Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Diurnal heating combined with forcing from a low pressure system
racing across Kentucky will provide scattered thunderstorms for the
area this afternoon. Models have underestimated the coverage of the
storms so far but are beginning to catch up, estimating a wave of
convection that will leave the area later this evening. An Upper
level ridge building in along the Gulf coast should help to keep
storms slightly weaker, and more scattered/unorganized than they my
be otherwise but a Marginal risk for a few severe storms will be
possible for the forecast area. Tomorrow, convection is expected to
be even more widespread as the upper level flow begins to turn from
out of the northwest, and impulses ahead of a stronger low pressure
system out of the midwest looks to push through.

Temperatures are expected to continue on
the warm side with heat index values across central GA ranging from
100 to 106. Have issued a heat advisory for the majority of central
GA today and will monitor conditions for Tuesday to see if another
one will be needed tomorrow.

22

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term portion begins as perhaps the most active period of
the entire extended. We will see a strong shortwave arrive late in
the day from the Tennessee Valley. This will coincide with peak
heating for Wed afternoon and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Associated cold pool with shortwave looks to drop 500mb temps to
around -9C, sufficient for some robust updrafts and decent hail
potential. Should also see some good wind potential as downdraft
CAPE increases through the afternoon as a likely line of storms
approaches. Have gone with highest pops for northern tier for now
but could certainly see pops needing to be raised for remainder as
Wed approaches with potential for a decent coverage event.

Focus will shift to Central GA for Thu afternoon as shortwave
traverses the remainder of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
additional small pop activity across the north although mid level
temps will be warming by this time period.

Some drying noted for the weekend, especially across NE sections
where will only carry isolated pops for Sat. Upper level high
builds in north of the area through the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast through early next week. Eventually some deep layer
moisture will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature
to bring higher pops back to the area for early next week.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ongoing scattered SHRA/TSRA around TAF areas, currently impacting
MCN and ATL sites. A line of forcing coming from NW GA will keep
scattered SHRA/TSRA around the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Expecting VFR conditions otherwise in regards to
ceilings and VSBYs. Light winds out of the west at ATL, swinging
from out of the SW early tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in convective coverage this afternoon.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  91 /  30  50  50  50
Atlanta         75  91  74  90 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     66  85  67  86 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    72  92  72  90 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        76  94  76  93 /  30  40  30  40
Gainesville     72  90  71  88 /  30  50  40  50
Macon           74  94  74  93 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  20  40  40  50
Peachtree City  73  92  72  90 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         75  94  75  92 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Harris...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Montgomery...
Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-260930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
530 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Heat Advisory In Effect For Central Georgia...

Hot temperatures combined with high moisture values will result in
heat indices around 105 degrees this afternoon. Please see the
latest heat advisory product issued by this office for further
details.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon. Isolated storms will be strong to
severe,with the main hazards damaging winds, frequent lightning,
and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be an enhanced chance of strong to severe storms late
Wednesday into Wednesday night as an upper level storm system
moves across the area bringing likely storm coverage to North
Georgia.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through next week, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours with few storms becoming strong to severe each day
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated flooding from
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ056-068-070-252000-
Lamar GA-Spalding GA-Pike GA-
335 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMAR...SOUTHEASTERN SPALDING AND
NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rover, or near
Griffin...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Griffin, Barnesville, Milner, Williamson, Orchard Hill, Aldora, East
Griffin, Goggins, Chappel Mill, Rover, Liberty Hill, Johnstonville
and Experiment.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3327 8426 3321 8412 3320 8412 3320 8411
      3317 8404 3308 8404 3299 8413 3299 8419
      3317 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 305DEG 23KT 3321 8429

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             2 N CHATSWORTH          34.79N  84.77W
06/25/2018  E1.00 INCH       MURRAY             GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL BETWEEN ETON AND
            CHATSWORTH. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800430

DJN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
342 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ002-252015-
Walker GA-
342 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

At 341 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was 4 miles
northwest of Lafayette...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lafayette, Naomi, Linwood and Noble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3477 8520 3477 8516 3473 8516 3473 8517
      3472 8517 3472 8516 3467 8517 3469 8537
      3478 8534 3480 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 272DEG 11KT 3473 8530

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

GAZ007-013-252015-
Gilmer GA-Pickens GA-
344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER AND PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Cartecay to Hinton...and moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Jasper, Talking Rock, Sequoyah Lake, Cartecay, Lake Tamarack,
Talmadge and Roy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3458 8430 3458 8433 3457 8435 3452 8434
      3439 8443 3438 8458 3441 8458 3441 8462
      3442 8463 3466 8442 3467 8424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 269DEG 13KT 3464 8441 3445 8458

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH