Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main forecast concerns in the short term period are coverage of
afternoon/evening convection and influence, if any, from weak wedge
front/sfc ridging moving in late tonight. Afternoon convection
already in progress as we've seen last few days. Coverage highest in
eastcentral GA near KAHN and just outside of far NW Georgia east of
KCHA. Convection complex in northern FL may have been helpful by
inhibiting convection over middle GA this afternoon. Have tweaked
PoPs down some there. Expect convection to be quite strong with a
few likely becoming severe, lightning, damaging winds and hail up to
1 inch are the primary threats based on observed SBCAPE 2000-3000
J/kg and very weak vertical wind shear. Convection should diminish
quickly after 01Z and mostly dissipated after 04Z, though isolated
SHRA could linger overnight.

Weak wedge front expected to move into NE Georgia by 06Z. Can't rule
out weak/elevated convection developing along or behind front as
hinted at by some hires guidance. Nothing too strong or widespread.
Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon/evening as weak NW
flow still in place though somewhat weaker than this afternoon.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Did not make any fundamental changes to the Long-Term Forecast
trends with this cycle. Still looking at a diurnally favored
convective cycle each day through the period. Broad, weak upper
trough over the region through the work week yields to the building
upper ridge over the the southern plains by this weekend and into
early next week. However, with ample moisture remaining over the
region, ridge does not look sufficiently dominant to stifle all
afternoon/evening convection.

20

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/Issued 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018/
Guidance continues to indicate a continued moist/tropical regime
through the fcst period with daily diurnally driven showers and
storms. Difficult to pin point any other period of enhanced
convection though some weak impulses from the north could help
focus. Models are in agreement with some amplified upper ridging
just west of the region for the weekend, which could limit some
coverage but not thinking strong enough to suppress the overall
chance of development lower than 30-40 percent. Each afternoon and
evening could see a few strong to severe storms similar to what
has been the story in the short term recently. Not much variation
in temps either, with daytime max values mainly in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Areas of TSRA with SCT035-040 with areas of BKN coverage this
afternoon and evening, which should diminish after 02Z with greatest
coverage from now through 22-23Z. Sfc winds will become E at 4-8kt
after 08Z at KAHN and 10Z at Atlanta metro airports then ESE
Tuesday. With this back door cold front, will also see near IFR cigs
behind them which will break up after 15Z. Middle GA airports
including KCSG and KMCN will only see brief period of near IFR cigs
around 13-15Z. Another round of TSRA likely Tuesday afternoon and
have include Prob30 at KATL after 19Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA likelihood and coverage.
Medium on IFR cigs Tuesday morning.
High on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  68  89 /  50  40  30  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  88 /  60  50  50  50
Blairsville     63  79  64  83 /  50  50  30  50
Cartersville    68  86  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  89 /  50  60  40  60
Gainesville     68  81  68  87 /  50  40  40  50
Macon           70  87  70  90 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            68  87  69  88 /  50  50  40  50
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  60  60  50  60
Vidalia         72  88  72  90 /  50  70  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120745-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into this
evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with the main
hazards being strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe
each day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
514 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ066-067-112200-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
514 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TROUP AND
SOUTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Louise, or near
LaGrange...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
LaGrange, Saint Marks, Stovall, Mountville, Big Springs, Louise,
Odessadale and Smiths Crossroad.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3296 8507 3314 8502 3313 8475 3287 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 282DEG 7KT 3304 8497

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
515 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ079-080-112200-
Taylor GA-Talbot GA-
515 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Howard, or 9 miles
west of Butler...moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler, Junction City, Howard, Baldwinville, Charing, Prattsburg,
Wesley Church and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3243 8439 3245 8441 3248 8441 3249 8443
      3252 8443 3254 8445 3256 8445 3256 8449
      3260 8452 3272 8436 3258 8414 3241 8436
      3243 8436 3243 8438 3241 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 317DEG 5KT 3261 8439

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
519 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S SUMMERVILLE         34.45N  85.35W
06/11/2018                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS A TREE ON A POWERLINE ON
            GREESON STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800323

KOVACIK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
527 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ048-058-059-112215-
Butts GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
527 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BUTTS...SOUTHWESTERN
JASPER AND SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 527 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Turtle Cove, or 8
miles northeast of Jackson...moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jackson, Monticello, Flovilla, Stewart, Eudora, Turtle Cove,
Worthville, North Alcovy, McElheneys Crossroads and Stark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3347 8379 3327 8360 3318 8382 3319 8384
      3320 8384 3319 8385 3320 8387 3320 8391
      3338 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 331DEG 6KT 3337 8385

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
528 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ059-060-072-073-112215-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
528 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...NORTHEASTERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 528 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Resseaus Crossroads,
or 10 miles southwest of Eatonton...moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gray, Ethridge, Bradley, Wayside, Browns Crossing, Haddock, Resseaus
Crossroads, Round Oak, Stanfordville and Blountsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3329 8354 3321 8331 3296 8339 3306 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 021DEG 8KT 3319 8347

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

GAZ045-046-048-057-112215-
De Kalb GA-Rockdale GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
529 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DE KALB...ROCKDALE...
WESTERN NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Snapfinger, or 9 miles
southeast of Decatur...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McDonough, Conyers, Covington, Stockbridge, Lithonia, Porterdale,
Lakeview Estates, Blacksville, Magnet, Almon, Belmont, Richardson
Park, Arabia Mountain, Redan, Hidden Valley Park, Panola Mountain
State Park, Flippen, Kelleytown, Oak Hill and Eagles Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3377 8416 3358 8385 3339 8418 3355 8427
      3355 8426 3358 8426 3359 8424 3361 8426
      3363 8426 3365 8429 3365 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 322DEG 8KT 3366 8420

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH