.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  72  91  71 /  30  30  50  50
Atlanta         92  75  91  74 /  40  30  50  40
Blairsville     86  67  85  67 /  50  30  50  40
Cartersville    92  71  92  72 /  40  30  50  40
Columbus        96  75  94  76 /  40  30  40  30
Gainesville     91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
Macon           96  75  93  74 /  30  30  50  40
Rome            92  72  92  72 /  40  20  40  40
Peachtree City  93  73  92  73 /  40  30  50  30
Vidalia         96  76  94  75 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Harris...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Montgomery...
Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Heat Advisory In Effect For Central Georgia...

Hot temperatures combined with high moisture values will result in
heat indices around 105 degrees this afternoon. Please see the
latest heat advisory product issued by this office for further
details.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon. Isolated storms will be strong to
severe,with the main hazards damaging winds, frequent lightning,
and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be an enhanced chance of strong to severe storms late
Wednesday into Wednesday night as an upper level storm system
moves across the area bringing likely storm coverage to North
Georgia.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through next week, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours with few storms becoming strong to severe each day
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated flooding from
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
212 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ033-034-043>045-055-251845-
De Kalb GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Clayton GA-Gwinnett GA-
South Fulton GA-
212 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DE KALB...FULTON...EASTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON...AND SOUTHERN GWINNETT UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

At 212 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Lilburn to near Sandtown...and moving east at 15
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Decatur, East Point, Forest Park, Snellville, Riverdale,
College Park, Lilburn, Chamblee, Norcross, Doraville, Clarkston,
Morrow, Hapeville, Stone Mountain, Avondale Estates, Grayson, Lake
City, Pine Lake and North Decatur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3369 8470 3374 8459 3375 8458 3374 8458
      3378 8453 3397 8418 3388 8386 3384 8391
      3365 8425 3365 8428 3363 8427 3357 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 290DEG 13KT 3391 8418 3369 8460

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
217 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ067-251845-
Meriwether GA-
217 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

At 217 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Durand, or 7 miles
southwest of Greenville...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Greenville, Manchester, Woodbury, Warm Springs, Stovall, Raleigh,
Durand, Harris City, Odessadale and Imlac.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3307 8453 3305 8452 3304 8454 3301 8454
      3298 8452 3297 8453 3295 8452 3291 8453
      3291 8451 3288 8451 3285 8457 3284 8465
      3284 8470 3286 8475 3287 8475 3287 8486
      3301 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 267DEG 13KT 3293 8477

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH